Result
5:2
20/09/2025 at 08:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 2 - Round 6
- Referee: Leleu M. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
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France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.67 | 0.65 |
Ball Possession |
---|
43% | 57% |
Total shots |
---|
18 | 8 |
Shots on target |
---|
11 | 4 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 0 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
1 | 3 |
Passes |
---|
86% (368/426) | 89% (509/574) |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.67 | 0.65 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
3.47 | 1.62 |
Total shots |
---|
18 | 8 |
Shots on target |
---|
11 | 4 |
Shots off target |
---|
3 | 2 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
4 | 2 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
12 | 5 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
6 | 3 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 1 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 0 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
1 | 3 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
27 | 8 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 1 |
Offsides |
---|
0 | 2 |
Free Kicks |
---|
10 | 13 |
Passes |
---|
86% (368/426) | 89% (509/574) |
Long passes |
---|
55% (24/44) | 40% (19/47) |
Passes in final third |
---|
80% (118/147) | 75% (85/113) |
Crosses |
---|
8% (1/13) | 17% (3/18) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
1.31 | 0.64 |
Throw-ins |
---|
17 | 14 |
Fouls |
---|
13 | 10 |
Tackles |
---|
73% (8/11) | 57% (17/30) |
Duels won |
---|
35 | 57 |
Clearances |
---|
14 | 20 |
Interceptions |
---|
13 | 16 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
1 | 6 |
xGOT faced |
---|
1.62 | 3.47 |
Goals prevented |
---|
-0.38 | -1.53 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (3 - 1)
- 4', 0 - 1, Hatchi J. ⚽, Hemia A. (A),
- 24', 1 - 1, Diop M. ⚽, Adeline M. (A),
- 27', 2 - 1, Boura I. ⚽,
- 38', 3 - 1, Assoumou J. ⚽, Boura I. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 53', 4 - 1, Ifnaoui M. ⚽,
- 61', Ott G. ↓, Mbemba F. ↑,
- 61', Hemia A. ↓, Kielt S. ↑,
- 61', N'Landu D. ↓, Sidibe K. ↑,
- 61', Hatchi J. ↓, Sissoko A. ↑,
- 69', Louiserre D. ↓, Ahile T. ↑,
- 71', Bentayeb T. ↓, El Idrissy M. ↑,
- 71', Adeline M. ↓, Detourbet M. ↑,
- 77', Titi Y. ↓, Ouzenadji A. ↑,
- 77', Assoumou J. ↓, Odede E. ↑,
- 80', 5 - 1, El Idrissy M. ⚽,
- 81', Diop M. ↓, Gambor H. ↑,
- 84', 5 - 2, Kielt S. ⚽,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/mphk6tnz
Chances of winning
Troyes 48.9% | Draw 25.6% | Guingamp 25.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Troyes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Troyes's performance.Guingamp has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Troyes than the current prediction. (-4.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guingamp than the current prediction. (+2.6%)
Troyes - Guingamp Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
1.99 ↓ (2.15) |
3.74 ↑ (3.3) |
3.69 ↑ (3.25) |
4% (7.7%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Troyes - Guingamp?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Troyes (votes: 2 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Troyes will win
(11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 11).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Troyes won 1.
- Troyes is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Guingamp has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Troyes may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Troyes is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Troyes: Phliponeau A.
(Muscle Injury)
Traore I.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Guingamp: Nair S.
(Ankle Injury)
Ortola A.
(Injury)
Planeix I.
(Inactive)
Sagna A.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Troyes: Maronnier L.
(Inactive)
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Troyes won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 4:17. (average 0.3:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Troyes won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.2:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Troyes won against Guingamp?
Troyes has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Guingamp won against Troyes?
Guingamp has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Troyes - Guingamp were as follows:
14.03.2025
Troyes
-
Guingamp
0:1
16.08.2024
Guingamp
-
Troyes
4:0
02.03.2024
Guingamp
-
Troyes
0:0
25.11.2023
Troyes
-
Guingamp
0:1
Latest results of Guingamp
French Ligue 2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Troyes | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19:9 | 10 | 20 |
2 | Pau FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 16:8 | 8 | 20 |
3 | St Etienne | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17:10 | 7 | 17 |
4 | Red Star | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14:8 | 6 | 16 |
5 | Reims | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12:9 | 3 | 14 |
6 | Guingamp | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16:19 | -3 | 14 |
7 | Nancy | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10:11 | -1 | 12 |
8 | Montpellier | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:8 | 0 | 11 |
9 | Rodez | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7:10 | -3 | 11 |
10 | Dunkerque | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 16:14 | 2 | 10 |
11 | Le Mans | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11:12 | -1 | 10 |
12 | Clermont | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9:13 | -4 | 10 |
13 | Amiens | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11:13 | -2 | 9 |
14 | Annecy | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9:12 | -3 | 9 |
15 | Boulogne | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 7:11 | -4 | 9 |
16 | Laval | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7:11 | -4 | 8 |
17 | Grenoble | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 6 |
18 | Bastia | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4:11 | -7 | 4 |
Promotion ~ Ligue 1
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ National