Result
5:2
20/09/2025 at 08:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 2 - Round 6
- Referee: Leleu M. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.67 | 0.65 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 43% | 57% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 11 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (368/426) | 89% (509/574) |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.67 | 0.65 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.47 | 1.62 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 11 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 12 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 8 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (368/426) | 89% (509/574) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 55% (24/44) | 40% (19/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 80% (118/147) | 75% (85/113) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 8% (1/13) | 17% (3/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.31 | 0.64 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 17 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 73% (8/11) | 57% (17/30) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 35 | 57 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 14 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 16 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.62 | 3.47 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.38 | -1.53 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (3 - 1)
- 4', 0 - 1, Hatchi J. ⚽, Hemia A. (A),
- 24', 1 - 1, Diop M. ⚽, Adeline M. (A),
- 27', 2 - 1, Boura I. ⚽,
- 38', 3 - 1, Assoumou J. ⚽, Boura I. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 53', 4 - 1, Ifnaoui M. ⚽,
- 61', Ott G. ↓, Mbemba F. ↑,
- 61', Hemia A. ↓, Kielt S. ↑,
- 61', N'Landu D. ↓, Sidibe K. ↑,
- 61', Hatchi J. ↓, Sissoko A. ↑,
- 69', Louiserre D. ↓, Ahile T. ↑,
- 71', Bentayeb T. ↓, El Idrissy M. ↑,
- 71', Adeline M. ↓, Detourbet M. ↑,
- 77', Titi Y. ↓, Ouzenadji A. ↑,
- 77', Assoumou J. ↓, Odede E. ↑,
- 80', 5 - 1, El Idrissy M. ⚽,
- 81', Diop M. ↓, Gambor H. ↑,
- 84', 5 - 2, Kielt S. ⚽,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/mphk6tnz
Chances of winning
Troyes
48.9% | Draw
25.6% | Guingamp
25.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Troyes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Troyes's performance.Guingamp has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Troyes than the current prediction. (-4.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guingamp than the current prediction. (+2.6%)
Troyes - Guingamp Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.99 ↓
(2.15) |
3.74 ↑
(3.3) |
3.69 ↑
(3.25) |
4%
(7.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Troyes - Guingamp?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Troyes (votes: 2 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Troyes will win
(11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 11).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Troyes won 1.
- Troyes is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Guingamp has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Troyes may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Troyes is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Troyes: Phliponeau A.
(Muscle Injury)
Traore I.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Guingamp: Nair S.
(Ankle Injury)
Ortola A.
(Injury)
Planeix I.
(Inactive)
Sagna A.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Troyes: Maronnier L.
(Inactive)
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Troyes won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 4:17. (average 0.3:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Troyes won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.2:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Troyes won against Guingamp?
Troyes has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Guingamp won against Troyes?
Guingamp has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Troyes - Guingamp were as follows:
14.03.2025
Troyes
-
Guingamp
0:1
16.08.2024
Guingamp
-
Troyes
4:0
02.03.2024
Guingamp
-
Troyes
0:0
25.11.2023
Troyes
-
Guingamp
0:1
Latest results of Guingamp
French Ligue 2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Troyes | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 20:9 | 11 | 24 |
| 2 | Red Star | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 17:9 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Pau FC | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 17:12 | 5 | 21 |
| 4 | St Etienne | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 21:17 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Montpellier | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 13:11 | 2 | 17 |
| 6 | Reims | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16:15 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Le Mans | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15:14 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Annecy | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14:12 | 2 | 15 |
| 9 | Amiens | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 | Guingamp | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18:22 | -4 | 15 |
| 11 | Dunkerque | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 19:15 | 4 | 13 |
| 12 | Clermont | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10:14 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 | Rodez | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11:15 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 | Nancy | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11:16 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 | Grenoble | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11:14 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Boulogne | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 9:14 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Laval | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 7:12 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 | Bastia | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 4:12 | -8 | 4 |
Promotion ~ Ligue 1
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ National
