Result
1:3
17/01/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 18
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 3', 0 - 1, Garces U. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 80', 0 - 2, ⚽,
- 85', 1 - 2, ⚽,
- 90+9', 1 - 3, ⚽,
Chances of winning
Pasaia
26.4% | Draw
32% | Leioa
41.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Pasaia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)Leioa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pasaia than the current prediction. (-2.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leioa than the current prediction. (+6.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leioa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Pasaia - Leioa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.01 ↓
(3.65) |
2.48 ↓
(3.15) |
1.91 ↓
(1.98) |
25.8%
(9.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 7).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pasaia won 2.
- Pasaia has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Leioa has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Leioa might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Pasaia won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:22. (average 1.3:2.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Pasaia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 2:2.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Pasaia won against Leioa?
Pasaia has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Leioa won against Pasaia?
Leioa has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Pasaia - Leioa were as follows:
06.09.2025
Leioa
-
Pasaia
0:1
19.10.2024
Leioa
-
Pasaia
5:2
10.02.2024
Pasaia
-
Leioa
1:2
24.09.2023
Leioa
-
Pasaia
3:1
22.04.2023
Pasaia
-
Leioa
3:2
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Portugalete | 24 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 52:17 | 35 | 60 |
| 2 | Leioa | 24 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 35:23 | 12 | 45 |
| 3 | Lagun Onak | 24 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 36:22 | 14 | 41 |
| 4 | Touring KE | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 31:20 | 11 | 41 |
| 5 | Aurrera de Vitoria | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 31:30 | 1 | 40 |
| 6 | San Ignacio | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 24:18 | 6 | 38 |
| 7 | Derio | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 37:29 | 8 | 37 |
| 8 | Alaves C | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 38:27 | 11 | 36 |
| 9 | UD Aretxabaleta | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 41:40 | 1 | 35 |
| 10 | Durango | 24 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 24:21 | 3 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Sociedad C | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 26:28 | -2 | 33 |
| 12 | Santurtzi | 24 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 24:32 | -8 | 27 |
| 13 | Eibar C | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 28:38 | -10 | 26 |
| 14 | Zamudio | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 27:39 | -12 | 25 |
| 15 | Pasaia | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 16:30 | -14 | 24 |
| 16 | Anorga | 24 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 23:43 | -20 | 24 |
| 17 | Zarautz KE | 24 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 20:43 | -23 | 21 |
| 18 | SD Deusto | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 17:30 | -13 | 18 |
Promotion
Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 4 (Play Offs: )
Relegation
