Ilves vs VPS Vaasa – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Finnish Veikkausliiga Ilves - VPS Vaasa
Result
3:2
14/07/2025 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Veikkausliiga
  • Where to Watch on TV:
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.640.66
Ball Possession
49%51%
Total shots
1311
Shots on target
74
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
54
Passes
85% (358/423)83% (355/427)
Yellow Cards
34
Expected Goals (xG)
1.640.66
xG on target (xGOT)
1.470.40
Total shots
1311
Shots on target
74
Shots off target
54
Blocked Shots
13
Shots inside the Box
118
Shots outside the Box
23
Hit the Woodwork
01
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
54
Touches in opposition box
2620
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
14
Free Kicks
165
Passes
85% (358/423)83% (355/427)
Long passes
48% (23/48)38% (19/50)
Passes in final third
72% (79/109)74% (88/119)
Crosses
20% (2/10)22% (4/18)
Expected assists (xA)
1.050.55
Throw-ins
1820
Fouls
516
Tackles
65% (11/17)69% (11/16)
Duels won
5034
Clearances
2411
Interceptions
411
Errors leading to shot
02
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
24
xGOT faced
0.401.47
Goals prevented
-0.60-0.53

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 10', Ala-Myllymaki L. , Soderback M. ,
  • 23', 1 - 0, Veteli J. , Kanga J. (A),
  • 37', El Ouatki Y. 🟨,
  • 45+1', Jukkola O. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 2)
  • 48', 1 - 1, Fall M. , El Ouatki Y. (A),
  • 60', Ulundu V. , Wallius K. ,
  • 60', Kanga J. , Stjopin M. ,
  • 61', Raisanen A. , Almen A. ,
  • 73', Jakonen O. , Fleuriau N. ,
  • 73', Cicale A. , Daoussi Y. ,
  • 75', 1 - 2, Popovitch A. (Own goal),
  • 78', Popovitch A. 🟨,
  • 79', Riski Ro. , Hytonen T. ,
  • 80', Veteli J. , Akinyemi A. ,
  • 81', Almen A. 🟨,
  • 82', Reid T. 🟨,
  • 83', Miettunen T. 🟨,
  • 84', El Ouatki Y. , Etok M. ,
  • 84', Dekker T. , Engstrom J. ,
  • 85', 2 - 2, Reid T. (Own goal),
  • 88', Daoussi Y. 🟨,
  • 89', 3 - 2, Soderback M. , Akinyemi A. (A),

Highlights

Chances of winning


Ilves
63.2%
Draw
20.5%
VPS Vaasa
16.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
60.7% 21.5% 17.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.2% 21% 17.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)
  • VPS Vaasa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for VPS Vaasa than the current prediction. (+1.1%)
  • Ilves - VPS Vaasa Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.5
    (1.55)
    4.67
    (4.37)
    5.89
    (5.28)
    5.1%
    (6.4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
  • What is the prediction for Ilves - VPS Vaasa?
  • Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Ilves will win (votes: 25 - 89.3%). VPS will win (votes: 2 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 3.6%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Ilves: 77.9%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Ilves will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: ) and 7 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 3.
    • Recent performances by Ilves have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • VPS is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Ilves may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Ilves is seen as the favorite.
    • There will not play in VPS: Lindeman S. (Inactive) Marttinen T. (Inactive) Ronnberg V. (Inactive) Smyth L. (Inactive) Vahtera J. (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Ilves: Tiitinen O. (Inactive)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 27:22. (average 1.4:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Ilves won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:14. (average 1.5:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Ilves - VPS Vaasa were as follows:
    02.05.2025 VPS Vaasa - Ilves 1:0
    15.02.2025 Ilves - VPS Vaasa 1:0
    04.10.2024 VPS Vaasa - Ilves 0:2
    21.07.2024 Ilves - VPS Vaasa 3:2
    07.06.2024 VPS Vaasa - Ilves 1:1
    Latest results of Ilves
    10.07.2025 Shakhtar Donetsk - Ilves 6:0
    05.07.2025 SJK - Ilves 1:1
    02.07.2025 Ilves - KTP Kotka 2:1
    18.06.2025 Ilves - SJK 2:3
    14.06.2025 KuPS Kuopio - Ilves 0:3
    Latest results of VPS Vaasa
    05.07.2025 VPS Vaasa - HJK 0:2
    02.07.2025 VPS Vaasa - Haka 1:2
    18.06.2025 VPS Vaasa - Gnistan 0:0
    14.06.2025 IFK Mariehamn - VPS Vaasa 1:5
    11.06.2025 FF Jaro - VPS Vaasa 3:2
    Finnish Veikkausliiga Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Ilves17112437:191835
    2Inter Turku1697032:122034
    3KuPS1794428:181031
    4HJK1692535:181729
    5SJK1684431:23828
    6Gnistan1655621:27-620
    7VPS1654724:25-119
    8Mariehamn1645716:31-1517
    9Haka1644817:27-1016
    10Jaro1643917:25-815
    11AC Oulu16331022:35-1312
    12KTP1625918:38-2011

          Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: )
          Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )