Result
3:6
30/08/2025 at 15:05 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 1 - Round 3
- Referee: Wattellier E. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | CANAL+ Sport 2, StarTimes App, TV5 Monde Africa, TV5 Monde Maghreb-Orient |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Armenia | Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA French 2, TOD, TV5 Monde Asia, TV5 Monde Pacifique |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 6 |
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Bulgaria | Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 China | Migu |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go |
 Cyprus | Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2 |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 3, Oneplay |
 Denmark | TV3 Sport, Viaplay |
 Europe | TV5 Monde Europe |
 Finland | Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay |
 France | Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV |
 Georgia | Setanta Sports 1 |
 Germany | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch |
 Hong-kong | beIN Sports 3 |
 Israel | 5 STARS Israel |
 Italy | NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 259 |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Kazakhstan | Setanta Sports |
 Kosovo | ART Sport 4 |
 Malta | TVM Sport+ |
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Philippines | Cignal Play |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 3 |
 Portugal | Sport TV3 |
 Romania | Voyo |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 5 |
 Slovakia | Voyo |
 Slovenia | Arena Sport 3 |
 South-america | TV5 Monde Amerique Latine |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland |
 Turkey | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 United-kingdom | Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1 Pass |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, TV5 Monde |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.23 | 2.55 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 24% | 76% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (206/268) | 93% (805/862) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.23 | 2.55 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.58 | 4.54 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 32 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (206/268) | 93% (805/862) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 64% (25/39) | 70% (26/37) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 62% (50/81) | 86% (152/176) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (2/11) | 0% (0/3) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.61 | 0.86 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 78% (14/18) | 63% (10/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 48 | 32 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 14 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 4.54 | 2.58 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.46 | -0.42 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 4)
- 7', 0 - 1, Neves J. ⚽, Dembele O. (A),
- 9', 0 - 2, Barcola B. ⚽, Ruiz F. (A),
- 14', 0 - 3, Neves J. ⚽,
- 31', 0 - 4, Dembele O. (Pen),
- 37', 1 - 4, Cresswell C. ⚽,
- 45+8', Casseres C. (Pen),
- 2nd Half (2 - 2)
- 46', Mendes N. ↓, Pacho W. ↑,
- 46', Vitinha ↓, Zaire-Emery W. ↑,
- 50', 1 - 5, Dembele O. (Pen),
- 63', Doue D. ↓, Kvaratskhelia K. ↑,
- 63', Nicolaisen R. ↓, Kamanzi W. ↑,
- 63', Sidibe D. ↓, Edjouma N. ↑,
- 63', Sauer M. ↓, Vossah A. ↑,
- 70', Dembele O. ↓, Ramos G. ↑,
- 70', Magri F. ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
- 75', Barcola B. ↓, Mbaye I. ↑,
- 78', 1 - 6, Neves J. ⚽,
- 79', Methalie D. ↓, Koumbassa S. ↑,
- 82', Donnum A. 🟨,
- 89', 2 - 6, Gboho Y. ⚽, Donnum A. (A),
- 90+1', 3 - 6, Vossah A. ⚽, Hidalgo S. (A),
Chances of winning
Toulouse
7.7% | Draw
14.2% | Paris Saint-Germain
78.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)Paris Saint-Germain has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Paris Saint-Germain's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+3.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (-4.5%)
Toulouse - Paris Saint-Germain Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
13.98 ↑
(8.1) |
7.42 ↑
(5.42) |
1.29 ↓
(1.35) |
-1.6%
(4.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Toulouse - Paris Saint-Germain?
Users Predictions:
36 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 1 - 2.8%). PSG will win (votes: 31 - 86.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for PSG: 74.8% – 97.4%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH +1.25 - Toulouse (2.14) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1, 1st Half - PSG (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Paris Saint-Germain will win (16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 23 high ROI users predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 3 - 13%). PSG (votes: 17 - 73.9%). Tie (votes: 3 - 13%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 1.
- In recent matches, Toulouse has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- PSG is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Toulouse may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, PSG is the undisputed favorite.
- There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I.
(Knee Injury)
Canvot J.
(Inactive)
Francis A.
(Injury)
Messali R.
(Inactive)
Schmidt N.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in PSG: Donnarumma G.
(Coach's decision)
Soler C.
(Inactive)
Tenas A.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 11:39. (average 0.6:2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 0.4:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Toulouse won against Paris Saint-Germain?
Toulouse has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Paris Saint-Germain won against Toulouse?
Paris Saint-Germain has won 5 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toulouse - Paris Saint-Germain were as follows:
15.02.2025
Toulouse
-
Paris Saint-Germain
0:1
22.11.2024
Paris Saint-Germain
-
Toulouse
3:0
12.05.2024
Paris Saint-Germain
-
Toulouse
1:3
03.01.2024
Paris Saint-Germain
-
Toulouse
2:0
19.08.2023
Toulouse
-
Paris Saint-Germain
1:1
Latest results of Toulouse
Latest results of Paris Saint-Germain
French Ligue 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSG | 24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 53:19 | 34 | 57 |
| 2 | Lens | 24 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 45:21 | 24 | 53 |
| 3 | Lyon | 24 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 39:26 | 13 | 45 |
| 4 | Marseille | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 51:33 | 18 | 43 |
| 5 | Lille | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 37:31 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Rennes | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 38:35 | 3 | 40 |
| 7 | Monaco | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 40:36 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 40:31 | 9 | 35 |
| 9 | Brest | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 32:34 | -2 | 33 |
| 10 | Lorient | 24 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 34:38 | -4 | 33 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 33:28 | 5 | 31 |
| 12 | Angers | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 22:30 | -8 | 29 |
| 13 | Le Havre | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 20:30 | -10 | 26 |
| 14 | Paris FC | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 28:40 | -12 | 26 |
| 15 | Nice | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 30:44 | -14 | 24 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 19:35 | -16 | 18 |
| 17 | Nantes | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 22:41 | -19 | 17 |
| 18 | Metz | 24 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 22:53 | -31 | 13 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ Ligue 2
