Result
3:1
31/01/2026 at 22:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- A-League Women - Round 15
- Referee: Mackie B. (Aus)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Australia | Channel 10, Paramount+ |
 Hong-kong | HOY TV |
 New-zealand | Sky Sport 7 |
 United-kingdom | Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 4 |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.76 | 0.52 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 31 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 17 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (245/337) | 68% (239/350) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.76 | 0.52 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.37 | 1.45 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 31 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 17 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 12 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 21 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 51 | 9 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (245/337) | 68% (239/350) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (23/48) | 30% (20/67) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (90/143) | 42% (31/74) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 32% (9/28) | 31% (4/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.30 | 0.29 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 21 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 100% (18/18) | 50% (4/8) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 28 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 28 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 13 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.45 | 3.37 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.45 | 0.37 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 32', Bunge C. 🟥,
- 45+1', Ray T. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (3 - 1)
- 49', 0 - 1, White K. ⚽, Morrison K. (A),
- 53', Saveska S. 🟨,
- 62', 1 - 1, Grove S. ⚽,
- 62', Sasaki N. ↓, Stanic-Floody M. ↑,
- 64', 2 - 1, Stanic-Floody M. ⚽, Heyman M. (A),
- 65', Taylor-Young H. ↓, Christopherson S. ↑,
- 65', Saveska S. ↓, Pollicina R. ↑,
- 65', Curtis R. ↓, Techera S. ↑,
- 75', 3 - 1, Bertolissio T. ⚽, Robers E. (A),
- 76', Furphy H. ↓, O'Grady E. ↑,
- 78', Bertolissio T. ↓, Wardlow J. ↑,
- 78', Heyman M. ↓, De Domizio K. ↑,
- 83', Gordon B. ↓, Malone D. ↑,
- 90+3', O'Grady E. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Canberra United
29.2% | Draw
27.2% | Melbourne Victory
43.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Canberra United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)Melbourne Victory has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Canberra United than the current prediction. (-2.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (+3.9%)
Canberra United - Melbourne Victory Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.12 ↓
(3.25) |
3.35 ↓
(3.42) |
2.09 ↑
(1.98) |
9.8%
(10.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Canberra United - Melbourne Victory?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Melbourne Victory (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League Women (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League Women (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Canberra United won 1.
- Canberra United has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Melbourne Victory is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Canberra United may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Melbourne Victory is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Canberra United won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 24:26. (average 1.3:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Canberra United won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:13. (average 1.9:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Canberra United won against Melbourne Victory?
Canberra United has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Melbourne Victory won against Canberra United?
Melbourne Victory has won 5 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Canberra United - Melbourne Victory were as follows:
05.12.2025
Melbourne Victory
-
Canberra United
1:3
09.03.2025
Melbourne Victory
-
Canberra United
2:0
21.12.2024
Canberra United
-
Melbourne Victory
0:2
20.01.2024
Canberra United
-
Melbourne Victory
2:3
16.12.2023
Melbourne Victory
-
Canberra United
2:0
Latest results of Canberra United
Latest results of Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League Women Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Melbourne City W | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 29:17 | 12 | 30 |
| 2 | Canberra W | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 25:17 | 8 | 27 |
| 3 | Adelaide W | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 19:17 | 2 | 26 |
| 4 | Wellington Phoenix W | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 29:13 | 16 | 25 |
| 5 | Perth W | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 17:22 | -5 | 23 |
| 6 | Melbourne Victory W | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 24:22 | 2 | 22 |
| 7 | Central Coast Mariners W | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 25:25 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 | Brisbane Roar W | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 26:31 | -5 | 22 |
| 9 | Newcastle W | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 21:28 | -7 | 17 |
| 10 | WS Wanderers W | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 16:31 | -15 | 16 |
| 11 | Sydney W | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 14:22 | -8 | 15 |
Promotion ~ A~League Women (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ A~League Women (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
