Result
1:4
07/03/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.26 | 3.57 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 24 | 21 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 19 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 4.17% (1/24) | 19.05% (4/21) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 17 | 23 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 89.47% (17/19) | 95.83% (23/24) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 0% (0/2) | 25% (1/4) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 75% (3/4) | 100% (2/2) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 26 | 31 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 45.61 | 54.39 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (0 - 1)
- 08:22, 0 - 1, Nattinen J. (G), Teuho-Markkola T. (A), Parikka J. (A2)
- 2nd Period (0 - 1)
- 06:37, Lauridsen O. (2 min),
- 06:37, Bjorkqvist K. (2 min),
- 13:02, Torok M. (Penalty Shot),
- 13:02, Wernblom L. (2 min),
- 14:42, Binner A. (2 min),
- 14:42, Klingberg C. (Penalty Shot),
- 15:54, 0 - 2, Ratinen S. (G), Pelli A. (A), Torok M. (A2)
- 19:11, Pelli A. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (1 - 2)
- 08:03, Jokinen M. (2 min),
- 16:57, 0 - 3, Henman L. (G),
- 17:57, 1 - 3, Pakkila E. (G), Yliniemi S. (A), Wernblom L. (A2)
- 19:52, 1 - 4, Klingberg C. (G),
Chances of winning
TPS
28.2% | Draw
23.5% | Ilves
48.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
TPS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+6.8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for TPS, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-6.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ilves, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
TPS - Ilves Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.32 ↑
(2.87) |
3.92 ↓
(4.07) |
1.94 ↓
(2.04) |
7.2%
(8.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.25
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 13 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TPS won 1.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- TPS may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, TPS has had a series of home games.
- Ilves is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, TPS won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 45:47. (average 2.3:2.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, TPS won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 27:18. (average 2.7:1.8).
How many head-to-head matches has TPS won against Ilves?
TPS has won 8 of their last 17 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against TPS?
Ilves has won 9 of their last 17 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between TPS - Ilves were as follows:
03.01.2026
Ilves
-
TPS
5:2
18.10.2025
TPS
-
Ilves
4:3
17.10.2025
Ilves
-
TPS
4:3
22.08.2025
Ilves
-
TPS
3:2
25.01.2025
Ilves
-
TPS
1:0
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara ✔ | 57 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 214:138 | 113 |
| 2 | SaiPa | 58 | 30 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 197:154 | 109 |
| 3 | KooKoo | 57 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 201:148 | 106 |
| 4 | JYP | 57 | 25 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 191:164 | 103 |
| 5 | Ilves | 57 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 175:144 | 101 |
| 6 | Lukko | 57 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 173:145 | 101 |
| 7 | KalPa | 58 | 27 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 174:170 | 100 |
| 8 | Assat ✔ | 57 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 23 | 155:156 | 88 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo ✔ | 58 | 21 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 147:155 | 84 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 57 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 23 | 130:149 | 80 |
| 11 | IFK Helsinki | 57 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 137:178 | 79 |
| 12 | Hameenlinna | 57 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 138:158 | 72 |
| 13 | TPS Turku | 57 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 134:162 | 71 |
| 14 | Jukurit | 57 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 127:156 | 64 |
| 15 | Karpat | 57 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 167:188 | 63 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 58 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 37 | 107:202 | 40 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Clinched Spots for Teams
Tappara is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Assat is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
Kiekko-Espoo is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
