Result
3:1
13/09/2025 at 23:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 8
- Referee: Hernandez Andrade K. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Caliente TV, Tubi TV |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.61 | 1.35 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 62% | 38% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 27 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 91% (476/522) | 82% (258/313) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.61 | 1.35 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.73 | 1.07 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 27 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 13 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 16 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 9 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 91% (476/522) | 82% (258/313) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 65% (31/48) | 54% (27/50) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 83% (125/151) | 70% (46/66) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (4/16) | 9% (1/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.98 | 0.19 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 17 | 9 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 80% (12/15) | 65% (13/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 14 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.07 | 0.73 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.07 | -2.27 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 31', 1 - 0, Pereira F. ⚽, Morales R. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 55', Rivas J. ↓, Moreno I. ↑,
- 55', Gomez E. ↓, Castillo R. ↑,
- 63', Navarro E. 🟨,
- 69', Castro N. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
- 71', Organista A. ↓, Gonzalez O. ↑,
- 71', Gamarra P. ↓, Rey L. ↑,
- 76', Navarro E. ↓, Araos A. ↑,
- 80', 2 - 0, Gallardo J. ⚽, Angulo J. (A),
- 80', Angulo J. ↓, Herrera H. ↑,
- 80', Morales R. ↓, Virgen O. ↑,
- 85', 2 - 1, Monarrez F. (Pen),
- 89', 3 - 1, Virgen O. ⚽, Vega A. (A),
- 90+1', Barbosa D. ↓, Simon S. ↑,
- 90+1', Vega A. ↓, Estrada J. ↑,
Chances of winning
Toluca
70.4% | Draw
18.1% | Puebla
11.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)Puebla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)
Toluca - Puebla Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.34 ↑
(1.29) |
5.18 ↓
(5.54) |
8.16 ↓
(8.23) |
6.5%
(8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Toluca - Puebla?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toluca: 64.6% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 18).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 3.
- Recent performances by Toluca have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Puebla is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- In this match, Toluca is the undisputed favorite.
- There will not play in Toluca: Helinho
(Injury)
Luan
(Injury)
- There will not play in Puebla: Cavallini L.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Puebla: Guerra E.
(Muscle Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 31:26. (average 1.6:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:13. (average 1.9:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Puebla?
Toluca has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Puebla won against Toluca?
Puebla has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Puebla were as follows:
14.03.2025
Puebla
-
Toluca
0:3
22.10.2024
Toluca
-
Puebla
5:0
26.01.2024
Puebla
-
Toluca
1:1
31.10.2023
Toluca
-
Puebla
0:1
07.04.2023
Puebla
-
Toluca
1:2
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca ✔ | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 39:16 | 23 | 32 |
| 2 | Tigres UANL ✔ | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 31:14 | 17 | 32 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul ✔ | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 27:17 | 10 | 32 |
| 4 | Club America ✔ | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 31:16 | 15 | 31 |
| 5 | Monterrey ✔ | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 30:24 | 6 | 30 |
| 6 | Guadalajara Chivas | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 24:20 | 4 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Tijuana | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 26:19 | 7 | 21 |
| 8 | Pachuca | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:17 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Juarez | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 24:25 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 | Atl. San Luis | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 20:20 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Atlas | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 24:33 | -9 | 16 |
| 12 | UNAM Pumas | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 17:22 | -5 | 15 |
| 13 | Santos Laguna | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 17:23 | -6 | 14 |
| 14 | Queretaro | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 15:25 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Mazatlan FC | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 19:27 | -8 | 13 |
| 16 | Club Leon | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13:27 | -14 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15:27 | -12 | 10 |
| 18 | Puebla | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 19:38 | -19 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Toluca is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Tigres UANL is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Cruz Azul is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Club America is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Monterrey is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
