Result
5:2
03/01/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.86 | 1.16 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 19 | 14 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 16 | 16 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 26.32% (5/19) | 14.29% (2/14) |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 17 | 10 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 85.71% (12/14) | 77.78% (14/18) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 6 | 12 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 16.67% (1/6) | 0% (0/3) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (3/3) | 83.33% (5/6) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 25 | 29 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 46.3 | 53.7 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (1 - 0)
- 05:28, 1 - 0, Engberg T. (G), Palola O. (A), Utunen T. (A2)
- 18:27, Munkki V. (2 min),
- 20:00, Engberg T. (2 min),
- 2nd Period (2 - 1)
- 00:36, Lehtonen S. (2 min),
- 02:57, 2 - 0, Mantykivi M. (G), Looke J. (A), Jasek L. (A2)
- 02:57, (2 min),
- 05:43, 3 - 0, Kucerik R. (G), Engberg T. (A), Palola O. (A2)
- 07:05, 3 - 1, Wernblom L. (G), Yliniemi S. (A),
- 19:35, Jasek L. (2 min),
- 19:35, Jasek L. (2 min),
- 19:35, Lauridsen O. (2 min),
- 19:35, Lauridsen O. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (2 - 1)
- 14:45, Maatta J. (2 min),
- 16:04, 4 - 1, Kucerik R. (G), Borg E. (A),
- 18:01, 5 - 1, Borg E. (G), Bjorkqvist K. (A), Mantykivi M. (A2)
- 19:59, 5 - 2, Tuhkala A. (G), Soderlund T. (A), Teissala L. (A2)
Chances of winning
Ilves
59.1% | Draw
20.4% | TPS
20.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ilves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (+3.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for TPS than the current prediction. (-2.2%)
Ilves - TPS Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.58 ↑
(1.55) |
4.5 ↓
(4.61) |
4.57 ↓
(5.01) |
7.2%
(6.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.25
What is the prediction for Ilves - TPS?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Ilves will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Ilves (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 4:1.
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 3.
- Ilves has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- TPS's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Ilves may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Ilves is considered a favorite.
- We predict that Ilves will win today's game, with odds of 1.55.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 44:46. (average 2.2:2.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ilves won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 26:19. (average 2.6:1.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against TPS?
Ilves has won 8 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has TPS won against Ilves?
TPS has won 8 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ilves - TPS were as follows:
18.10.2025
TPS
-
Ilves
4:3
17.10.2025
Ilves
-
TPS
4:3
22.08.2025
Ilves
-
TPS
3:2
25.01.2025
Ilves
-
TPS
1:0
13.12.2024
TPS
-
Ilves
3:2
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara | 51 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 188:125 | 100 |
| 2 | KooKoo | 50 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 181:123 | 96 |
| 3 | SaiPa | 51 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 173:139 | 94 |
| 4 | Lukko | 52 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 160:132 | 92 |
| 5 | KalPa | 51 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 153:144 | 90 |
| 6 | Ilves | 51 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 158:129 | 90 |
| 7 | JYP | 49 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 165:147 | 88 |
| 8 | Assat | 52 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 145:143 | 82 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo | 51 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 128:145 | 71 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 51 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 113:135 | 69 |
| 11 | TPS Turku | 52 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 123:143 | 67 |
| 12 | IFK Helsinki | 50 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 116:162 | 66 |
| 13 | Hameenlinna | 52 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 124:145 | 64 |
| 14 | Karpat | 53 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 157:172 | 60 |
| 15 | Jukurit | 51 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 115:140 | 59 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 51 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 99:174 | 39 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
