Result
04/05/2026 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
Chances of winning
Peñarol de Montevideo
52.7% | Draw
27.7% | Defensor Sporting
19.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Peñarol de Montevideo's form might have worsened.Defensor Sporting has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+4.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (-4.3%)
Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.76 ↑
(1.57) |
3.36 ↓
(3.4) |
4.67 ↓
(6.05) |
7.9%
(9.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 5.
- Peñarol is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- In recent matches, Defensor Sporting has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Defensor Sporting may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Peñarol is a strong favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 14 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 34:18. (average 1.7:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Peñarol won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:6. (average 1.6:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Peñarol de Montevideo won against Defensor Sporting?
Peñarol de Montevideo has won 9 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Defensor Sporting won against Peñarol de Montevideo?
Defensor Sporting has won 0 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting were as follows:
02.11.2025
Peñarol de Montevideo
-
Defensor Sporting
2:1
15.10.2025
Defensor Sporting
-
Peñarol de Montevideo
0:2
07.06.2025
Peñarol de Montevideo
-
Defensor Sporting
3:0
02.05.2025
Defensor Sporting
-
Peñarol de Montevideo
0:1
17.11.2024
Peñarol de Montevideo
-
Defensor Sporting
2:0
Latest results of Peñarol de Montevideo
Latest results of Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Primera Division Table
Apertura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 22:11 | 11 | 30 |
| 2 | Maldonado | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 21:15 | 6 | 23 |
| 3 | Penarol | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 19:13 | 6 | 23 |
| 4 | Albion | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 22:14 | 8 | 22 |
| 5 | Central Esp | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 20:20 | 0 | 21 |
| 6 | Defensor Sp | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 11:8 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Montevideo City | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 19:14 | 5 | 19 |
| 8 | Nacional | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 20:18 | 2 | 19 |
| 9 | Danubio | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 17:17 | 0 | 18 |
| 10 | Liverpool M | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17:17 | 0 | 17 |
| 11 | Wanderers | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 14:19 | -5 | 17 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13:16 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Boston River | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 11:17 | -6 | 14 |
| 14 | Progreso | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11:20 | -9 | 10 |
| 15 | CA Cerro | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 8:19 | -11 | 10 |
| 16 | Juventud | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13:20 | -7 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs: )
