Result
2:1
28/09/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Virsliga - Round 31
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Latvia | Sportacentrs TV, TV4 |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.06 | 0.39 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 65% | 35% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (388/485) | 60% (158/264) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.06 | 0.39 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.96 | 0.55 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 26 | 9 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (388/485) | 60% (158/264) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 59% (60/102) | 28% (21/74) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (109/160) | 45% (38/85) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 35% (11/31) | 13% (2/16) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.32 | 0.43 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 17 | 28 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 60% (6/10) | 58% (7/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 71 | 53 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 26 | 50 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.55 | 1.96 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.45 | -0.04 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 14', 0 - 1, Nakamura R. ⚽, Sitjakovs R. (A),
- 41', Skadmanis K. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Sitjakovs R. ↓, Cirulis J. ↑,
- 46', Skadmanis K. ↓, Vasilevskis M. ↑,
- 59', Glaudans A. 🟨,
- 64', 1 - 1, Dusalijevs N. ⚽, Kurokawa A. (A),
- 68', Toba J. ↓, Kirss R. ↑,
- 68', Sula D. ↓, Sprukts E. ↑,
- 86', 2 - 1, Kirss R. ⚽, Samoilovs B. (A),
- 90', Vasilevskis M. ↓, Bombans G. ↑,
- 90', Nakamura R. ↓, Emsis E. ↑,
Chances of winning
Tukums 2000
39.2% | Draw
26.6% | Super Nova
34.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tukums 2000 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)Super Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tukums 2000 than the current prediction. (-0.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Super Nova than the current prediction. (-0.1%)
Tukums 2000 - Super Nova Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.39 ↑
(2.32) |
3.57 ↑
(3.38) |
2.77 ↑
(2.69) |
6%
(10%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tukums 2000 won 2.
- Tukums 2000 has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Super Nova's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Tukums 2000 may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Super Nova has had a series of away games.
- Tukums 2000 could have a small edge in this match.
- In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Tukums 2000 won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 22:17. (average 1.4:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Tukums 2000 won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:6. (average 1.5:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Tukums 2000 won against Super Nova?
Tukums 2000 has won 4 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Super Nova won against Tukums 2000?
Super Nova has won 2 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Tukums 2000 - Super Nova were as follows:
06.07.2025
Super Nova
-
Tukums 2000
1:0
16.05.2025
Super Nova
-
Tukums 2000
1:1
31.03.2025
Tukums 2000
-
Super Nova
2:2
17.09.2023
Tukums 2000
-
Super Nova
1:0
30.06.2023
Super Nova
-
Tukums 2000
2:5
Latest results of Tukums 2000
Latest results of Super Nova
Latvian Virsliga Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Riga FC | 32 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 80:21 | 59 | 83 |
| 2 | RFS | 32 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 84:33 | 51 | 75 |
| 3 | FK Liepaja | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 53:48 | 5 | 54 |
| 4 | BFC Daugavpils | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 48:55 | -7 | 46 |
| 5 | Auda | 32 | 13 | 5 | 14 | 39:41 | -2 | 44 |
| 6 | Jelgava | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 34:41 | -7 | 34 |
| 7 | Tukums 2000 | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 35:58 | -23 | 31 |
| 8 | Grobina | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 30:56 | -26 | 29 |
| 9 | Super Nova | 32 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 38:51 | -13 | 27 |
| 10 | Metta | 32 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 31:68 | -37 | 24 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Nakotnes liga
