Result
3:2
15/04/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 31
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 30', 1 - 0, ⚽,
- 45+3', 1 - 1, ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 51', 2 - 1, ⚽,
- 73', 3 - 1, ⚽,
- 89', 3 - 2, ⚽,
Chances of winning
Pasaia
41.8% | Draw
29.1% | Aretxabaleta
29% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Pasaia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)Aretxabaleta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Aretxabaleta might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pasaia than the current prediction. (-3.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aretxabaleta than the current prediction. (+6.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aretxabaleta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Pasaia - Aretxabaleta Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.17 ↓
(2.3) |
3.12 ↓
(3.5) |
3.13 ↑
(2.65) |
9.9%
(9.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
Preview Facts
- The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 10).
- Pasaia has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Aretxabaleta is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Aretxabaleta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Pasaia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Pasaia won against Aretxabaleta?
Pasaia has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Aretxabaleta won against Pasaia?
Aretxabaleta has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Pasaia - Aretxabaleta were as follows:
14.12.2025
Aretxabaleta
-
Pasaia
1:0
23.02.2025
Aretxabaleta
-
Pasaia
2:1
Latest results of Aretxabaleta
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Portugalete | 33 | 23 | 6 | 4 | 68:28 | 40 | 75 |
| 2 | Leioa | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 48:31 | 17 | 61 |
| 3 | Touring KE | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 46:33 | 13 | 57 |
| 4 | Derio | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 53:40 | 13 | 55 |
| 5 | Lagun Onak | 33 | 16 | 6 | 11 | 51:32 | 19 | 54 |
| 6 | Alaves C | 33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 56:38 | 18 | 53 |
| 7 | Real Sociedad C | 33 | 16 | 4 | 13 | 46:38 | 8 | 52 |
| 8 | San Ignacio | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 35:26 | 9 | 52 |
| 9 | Aurrera de Vitoria | 33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 40:40 | 0 | 51 |
| 10 | UD Aretxabaleta | 33 | 12 | 6 | 15 | 53:60 | -7 | 42 |
| 11 | Durango | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 31:35 | -4 | 41 |
| 12 | Santurtzi | 33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 31:41 | -10 | 39 |
| 13 | Pasaia | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 26:43 | -17 | 36 |
| 14 | Anorga | 33 | 11 | 4 | 18 | 36:57 | -21 | 34 |
| 15 | Eibar C | 33 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 41:53 | -12 | 33 |
| 16 | Zamudio | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 41:56 | -15 | 33 |
| 17 | Zarautz KE | 33 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 30:59 | -29 | 30 |
| 18 | SD Deusto | 33 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 25:47 | -22 | 25 |
Promotion
Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 4 (Play Offs: )
Relegation
