Result
2:4
23/01/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Eerste Divisie - Round 24
- Referee: Dieperink R. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
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 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 3 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.33 | 1.10 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 69% | 31% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (501/588) | 67% (170/252) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.33 | 1.10 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.72 | 2.80 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (501/588) | 67% (170/252) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 51% (23/45) | 38% (21/56) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 67% (115/171) | 54% (34/63) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 14% (2/14) | 31% (4/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.38 | 0.64 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 80% (12/15) | 65% (11/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 43 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.80 | 1.72 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.20 | -0.28 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 24', Boersma B. 🟨,
- 27', Kuster H. 🟨,
- 35', 0 - 1, Familia-Castillo J. ⚽, van Kaam D. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 3)
- 50', van der Leij T. 🟨,
- 54', 0 - 2, Kuster H. ⚽, Al Mazyani F. (A),
- 57', 1 - 2, Simons J. ⚽,
- 57', Raterink O. ↓, El Allachi C. ↑,
- 57', de Jong F. ↓, Smits M. ↑,
- 66', Uneken J. ↓, van der Veen Y. ↑,
- 68', Postma L. 🟨,
- 75', Kuster H. ↓, Roemeratoe G. ↑,
- 75', van Hedel R. ↓, Held N. ↑,
- 77', Simons J. ↓, Kwint K. ↑,
- 77', Bultman S. ↓, Kaninda N. ↑,
- 78', 1 - 3, van der Veen Y. ⚽,
- 83', Schoppema L. ↓, Symons K. ↑,
- 84', 1 - 4, Held N. ⚽, Familia-Castillo J. (A),
- 85', van Kaam D. ↓, van der Venne R. ↑,
- 86', Familia-Castillo J. ↓, Witteveen M. ↑,
- 90+3', 2 - 4, Boersma B. ⚽, Kwint K. (A),
Chances of winning
De Graafschap
44.3% | Draw
23.4% | Waalwijk
32.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
De Graafschap has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)Waalwijk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for De Graafschap than the current prediction. (+0.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Waalwijk than the current prediction. (-2.6%)
De Graafschap - Waalwijk Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.11 ↑
(2.11) |
3.99 ↑
(3.58) |
2.9 ↓
(2.99) |
6.8%
(9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for De Graafschap - Waalwijk?
Users Predictions:
18 users predict this event. De Graafschap will win (votes: 12 - 66.7%). Waalwijk will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for De Graafschap: 44.9% – 88.5%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. De Graafschap (votes: 2 - 40%). Waalwijk (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -0.5 - Waalwijk (1.66) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH -0.25 - Waalwijk (1.83) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. De Graafschap (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Waalwijk (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: ) and 9).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, De Graafschap won 3.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Waalwijk may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.
- De Graafschap will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in De Graafschap: El Kadiri I.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There will not play in Waalwijk: van Osch Y.
(Injury)
van de Loo T.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 10 head-to-head matches, De Graafschap won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:7. (average 1.7:0.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, De Graafschap won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:2. (average 1.5:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has De Graafschap won against Waalwijk?
De Graafschap has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Waalwijk won against De Graafschap?
Waalwijk has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between De Graafschap - Waalwijk were as follows:
09.11.2025
Waalwijk
-
De Graafschap
1:4
Latest results of De Graafschap
Latest results of Waalwijk
Dutch Eerste Divisie Table
Main | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Den Haag ✔ | 36 | 27 | 2 | 7 | 82:35 | 47 | 83 |
| 2 | Cambuur ✔ | 36 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 72:44 | 28 | 75 |
| 3 | Willem II | 36 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 54:41 | 13 | 62 |
| 4 | De Graafschap | 36 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 71:56 | 15 | 60 |
| 5 | Jong PSV | 36 | 17 | 5 | 14 | 65:59 | 6 | 56 |
| 6 | Almere City | 36 | 17 | 4 | 15 | 73:59 | 14 | 55 |
| 7 | Waalwijk | 36 | 15 | 10 | 11 | 66:53 | 13 | 55 |
| 8 | Roda | 36 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 57:50 | 7 | 54 |
| 9 | Den Bosch | 35 | 14 | 8 | 13 | 61:61 | 0 | 50 |
| 10 | Dordrecht | 36 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 46:50 | -4 | 47 |
| 11 | Eindhoven FC | 36 | 13 | 5 | 18 | 50:66 | -16 | 44 |
| 12 | Vitesse | 36 | 15 | 10 | 11 | 63:53 | 10 | 43 |
| 13 | Venlo | 36 | 12 | 6 | 18 | 47:55 | -8 | 42 |
| 14 | FC Emmen | 36 | 11 | 8 | 17 | 55:70 | -15 | 41 |
| 15 | Jong Utrecht | 35 | 10 | 9 | 16 | 52:61 | -9 | 39 |
| 16 | Oss | 36 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 48:62 | -14 | 38 |
| 17 | Jong AZ | 36 | 11 | 4 | 21 | 59:73 | -14 | 37 |
| 18 | Maastricht | 36 | 9 | 10 | 17 | 41:71 | -30 | 37 |
| 19 | Helmond | 36 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 40:61 | -21 | 36 |
| 20 | Jong Ajax | 36 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 49:71 | -22 | 32 |
Promotion ~ Eredivisie
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Den Haag is Qualified for Eredivisie
Cambuur is Qualified for Eredivisie
