Result
3:2
14/07/2025 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Veikkausliiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.64 | 0.66 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (358/423) | 83% (355/427) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.64 | 0.66 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.47 | 0.40 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 26 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (358/423) | 83% (355/427) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (23/48) | 38% (19/50) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 72% (79/109) | 74% (88/119) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (2/10) | 22% (4/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.05 | 0.55 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 18 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 5 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 65% (11/17) | 69% (11/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 34 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 24 | 11 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.40 | 1.47 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.60 | -0.53 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 10', Ala-Myllymaki L. ↓, Soderback M. ↑,
- 23', 1 - 0, Veteli J. ⚽, Kanga J. (A),
- 37', El Ouatki Y. 🟨,
- 45+1', Jukkola O. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 2)
- 48', 1 - 1, Fall M. ⚽, El Ouatki Y. (A),
- 60', Ulundu V. ↓, Wallius K. ↑,
- 60', Kanga J. ↓, Stjopin M. ↑,
- 61', Raisanen A. ↓, Almen A. ↑,
- 73', Jakonen O. ↓, Fleuriau N. ↑,
- 73', Cicale A. ↓, Daoussi Y. ↑,
- 75', 1 - 2, Popovitch A. (Own goal),
- 78', Popovitch A. 🟨,
- 79', Riski Ro. ↓, Hytonen T. ↑,
- 80', Veteli J. ↓, Akinyemi A. ↑,
- 81', Almen A. 🟨,
- 82', Reid T. 🟨,
- 83', Miettunen T. 🟨,
- 84', El Ouatki Y. ↓, Etok M. ↑,
- 84', Dekker T. ↓, Engstrom J. ↑,
- 85', 2 - 2, Reid T. (Own goal),
- 88', Daoussi Y. 🟨,
- 89', 3 - 2, Soderback M. ⚽, Akinyemi A. (A),
Chances of winning
Ilves
63.2% | Draw
20.5% | VPS Vaasa
16.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)VPS Vaasa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for VPS Vaasa than the current prediction. (+1.1%)
Ilves - VPS Vaasa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.5 ↓
(1.55) |
4.67 ↑
(4.37) |
5.89 ↑
(5.28) |
5.1%
(6.4%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Ilves - VPS Vaasa?
Users Predictions:
28 users predict this event. Ilves will win (votes: 25 - 89.3%). VPS will win (votes: 2 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 3.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ilves: 77.9% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Ilves will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: ) and 7 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 3.
- Recent performances by Ilves have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- VPS is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Ilves may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Ilves is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in VPS: Lindeman S.
(Inactive)
Marttinen T.
(Inactive)
Ronnberg V.
(Inactive)
Smyth L.
(Inactive)
Vahtera J.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Ilves: Tiitinen O.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 27:22. (average 1.4:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ilves won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:14. (average 1.5:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against VPS Vaasa?
Ilves has won 5 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has VPS Vaasa won against Ilves?
VPS Vaasa has won 5 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ilves - VPS Vaasa were as follows:
02.05.2025
VPS Vaasa
-
Ilves
1:0
15.02.2025
Ilves
-
VPS Vaasa
1:0
04.10.2024
VPS Vaasa
-
Ilves
0:2
21.07.2024
Ilves
-
VPS Vaasa
3:2
07.06.2024
VPS Vaasa
-
Ilves
1:1
Latest results of VPS Vaasa
Finnish Veikkausliiga Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ilves | 17 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 37:19 | 18 | 35 |
| 2 | Inter Turku | 16 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 32:12 | 20 | 34 |
| 3 | KuPS | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 28:18 | 10 | 31 |
| 4 | HJK | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 35:18 | 17 | 29 |
| 5 | SJK | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 31:23 | 8 | 28 |
| 6 | Gnistan | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 21:27 | -6 | 20 |
| 7 | VPS | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 24:25 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Mariehamn | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16:31 | -15 | 17 |
| 9 | Haka | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 17:27 | -10 | 16 |
| 10 | Jaro | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 17:25 | -8 | 15 |
| 11 | AC Oulu | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 22:35 | -13 | 12 |
| 12 | KTP | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 18:38 | -20 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: )
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )
