Result
0:2
20/02/2026 at 15:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 23
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Angola | Z Sports 1 |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 7 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.13 | 1.29 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 66% | 34% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 90% (439/486) | 77% (189/245) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.13 | 1.29 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.60 | 1.66 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 90% (439/486) | 77% (189/245) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 63% (36/57) | 37% (14/38) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 80% (110/138) | 66% (48/73) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (10/30) | 31% (4/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.40 | 0.29 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 23 | 9 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 78% (7/9) | 58% (11/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 57 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 14 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.66 | 0.60 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.34 | 0.60 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 4', 0 - 1, Bebeto (Penalty Awarded),
- 17', Aiko M. ↓, Felix H. ↑,
- 41', Doue G. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Otavio ↓, Scholze M. ↑,
- 46', Doue G. ↓, Brahimi B. ↑,
- 61', Moreira P. 🟨,
- 62', Hodge J. 🟨,
- 65', Jansson K. ↓, Stoica I. ↑,
- 67', Hodge J. ↓, Sithole S. ↑,
- 67', Cicero ↓, Tavares H. ↑,
- 69', Sithole S. 🟨,
- 73', Encada J. ↓, Moustier T. ↑,
- 73', Jovane ↓, Rodrigo Pinho ↑,
- 75', 0 - 2, Pedro Maranhao ⚽,
- 77', Cicero 🟨,
- 87', Medina B. 🟨,
- 89', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Manso T. ↑,
- 89', Bebeto ↓, Afonso J. ↑,
- 90+5', Luan Patrick 🟥,
Chances of winning
Estrela da Amadora
33.1% | Draw
31.9% | Tondela
34.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Estrela da Amadora's form might have worsened.Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (+5.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Estrela da Amadora, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-3%)
Estrela da Amadora - Tondela Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.85 ↑
(2.52) |
2.98 ↓
(3.26) |
2.71 ↓
(3.05) |
5.5%
(3.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Estrela da Amadora - Tondela?
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. Estrela will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Tondela will win (votes: 1 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estrela: 28.1% – 78.5%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 4 - 100%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH 0 - Estrela (1.94) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- DNB - Tondela (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Estrela (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tondela (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).
- Both teams are struggling and far from their best.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Estrela: Bernardo Schappo
(Yellow Cards)
Jansson K.
(Injury)
Kalley Y.
(Inactive)
Langa B.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Tondela: Maviram E.
(Injury)
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.3:0.3).
- Including home match between the teams, Estrela won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.
How many head-to-head matches has Estrela da Amadora won against Tondela?
Estrela da Amadora has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Tondela won against Estrela da Amadora?
Tondela has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Estrela da Amadora - Tondela were as follows:
21.09.2025
Tondela
-
Estrela da Amadora
0:0
26.02.2023
Estrela da Amadora
-
Tondela
0:0
05.09.2022
Tondela
-
Estrela da Amadora
1:1
Latest results of Estrela da Amadora
Latest results of Tondela
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 26 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 52:10 | 42 | 69 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 64:14 | 50 | 62 |
| 3 | Benfica | 26 | 18 | 8 | 0 | 55:17 | 38 | 62 |
| 4 | Braga | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 52:25 | 27 | 46 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 39:27 | 12 | 42 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 32:22 | 10 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 47:42 | 5 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 31:38 | -7 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 29:39 | -10 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 26:41 | -15 | 29 |
| 11 | Rio Ave | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 26:45 | -19 | 27 |
| 12 | Arouca | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 33:55 | -22 | 26 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 23:31 | -8 | 25 |
| 14 | Estrela | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 29:45 | -16 | 25 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 29:38 | -9 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 25 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 26 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
