Result
4:2
15/02/2026 at 08:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Eredivisie - Round 23
- Referee: Oostrom I. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN Extra, ESPN |
 Suriname | QN Sports, SCCN |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.58 | 1.19 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 44% | 56% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (312/395) | 85% (422/497) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.58 | 1.19 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.45 | 1.43 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 25 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (312/395) | 85% (422/497) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 36% (17/47) | 46% (26/57) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 67% (83/123) | 80% (95/119) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (2/10) | 24% (5/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.89 | 1.17 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 24 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 59% (10/17) | 62% (13/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 42 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 28 | 29 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.43 | 1.45 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.57 | -2.55 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 13', 0 - 1, Namli Y. ⚽, Kostons K. (A),
- 16', 0 - 2, Gooijer T. ⚽, Namli Y. (A),
- 30', 1 - 2, Rivera M. ⚽, van Overeem J. (A),
- 31', Rivera M. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (3 - 0)
- 46', Graves S. ↓, Aertssen O. ↑,
- 52', 2 - 2, Nordas L. ⚽, Linday M. (A),
- 62', de Rooij K. ↓, Buurmeester Z. ↑,
- 63', Oosting T. ↓, Velanas O. ↑,
- 63', 3 - 2, Meerveld R. ⚽, van Overeem J. (A),
- 64', Oyen L. ↓, Gurbuz E. ↑,
- 72', Floranus S. ↓, Velthuis T. ↑,
- 77', Braude O. ↓, Egbring M. ↑,
- 83', Shoretire S. ↓, Faberski J. ↑,
- 87', Rivera M. ↓, Hopland N. ↑,
- 90', 4 - 2, Gurbuz E. ⚽, Egbring M. (A),
Chances of winning
Heerenveen
58.1% | Draw
22.4% | Zwolle
19.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Heerenveen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Heerenveen's form might have worsened.Zwolle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Zwolle's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (+6.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Heerenveen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zwolle than the current prediction. (-5.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Zwolle, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Heerenveen - Zwolle Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.64 ↑
(1.41) |
4.23 ↓
(4.71) |
4.81 ↓
(6.72) |
5.5%
(6.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Heerenveen - Zwolle?
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. Heerenveen will win (votes: 7 - 46.7%). Zwolle will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Heerenveen: 21.5% – 71.9%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Heerenveen (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Zwolle (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Zwolle (2.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.5 - Zwolle (4.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Heerenveen (votes: 2 - 40%). Zwolle (votes: 3 - 60%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 and 13).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heerenveen won 2.
- Heerenveen is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Zwolle's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Heerenveen may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Heerenveen is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Heerenveen: Smans L.
(Knee Injury)
Vente D.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Zwolle: Buurmeester Z.
(Inactive)
Lagsir S.
(Inactive)
Monteiro J.
(Inactive)
Schendelaar J.
(Injury)
Voute D.
(Inactive)
van der Haar D.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Heerenveen: Linday M.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Heerenveen won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 24:22. (average 1.2:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Heerenveen won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Heerenveen won against Zwolle?
Heerenveen has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Zwolle won against Heerenveen?
Zwolle has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Heerenveen - Zwolle were as follows:
28.11.2025
Zwolle
-
Heerenveen
2:1
09.10.2025
Heerenveen
-
Zwolle
4:1
16.02.2025
Zwolle
-
Heerenveen
1:1
06.10.2024
Heerenveen
-
Zwolle
1:1
03.03.2024
Heerenveen
-
Zwolle
2:0
Latest results of Heerenveen
Dutch Eredivisie Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSV ✔ | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 84:40 | 44 | 74 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 62:41 | 21 | 55 |
| 3 | Nijmegen | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 72:48 | 24 | 54 |
| 4 | Twente | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 51:32 | 19 | 53 |
| 5 | Ajax | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 57:37 | 20 | 51 |
| 6 | AZ Alkmaar | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 52:45 | 7 | 48 |
| 7 | Utrecht | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 49:36 | 13 | 44 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 53:50 | 3 | 44 |
| 9 | Groningen | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42:37 | 5 | 42 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 35:49 | -14 | 42 |
| 11 | G.A. Eagles | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 50:45 | 5 | 36 |
| 12 | Sittard | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 44:55 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Zwolle | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 40:60 | -20 | 34 |
| 14 | FC Volendam | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 31:50 | -19 | 28 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 31:51 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 | Telstar | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 39:52 | -13 | 27 |
| 17 | NAC Breda | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 30:51 | -21 | 25 |
| 18 | Heracles | 30 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 34:77 | -43 | 19 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie
Clinched Spots for Teams
PSV is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
