River Plate vs Vélez Sársfield – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Argentinian Liga Profesional
Football Argentinian Liga Profesional River Plate - Vélez Sársfield
Result
4:1
04/05/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Torneo Betano - Apertura - Round 16
  • Referee: Merlos A. (Arg)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN Premium
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 1
brazilBrazilClaro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaK-Ball
colombiaColombiaDisney+, ESPN
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
italyItalySport Italia, Sportitalia Plus
mexicoMexicoDisney+
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
peruPeruDisney+, ESPN
portugalPortugalSport TV3
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 1
south-americaSouth-americaESPN South
turkeyTurkeySpor Smart 1
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaFanatiz
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, ESPN, Inter
worldWorldTyC Sports Internacional

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.130.73
Ball Possession
58%42%
Total shots
1810
Shots on target
93
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
62
Passes
82% (438/534)76% (285/375)
Yellow Cards
35
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
2.130.73
xG on target (xGOT)
2.771.11
Total shots
1810
Shots on target
93
Shots off target
56
Blocked Shots
41
Shots inside the Box
103
Shots outside the Box
77
Hit the Woodwork
21
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
62
Touches in opposition box
208
Accurate through passes
02
Offsides
32
Free Kicks
1815
Passes
82% (438/534)76% (285/375)
Long passes
54% (37/69)27% (12/45)
Passes in final third
73% (77/105)57% (50/87)
Crosses
27% (3/11)0% (0/12)
Expected assists (xA)
0.710.59
Throw-ins
2422
Fouls
1518
Tackles
63% (10/16)45% (15/33)
Duels won
6168
Clearances
1822
Interceptions
1412
Errors leading to shot
02
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
25
xGOT faced
1.112.77
Goals prevented
0.11-1.23

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (3 - 1)
  • 14', 1 - 0, Driussi S. ⚽,
  • 28', 2 - 0, Colidio F. ⚽, Fernandez N. (A),
  • 30', Gonzalez Pirez L. 🟨,
  • 32', Silvero T. 🟨,
  • 33', 3 - 0, Fernandez N. ⚽, Mastantuono F. (A),
  • 37', 3 - 1, Carrizo M. ⚽, Bouzat A. (A),
  • 43', Vazquez K. A. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Vazquez K. A. ↓, Baeza C. ↑,
  • 59', Giuliano Galoppo 🟨,
  • 61', Perez E. ↓, Castano K. ↑,
  • 61', Giuliano Galoppo ↓, Meza M. ↑,
  • 61', Driussi S. ↓, Miguel Borja ↑,
  • 69', Carrizo M. ↓, Machuca I. ↑,
  • 69', Pellegrini M. ↓, Pizzini F. ↑,
  • 70', Mastantuono F. ↓, Lanzini M. ↑,
  • 70', Colidio F. ↓, Subiabre I. ↑,
  • 78', Baeza C. 🟨,
  • 84', Braian Romero ↓, Santos M. ↑,
  • 90+1', Castano K. 🟨,
  • 90+5', Gomez V. 🟨,
  • 90+5', Gomez V. 🟨,
  • 90+10', 4 - 1, Miguel Borja (Pen),

Highlights

Chances of winning


River Plate
58.3%		Draw
25%		Vélez Sársfield
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
69.5% 20.4% 10%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.3% 19.6% 9.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • River Plate has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that River Plate's form might have worsened.
  • Vélez Sársfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vélez Sársfield's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate than the current prediction. (+14%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for River Plate, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (-7.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vélez Sársfield, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
    •

    River Plate - Vélez Sársfield Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.63 ↑
    (1.35)    		 3.8 ↓
    (4.57)    		 5.67 ↓
    (9.33)    		 5.4%
    (6.9%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    What is the prediction for River Plate - Vélez Sársfield?
  • Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. River Plate will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Vélez will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for River Plate: 4% – 71%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. River Plate (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 12).
    • River Plate is Qualified for Torneo Betano (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 1.
    • River Plate is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Vélez has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • In this match, River Plate is the clear favorite.
    • There will not play in River Plate: Beltran S. (Injury) Diaz P. (Muscle Injury) Martinez P. (Hamstring Injury) Ruberto A. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Vélez: Fernandez M. (Inactive) Fernandez T. (Knee Injury) Garcia J. (Broken ankle) Mammana E. (Hand Injury) Monzon F. (Knee Injury) Porcel M. (Inactive)
    • In the last 7 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.7:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, River Plate won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:1. (average 2.7:0.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between River Plate - Vélez Sársfield were as follows:
    18.10.2024 River Plate - Vélez Sársfield 1:1
    04.02.2024 River Plate - Vélez Sársfield 5:0
    02.09.2023 Vélez Sársfield - River Plate 2:0
    29.05.2023 Vélez Sársfield - River Plate 2:2
    Latest results of River Plate
    27.04.2025 River Plate - Boca Juniors 2:1 ✺
    23.04.2025 Independiente del Valle - River Plate 2:2 ✺
    18.04.2025 Gimnasia La Plata - River Plate 0:3 ✺
    13.04.2025 River Plate - Talleres de Córdoba 1:1 ✺
    08.04.2025 River Plate - Barcelona Guayaquil 0:0 ✺
    Latest results of Vélez Sársfield
    28.04.2025 Vélez Sársfield - Gimnasia La Plata 1:0 ✺
    23.04.2025 San Antonio Bulo Bulo - Vélez Sársfield 2:1 ✺
    18.04.2025 Talleres de Córdoba - Vélez Sársfield 0:1 ✺
    14.04.2025 Vélez Sársfield - Sarmiento de Junín 0:1 ✺
    09.04.2025 Olimpia Asuncion - Vélez Sársfield 0:4 ✺
    Argentinian Liga Profesional Table
    Clausura

    Group A
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Central Cordoba1356216:10621
    2Estudiantes L.P1363415:13221
    3Union de Santa Fe1355319:13620
    4Defensa y Justicia1354413:13019
    5Argentinos Jrs1353515:10518
    6Belgrano1346313:10318
    7Barracas Central1246215:13218
    8Tigre1346313:11218
    9Racing Club1353514:13118
    10Boca Juniors1245319:10917
    11Banfield1352612:18-617
    12Huracan134456:11-516
    13Ind. Rivadavia1326511:14-312
    14Newells Old Boys1325611:21-1011
    15Aldosivi132385:15-109


    Group B
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Dep. Riestra1383218:9927
    2Rosario Central1376015:6927
    3Lanus1382315:9626
    4Velez Sarsfield1374219:91025
    5River Plate1363420:12821
    6San Lorenzo1354411:10119
    7San Martin S.J1345410:11-117
    8Atl. Tucuman1343614:15-115
    9Sarmiento Junin134369:14-515
    10Instituto133647:12-515
    11Talleres Cordoba133557:12-514
    12Gimnasia L.P134188:16-813
    13Platense1325611:20-911
    14Godoy Cruz131759:16-710
    15Independiente131669:13-49

          Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Clausura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)

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