Result
0:3
14/03/2025 at 23:05 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- MEXICO: Liga MX - Clausura - Round 12
- Referee: Perez S. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, FOX Sports 2 |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | TUDN |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.31 | 2.03 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 34% | 66% |
| Goal Attempts |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Shots off Goal |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 17 | 23 |
| Touches in the Opposition Box |
|---|
| 10 | 20 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (237/311) | 88% (542/614) |
| Passes in the final third |
|---|
| 59% (41/70) | 71% (115/162) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (2/13) | 22% (4/18) |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (8/12) | 67% (8/12) |
| Clearances Total |
|---|
| 24 | 19 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 15', 0 - 1, Gallardo J. ⚽, Vega A. (A),
- 34', Quinones L. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 46', Gustavo Ferrareis ↓, Garnica B. ↑,
- 46', Pachuca Martinez J. R. ↓, Gomez E. ↑,
- 57', 0 - 2, Paulinho ⚽,
- 58', Lopez I. ↓, Romero F. ↑,
- 62', 0 - 3, Vega A. (Pen),
- 67', Herrera H. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
- 67', Gallardo J. ↓, Violante I. ↑,
- 69', Romero F. 🟨,
- 77', Vega A. ↓, Helinho ↑,
- 77', Ruiz M. ↓, Arteaga V. ↑,
- 87', Fedorco J. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Puebla
18% | Draw
22.7% | Toluca
59.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Puebla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Puebla than the current prediction. (+1.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+1.2%)
Puebla - Toluca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
5.25 ↑
(4.73) |
4.15 ↓
(4.29) |
1.59 ↓
(1.62) |
6%
(6.1%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Puebla - Toluca?
Users Predictions:
Toluca will win
(9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Puebla won 1.
- Puebla is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
- Toluca is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
- In this match Toluca is a favorite.
- There will not play in Puebla: Cavallini L.
(Knee Injury)
Gomez E.
(Concussion)
- Last 20 head-to-head matches Puebla won 7 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 26:29 (average 1.3:1.5).
- Including matches at home between the teams Puebla won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13:9 (average 1.4:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Puebla won against Toluca?
Puebla has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Puebla?
Toluca has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Puebla - Toluca were as follows:
22.10.2024
Toluca
-
Puebla
5:0
26.01.2024
Puebla
-
Toluca
1:1
31.10.2023
Toluca
-
Puebla
0:1
07.04.2023
Puebla
-
Toluca
1:2
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Pachuca | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:2 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10:7 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:3 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Monterrey | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Cruz Azul | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7:4 | 3 | 5 |
| 6 | Club America | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Necaxa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:5 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Mazatlan FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Atlas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7:8 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Club Tijuana | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Santos Laguna | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Guadalajara Chivas | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Atl. San Luis | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Puebla | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | UNAM Pumas | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:6 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Club Leon | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Juarez | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 2 |
| 18 | Queretaro | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:6 | -5 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
