Peñarol de Montevideo vs Vélez Sársfield – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Copa Libertadores Peñarol de Montevideo - Vélez Sársfield
Result
0:0
29/05/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 6
  • Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaSporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
australiaAustraliabeIN Sports 3
belarusBelarusOkko Sport
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
brazilBrazilParamount+
canadaCanadabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
chileChileESPN Premium
colombiaColombiaESPN
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
georgiaGeorgiaSilk Universal
indonesiaIndonesiaMola TV
israelIsraelSport 2
italyItalyComo TV
mexicoMexicoDisney+, ESPN 2
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
peruPeruDisney+, ESPN
portugalPortugalSport TV1
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 2
south-americaSouth-americaESPN South
spainSpainLaLiga+ app
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, ESPN, Inter

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.000.46
Ball Possession
56%44%
Total shots
1810
Shots on target
54
Big Chances
00
Corner Kicks
35
Passes
74% (343/464)71% (269/378)
Yellow Cards
12
Expected Goals (xG)
1.000.46
xG on target (xGOT)
0.110.28
Total shots
1810
Shots on target
54
Shots off target
103
Blocked Shots
33
Shots inside the Box
76
Shots outside the Box
114
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
00
Corner Kicks
35
Touches in opposition box
1810
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
33
Free Kicks
1610
Passes
74% (343/464)71% (269/378)
Long passes
44% (34/77)43% (28/65)
Passes in final third
58% (76/131)58% (67/116)
Crosses
4% (1/24)7% (1/14)
Expected assists (xA)
0.600.30
Throw-ins
2721
Fouls
1016
Tackles
63% (17/27)54% (7/13)
Duels won
6434
Clearances
2942
Interceptions
39
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
45
xGOT faced
0.280.11
Goals prevented
0.280.11

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 27', Leo Coelho 🟨,
  • 33', Galvan T. 🟨,
  • 45+3', Bouzat A. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 58', Umpierrez L. , Garcia Cardozo D. G. ,
  • 73', Sosa I. , Villalba H. ,
  • 73', Olivera M. , Lucas Hernandez ,
  • 79', Baeza C. , Roldan L. ,
  • 80', Galvan T. , Cabral R. ,
  • 83', Silvera M. , Avenatti F. ,
  • 83', Suarez D. , David Terans ,
  • 90', Pizzini F. , Fernandez M. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Peñarol de Montevideo
42.2%
Draw
31.3%
Vélez Sársfield
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
46% 27.8% 26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3% 27% 25.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)
  • Vélez Sársfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+5.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Peñarol de Montevideo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (-1.1%)
  • Peñarol de Montevideo - Vélez Sársfield Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.24
    (2.05)
    3.02
    (3.4)
    3.55
    (3.6)
    6%
    (6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Peñarol de Montevideo - Vélez Sársfield?
  • Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Peñarol will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Vélez will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Peñarol (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Peñarol is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    • Vélez is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 0.
    • Peñarol has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • In recent matches, Vélez has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Peñarol may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Peñarol could have a small edge in this match.
    • There will not play in Peñarol: Avenatti F. (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Vélez: Braian Romero (Muscle Injury) Fernandez T. (Knee Injury) Garcia J. (Broken ankle) Lagos A. (Knee Injury) Monzon F. (Knee Injury) Porcel M. (Inactive)
    • In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:10. (average 0.7:1.7).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Peñarol won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Peñarol de Montevideo - Vélez Sársfield were as follows:
    02.04.2025 Vélez Sársfield - Peñarol de Montevideo 2:1
    Latest results of Vélez Sársfield
    Copa Libertadores Table
    Group Stage

    Group A
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Estudiantes L.P640211:5612
    2Botafogo RJ64028:5312
    3U. De Chile63128:6210
    4Carabobo60152:13-111


    Group B
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1River Plate633013:7612
    2U. de Deportes62224:408
    3Ind. del Valle62228:11-38
    4Barcelona SC61144:7-34


    Group C
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1LDU Quito63218:4411
    2Flamengo RJ63216:3311
    3Central Cordoba63217:7011
    4Dep. Tachira60064:11-70


    Group D
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Sao Paulo642010:4614
    2Libertad Asuncion62316:519
    3Alianza Lima61237:11-45
    4Talleres Cordoba61145:8-34


    Group E
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Racing Club641114:31113
    2Fortaleza62228:538
    3Bucaramanga61326:10-46
    4Colo Colo61235:15-105


    Group F
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Internacional632112:8411
    2Atl. Nacional63037:619
    3Bahia62135:7-27
    4Nacional62137:10-37


    Group G
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Palmeiras660017:41318
    2Cerro Porteno62137:11-47
    3Bolivar620412:1116
    4Sporting Cristal61146:16-104


    Group H
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Velez Sarsfield632111:4711
    2Penarol63219:4511
    3SA Bulo Bulo62045:15-106
    4Olimpia Asuncion61239:11-25

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)