Vila Nova vs Athletico Paranaense – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie B Vila Nova - Athletico Paranaense
Result
2:1
17/05/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie B Superbet - Round 8
  • Referee: Bellote L. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.621.15
Ball Possession
39%61%
Total shots
158
Shots on target
72
Big Chances
42
Corner Kicks
56
Passes
66% (168/255)78% (328/418)
Yellow Cards
13
Expected Goals (xG)
1.621.15
xG on target (xGOT)
2.580.82
Total shots
158
Shots on target
72
Shots off target
64
Blocked Shots
22
Shots inside the Box
104
Shots outside the Box
54
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
42
Corner Kicks
56
Touches in opposition box
1415
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
1215
Passes
66% (168/255)78% (328/418)
Long passes
31% (18/59)40% (22/55)
Passes in final third
62% (48/77)60% (79/131)
Crosses
50% (7/14)29% (4/14)
Expected assists (xA)
0.900.61
Throw-ins
2432
Fouls
1512
Tackles
38% (5/13)64% (9/14)
Duels won
4363
Clearances
3019
Interceptions
149
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
15
xGOT faced
0.822.58
Goals prevented
-0.180.58

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 7', Igor Henrique , Miticov ,
  • 13', 1 - 0, Bernardo Schappo , Guilherme Parede (A),
  • 25', Habraao , Zapelli B. ,
  • 33', 2 - 0, Gabriel Poveda , Tiago Pagnussat (A),
  • 34', Luiz Fernando 🟨,
  • 43', Figueiredo T. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 50', Guilherme Parede 🟨,
  • 54', Alan Kardec , Renan Peixoto ,
  • 55', Giuliano , Joao Cruz ,
  • 55', Tevis , Isaac ,
  • 66', Junior Todinho , Gustavo Paje ,
  • 66', Guilherme Parede , Gabriel Silva ,
  • 70', Felipinho 🟨,
  • 77', 2 - 1, Zapelli B. (Pen),
  • 79', Raul , Moraes K. ,
  • 79', Dodo , Joao Vieira ,
  • 79', Arilson , Walisson Maia ,

Chances of winning


Vila Nova
35.2%
Draw
33%
Athletico Paranaense
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
36% 30% 34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3% 29.8% 33.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Vila Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)
  • Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (+1.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+1.9%)
  • Vila Nova - Athletico Paranaense Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.68
    (2.6)
    2.83
    (3.13)
    2.93
    (2.76)
    6.8%
    (6.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
  • What is the prediction for Vila Nova - Athletico Paranaense?
  • Users Predictions: Vila Nova will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 44.94%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 10).
    • Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
    • Athletico PR may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • There will not play in Vila Nova: Bruno Mendes (Inactive) Davis E. (Knee Injury) Emerson Urso (Inactive) Jean Mota (Inactive) Junior Todinho (Inactive) Labandeira F. (Inactive) Mauricio Kozlinski (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Athletico PR: Dudu Kogitzki (Inactive) Leozinho (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Vila Nova: Guilherme Parede (Knee Injury) Lucas Sena (Inactive) Marcondes (Injury)
    • The teams have not played against each other recently.
    Latest results of Vila Nova
    14.05.2025 Remo - Vila Nova 2:0
    06.05.2025 Athletic Club - Vila Nova 0:1
    01.05.2025 Cruzeiro - Vila Nova 2:0
    25.04.2025 Vila Nova - Chapecoense 1:0
    20.04.2025 Vila Nova - Botafogo SP 2:0
    Latest results of Athletico Paranaense
    Brazilian Serie B Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Goias17113323:131036
    2Coritiba18104419:12734
    3Novorizontino1787222:121031
    4Vila Nova FC1883717:16127
    5Chapecoense-SC1782721:16526
    6Remo1768319:15426
    7Cuiaba1774619:20-125
    8Avai1767420:18225
    9Athletico-PR1873822:24-224
    10Criciuma1765620:17323
    11Athletic Club18711021:25-422
    12Operario-PR1864821:20122
    13CRB1864816:18-222
    14Atletico GO1857618:20-222
    15America MG1762917:21-420
    16Ferroviaria1847718:22-419
    17Paysandu PA1746716:19-318
    18Volta Redonda1746710:16-618
    19Botafogo SP1746712:20-818
    20Amazonas1745816:23-717

          Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
          Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )