New York City vs Toronto FC – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football MLS
Football MLS New York City - Toronto FC
Result
3:1
03/07/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • MLS
  • Where to Watch on TV:
usaUsaMLS Season Pass
worldWorldEA Sports FC

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.381.40
Ball Possession
55%45%
Total shots
1111
Shots on target
63
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
56
Passes
83% (401/484)80% (310/386)
Yellow Cards
14
Expected Goals (xG)
1.381.40
xG on target (xGOT)
2.731.49
Total shots
1111
Shots on target
63
Shots off target
35
Blocked Shots
23
Shots inside the Box
88
Shots outside the Box
32
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
56
Touches in opposition box
2219
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
01
Free Kicks
1210
Passes
83% (401/484)80% (310/386)
Long passes
49% (25/51)47% (30/64)
Passes in final third
68% (69/101)62% (68/109)
Crosses
17% (1/6)17% (4/23)
Expected assists (xA)
0.680.89
Throw-ins
2124
Fouls
1012
Tackles
61% (11/18)82% (18/22)
Duels won
4755
Clearances
3725
Interceptions
1010
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
23
xGOT faced
1.492.73
Goals prevented
1.49-0.27

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 2', Long K. 🟨,
  • 19', Longstaff M. 🟨,
  • 20', 1 - 0, Wolf H. ⚽, Ilenic M. (A),
  • 25', Martinez A. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 49', 2 - 0, Ilenic M. ⚽, Ojeda A. (A), O'Neill A. (A2)
  • 58', Petretta R. ↓, Laryea R. ↑,
  • 58', Spicer T. ↓, Kerr D. ↑,
  • 67', Dominguez M. 🟨,
  • 70', 2 - 1, Romero T. (Own goal),
  • 70', Risa B. ↓, O'Toole K. ↑,
  • 70', Longstaff M. ↓, Henry M. ↑,
  • 71', Henry M. 🟨,
  • 74', 3 - 1, O'Toole K. ⚽, Wolf H. (A), Moralez M. (A2)
  • 76', Ojeda A. ↓, Fernandez J. ↑,
  • 84', Moralez M. ↓, Shore J. ↑,
  • 84', Martinez A. ↓, Bakrar M. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning


New York City
59.9%		Draw
22.4%		Toronto FC
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
62.5% 21.6% 16%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.8% 21.2% 15.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • New York City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)
  • Toronto FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for New York City than the current prediction. (+3.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toronto FC than the current prediction. (-1.9%)
    •

    New York City - Toronto FC Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.58 ↑
    (1.53)    		 4.23 ↓
    (4.42)    		 5.36 ↓
    (5.97)    		 5.6%
    (4.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    •
    What is the prediction for New York City - Toronto FC?
  • Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. NY City will win (votes: 12 - 66.7%). Toronto will win (votes: 4 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for NY City: 44.9% – 88.5%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 6 high ROI users predict this event. NY City (votes: 3 - 50%). Toronto (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%).
    • DC - Toronto (votes: 4 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 13).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, NY City won 5.
    • NY City has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Toronto has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • NY City may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, Toronto has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, NY City is the team to beat.
    • There will not play in NY City: Freese M. (International duty) Jones M. (Broken Leg) Parks K. (Leg Injury)
    • There will not play in Toronto: Flores D. (International duty) Franklin K. (Ankle Injury) Gomis N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Monlouis Z. (Lower-Body Injury)
    • There are questionable in NY City: Arroyave J. (Leg Injury)
    • There are questionable in Toronto: Bernardeschi F. (Knock) Osorio J. (Lower-Body Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, NY City won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 34:30. (average 1.7:1.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, NY City won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:11. (average 2.2:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between New York City - Toronto FC were as follows:
    26.04.2025 Toronto FC - New York City 0:1
    11.05.2024 Toronto FC - New York City 2:3
    16.03.2024 New York City - Toronto FC 2:1
    24.09.2023 New York City - Toronto FC 3:0
    26.07.2023 New York City - Toronto FC 5:0
    Latest results of New York City
    12.06.2025 New York City - Atlanta United 4:0 ✺
    31.05.2025 Nashville SC - New York City 2:2 ✺
    28.05.2025 New York City - Houston Dynamo 0:3 ✺
    25.05.2025 New York City - Chicago Fire 3:1 ✺
    17.05.2025 New York City - New York Red Bulls 2:0 ✺
    Latest results of Toronto FC
    25.06.2025 Toronto FC - New York Red Bulls 1:1 ✺
    31.05.2025 Toronto FC - Charlotte 0:2 ✺
    28.05.2025 Toronto FC - Philadelphia Union 1:2 ✺
    24.05.2025 Toronto FC - Nashville SC 1:2 ✺
    17.05.2025 CF Montréal - Toronto FC 1:6 ✺
    MLS Table
    Main

    Western Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1San Diego FC29175754:342056
    2Minnesota United29149648:321651
    3Vancouver Whitecaps27147647:311649
    4Seattle Sounders27128748:381044
    5Los Angeles FC26118745:331241
    6Portland Timbers28109936:38-239
    7Austin FC27108929:33-438
    8Colorado Rapids291061338:48-1036
    9San Jose Earthquakes29981253:51235
    10Houston Dynamo28881237:46-932
    11Real Salt Lake27941428:36-831
    12FC Dallas27791139:47-830
    13Sporting Kansas City28761543:57-1427
    14St. Louis City28561733:50-1721
    15Los Angeles Galaxy27471632:55-2319


    Eastern Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Philadelphia Union29176649:262357
    2FC Cincinnati29164942:36652
    3Charlotte291621148:40850
    4Nashville SC29155949:331650
    5Orlando City28138754:401447
    6Inter Miami25137554:401446
    7Columbus Crew281210643:39446
    8New York City27135938:32644
    9New York Red Bulls291171142:38440
    10Chicago Fire271161050:48239
    11New England Revolution28871336:40-431
    12Atlanta Utd285111232:49-1726
    13Toronto FC285101328:35-725
    14CF Montreal29591529:51-2224
    15DC United29591526:54-2824

          Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
          Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)

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