Result
1:3
17/01/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 18
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 3', 0 - 1, Garces U. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 80', 0 - 2, ⚽,
- 85', 1 - 2, ⚽,
- 90+9', 1 - 3, ⚽,
Chances of winning
Pasaia
26.4% | Draw
32% | Leioa
41.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Pasaia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)Leioa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pasaia than the current prediction. (-2.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leioa than the current prediction. (+6.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leioa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Pasaia - Leioa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.01 ↓
(3.65) |
2.48 ↓
(3.15) |
1.91 ↓
(1.98) |
25.8%
(9.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 7).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pasaia won 2.
- Pasaia has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Leioa has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Leioa might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Pasaia won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:22. (average 1.3:2.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Pasaia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 2:2.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Pasaia won against Leioa?
Pasaia has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Leioa won against Pasaia?
Leioa has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Pasaia - Leioa were as follows:
06.09.2025
Leioa
-
Pasaia
0:1
19.10.2024
Leioa
-
Pasaia
5:2
10.02.2024
Pasaia
-
Leioa
1:2
24.09.2023
Leioa
-
Pasaia
3:1
22.04.2023
Pasaia
-
Leioa
3:2
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Portugalete | 33 | 23 | 6 | 4 | 68:28 | 40 | 75 |
| 2 | Leioa | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 48:31 | 17 | 61 |
| 3 | Touring KE | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 46:33 | 13 | 57 |
| 4 | Derio | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 53:40 | 13 | 55 |
| 5 | Lagun Onak | 33 | 16 | 6 | 11 | 51:32 | 19 | 54 |
| 6 | Alaves C | 33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 56:38 | 18 | 53 |
| 7 | Real Sociedad C | 33 | 16 | 4 | 13 | 46:38 | 8 | 52 |
| 8 | San Ignacio | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 35:26 | 9 | 52 |
| 9 | Aurrera de Vitoria | 33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 40:40 | 0 | 51 |
| 10 | UD Aretxabaleta | 33 | 12 | 6 | 15 | 53:60 | -7 | 42 |
| 11 | Durango | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 31:35 | -4 | 41 |
| 12 | Santurtzi | 33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 31:41 | -10 | 39 |
| 13 | Pasaia | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 26:43 | -17 | 36 |
| 14 | Anorga | 33 | 11 | 4 | 18 | 36:57 | -21 | 34 |
| 15 | Eibar C | 33 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 41:53 | -12 | 33 |
| 16 | Zamudio | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 41:56 | -15 | 33 |
| 17 | Zarautz KE | 33 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 30:59 | -29 | 30 |
| 18 | SD Deusto | 33 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 25:47 | -22 | 25 |
Promotion
Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 4 (Play Offs: )
Relegation
