Result
1:2
16/02/2026 at 15:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 22
- Referee: Baixinho R. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 9 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.24 | 0.45 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 60% | 40% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (452/539) | 79% (295/372) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.24 | 0.45 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.08 | 0.77 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 9 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 24 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (452/539) | 79% (295/372) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 42% (24/57) | 46% (21/46) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (84/137) | 63% (32/51) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 19% (6/31) | 0% (0/4) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.92 | 0.29 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 24 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 71% (12/17) | 61% (11/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 66 | 55 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 8 | 47 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.77 | 1.08 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.23 | 0.08 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 5', Monteiro T. 🟨,
- 17', 0 - 1, Rodri ⚽, Kiko Bondoso (A),
- 41', Kiko Bondoso 🟨,
- 42', 1 - 1, Blesa J. ⚽, Ntoi A. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 57', 1 - 2, Stjepanovic M. ⚽, Travassos (A),
- 58', Rodri 🟨,
- 60', Nikitscher T. ↓, Pohlmann O. ↑,
- 60', Spikic D. ↓, Papakanellos A. ↑,
- 73', Alanzinho ↓, John N. ↑,
- 74', Rodri ↓, Gower J. ↑,
- 82', Kiko Bondoso ↓, Landerson ↑,
- 85', Ntoi A. ↓, Ryan Guilherme ↑,
- 87', Stjepanovic M. 🟨,
- 89', Richards O. ↓, Graca J. ↑,
- 89', Travassos ↓, Kevyn Monteiro ↑,
- 90', Pinto D. ↓, Teguia C. ↑,
Chances of winning
Rio Ave
27.2% | Draw
30% | Moreirense
42.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Rio Ave has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Rio Ave's form might have worsened.Moreirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (+4.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (-1.8%)
Rio Ave - Moreirense Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.47 ↑
(2.76) |
3.15 ↓
(3.43) |
2.22 ↓
(2.47) |
5.6%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Rio Ave - Moreirense?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - Rio Ave (1.59) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Moreirense will win
(19 of 23 users predict this - 82.61%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.12% – 98.1%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Moreirense will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Rio Ave (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Moreirense (votes: 5 - 83.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 and 9).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave won 2.
- Rio Ave is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Moreirense has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Rio Ave: Aguilera Zamora B.
(Knee Injury)
Miszta C.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Moreirense: Caio
(Inactive)
Martinez A.
(Red Card)
Michel
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 25:23. (average 1.3:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Rio Ave won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:15. (average 1.3:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Rio Ave won against Moreirense?
Rio Ave has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Moreirense won against Rio Ave?
Moreirense has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Rio Ave - Moreirense were as follows:
13.09.2025
Moreirense
-
Rio Ave
3:1
13.04.2025
Moreirense
-
Rio Ave
0:2
30.11.2024
Rio Ave
-
Moreirense
3:2
02.03.2024
Moreirense
-
Rio Ave
0:0
01.10.2023
Rio Ave
-
Moreirense
0:4
Latest results of Rio Ave
Latest results of Moreirense
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
