Result
1:1
28/09/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- MLS
- Referee: Mendoza R. (Usa)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | HBO Max, TNT, TNT Sports |
 Australia | SBS On Demand, SBS Viceland |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Brazil | HBO Max |
 Bulgaria | Max Sport 4 |
 Canada | Amazon Prime Video |
 Chile | TNT Sports |
 China | QQ Sports |
 Ecuador | TNT |
 Germany | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Italy | Amazon Prime Video |
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max, TNT Sports |
 Paraguay | TNT |
 Peru | TNT |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Usa | MLS Season Pass, SiriusXM FC |
 Venezuela | TNT |
 World | EA Sports FC |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.53 | 3.21 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 57% | 43% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 23 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (446/507) | 81% (309/381) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.53 | 3.21 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.41 | 1.09 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 23 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 19 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 38 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (446/507) | 81% (309/381) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 50% (22/44) | 40% (17/42) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (103/137) | 67% (60/89) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (5/15) | 40% (6/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.74 | 1.76 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 7 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 43% (6/14) | 50% (3/6) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 27 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.09 | 2.41 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.09 | 1.41 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 32', Atuesta E. 🟨,
- 37', Brekalo D. 🟨,
- 45+2', Gidi S. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 54', Freeman A. 🟨,
- 66', Evander 🟨,
- 66', Hagglund N. ↓, Powell A. ↑,
- 67', Smith K. 🟨,
- 69', Smith K. ↓, Gerbet J. ↑,
- 70', Angulo I. ↓, Spicer T. ↑,
- 73', 1 - 0, Denkey K. ⚽, Evander (A),
- 74', Denkey K. 🟨,
- 79', Brekalo D. ↓, Marin A. ↑,
- 79', McGuire D. ↓, Muriel L. ↑,
- 80', Bucha P. ↓, Anunga T. ↑,
- 80', Orellano L. ↓, Marczuk D. ↑,
- 80', Denkey K. ↓, Jabbari A. ↑,
- 83', Pasalic M. ↓, Rodriguez N. ↑,
- 86', Schlegel R. 🟨,
- 88', Gidi S. ↓, Kubo Y. ↑,
- 90+6', 1 - 1, Freeman A. ⚽, Spicer T. (A),
Chances of winning
Cincinnati
39.6% | Draw
24.3% | Orlando City
36.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cincinnati has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)Orlando City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cincinnati than the current prediction. (+2.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orlando City than the current prediction. (-3.6%)
Cincinnati - Orlando City Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.41 ↑
(2.24) |
3.93 ↑
(3.81) |
2.67 ↓
(2.93) |
4.5%
(5.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Cincinnati - Orlando City?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Cincinnati will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Orlando City will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cincinnati: 4% – 71%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Orlando City (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH 0 - Cincinnati (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Cincinnati (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Orlando City (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
- Cincinnati is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 2.
- In recent matches, Cincinnati has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Orlando City is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Recently, Orlando City has had a series of away games.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Cincinnati: Celentano R.
(Leg Injury)
Miazga M.
(Leg Injury)
Nwobodo O.
(Thigh Injury)
Smith B.
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Orlando City: Cartagena W.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Taifi Z.
(Thigh Injury)
Tsukada Y.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Orlando City: Araujo C.
(Back Injury)
Marin A.
(Thigh Injury)
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:17. (average 0.8:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Cincinnati won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 0.7:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Cincinnati won against Orlando City?
Cincinnati has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Orlando City won against Cincinnati?
Orlando City has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Cincinnati - Orlando City were as follows:
05.10.2024
Cincinnati
-
Orlando City
1:3
04.05.2024
Orlando City
-
Cincinnati
0:1
02.09.2023
Cincinnati
-
Orlando City
0:1
04.03.2023
Orlando City
-
Cincinnati
0:0
Latest results of Cincinnati
Latest results of Orlando City
MLS Table
2026Western Conference | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | San Diego FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Los Angeles FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Seattle Sounders | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | FC Dallas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Portland Timbers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Houston Dynamo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Minnesota United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Austin FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | St. Louis City | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:3 | -3 | 0 |
Eastern Conference | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | FC Cincinnati | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | DC United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | New York City | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Charlotte | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Toronto FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 0 |
| 8 | Columbus Crew | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 0 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Orlando City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Atlanta Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | New England Revolution | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:4 | -3 | 0 |
| 14 | Inter Miami | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:3 | -3 | 0 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:5 | -5 | 0 |
Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)
