Result
1:0
19/04/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 30
- Referee: Guelho S. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 1.26 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (322/376) | 83% (314/379) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 1.26 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.19 | 0.73 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 10 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 8 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (322/376) | 83% (314/379) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 38% (14/37) | 54% (30/56) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 73% (65/89) | 60% (55/92) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (3/12) | 16% (3/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.46 | 0.94 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 15 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (5/10) | 69% (9/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 31 | 54 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 34 | 11 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.73 | 1.19 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.73 | 0.19 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 23', Bernardo Schappo ↓, Luan Patrick ↑,
- 32', van Ee E. 🟨,
- 44', Sanchez J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', 1 - 0, Tiago Esgaio ⚽,
- 61', van Ee E. ↓, Pedro Santos ↑,
- 61', Gozalbez P. ↓, Trezza A. ↑,
- 69', Lee H. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
- 70', Jansson K. ↓, Jovane ↑,
- 70', Stoica I. ↓, Meireles J. ↑,
- 72', Pedro Santos 🟨,
- 75', Djouahra N. ↓, Rocha M. ↑,
- 75', Barbero I. ↓, Puche ↑,
- 80', Rodrigo Pinho ↓, van Hooijdonk S. ↑,
- 80', Doue G. ↓, Moreira P. ↑,
- 90', Meireles J. 🟨,
- 90+5', Flores M. 🟨,
- 90+6', Rocha M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Arouca
42.3% | Draw
31.2% | Estrela da Amadora
26.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)Estrela da Amadora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Estrela da Amadora's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (-5.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Estrela da Amadora, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Arouca - Estrela da Amadora Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.24 ↑
(2.04) |
3.07 ↑
(2.93) |
3.56 ↓
(4.44) |
5.4%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Arouca - Estrela da Amadora?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Arouca will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Estrela will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arouca: 16.1% – 74.9%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 12 and 15).
- In recent matches, Arouca has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Estrela's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Arouca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Arouca will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Arouca: Nandin D.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Estrela: Encada J.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Estrela: Drame I.
(Injury)
Gbomadu M.
(Injury)
Moreira P.
(Inactive)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.4:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Arouca won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Estrela da Amadora?
Arouca has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Estrela da Amadora won against Arouca?
Estrela da Amadora has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Arouca - Estrela da Amadora were as follows:
07.12.2025
Estrela da Amadora
-
Arouca
3:1
19.04.2025
Arouca
-
Estrela da Amadora
1:0
09.12.2024
Estrela da Amadora
-
Arouca
2:1
05.05.2024
Arouca
-
Estrela da Amadora
0:0
28.12.2023
Estrela da Amadora
-
Arouca
1:4
Latest results of Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 31 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 63:15 | 48 | 82 |
| 2 | Benfica | 31 | 22 | 9 | 0 | 67:20 | 47 | 75 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 77:22 | 55 | 73 |
| 4 | Braga | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 59:31 | 28 | 56 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 39:27 | 12 | 51 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 46:32 | 14 | 49 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 38:43 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 34:45 | -11 | 39 |
| 9 | Alverca | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 34:49 | -15 | 38 |
| 10 | Estoril | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 51:52 | -1 | 37 |
| 11 | Arouca | 31 | 10 | 5 | 16 | 39:60 | -21 | 35 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 33:52 | -19 | 34 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 28:38 | -10 | 32 |
| 14 | Nacional | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 34:41 | -7 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela | 31 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 34:51 | -17 | 28 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 29:55 | -26 | 26 |
| 17 | Tondela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 23:52 | -29 | 22 |
| 18 | AFS ✔ | 31 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 22:65 | -43 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
Clinched Spots for Teams
AFS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2
