Holstein Kiel vs Paderborn – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German 2 Bundesliga
Result
2:0
18/01/2026 at 07:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • 2. Bundesliga - Round 18
  • Referee: Bacher M. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
austriaAustriaRTL, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
bulgariaBulgariaDiema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaSportKlub 6
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay
germanyGermanyRTL, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW
icelandIcelandViaplay
israelIsraelSport 3
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 5
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
norwayNorwayViaplay
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN SPORTS MAX
portugalPortugalDAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaPrima Sport PPV 1
slovakiaSlovakiaSport TV2
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandRTL, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
thailandThailandbeIN Connect
turkeyTurkeyTivibu Spor 4
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
0.890.73
Ball possession
38%62%
Total shots
718
Shots on target
36
Big chances
21
Corner kicks
111
Passes
80% (261/327)84% (450/536)
Yellow cards
33
Expected goals (xG)
0.890.73
xG on target (xGOT)
1.210.97
Total shots
718
Shots on target
36
Shots off target
28
Blocked shots
24
Shots inside the box
69
Shots outside the box
19
Hit the woodwork
00
Headed goals
10
Big chances
21
Corner kicks
111
Touches in opposition box
1021
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
04
Free kicks
1812
Passes
80% (261/327)84% (450/536)
Long passes
33% (15/45)66% (41/62)
Passes in final third
59% (27/46)68% (94/139)
Crosses
40% (4/10)33% (9/27)
Expected assists (xA)
0.670.95
Throw ins
1527
Fouls
1218
Tackles
64% (9/14)71% (12/17)
Duels won
5054
Clearances
4311
Interceptions
1316
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
51
xGOT faced
0.971.21
Goals prevented
0.97-0.79

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 18', 1 - 0, Skrzybski S. ⚽, Harres P. (A),
  • 33', Baur M. 🟨,
  • 44', Zec D. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 61', Tohumcu U. ↓, Davidsen K. ↑,
  • 61', Niehoff N. ↓, Rosenboom L. ↑,
  • 62', Batzner N. ↓, Okpala K. ↑,
  • 62', Michel S. ↓, Bilbija F. ↑,
  • 67', 2 - 0, Rosenboom L. ⚽,
  • 68', Scheller T. ↓, Hansen M. ↑,
  • 74', Skrzybski S. ↓, Kapralik A. ↑,
  • 81', Tigges S. ↓, Muller R. ↑,
  • 81', Klaas S. ↓, Engelns L. ↑,
  • 82', Meffert J. 🟨,
  • 85', Therkelsen J. ↓, Schwab S. ↑,
  • 85', Harres P. ↓, Jakupovic A. ↑,
  • 88', Jakupovic A. 🟨,
  • 90+11', Okpala K. 🟨,
  • 90+12', Hansen M. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Holstein Kiel
31.6%		Draw
27.9%		Paderborn
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
32.6% 26.7% 40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4% 26.9% 41%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)
  • Paderborn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+0.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (+0.6%)
    •

    Holstein Kiel - Paderborn Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.97 ↑
    (2.9)    		 3.36 ↓
    (3.53)    		 2.31 ↓
    (2.32)    		 6.8%
    (5.9%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Holstein Kiel - Paderborn?
  • Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). Paderborn will win (votes: 12 - 70.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Paderborn: 48.9% – 92.3%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.25 - Holstein Kiel (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Paderborn will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Holstein Kiel (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Paderborn (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 4).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 2.
    • Holstein Kiel is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Paderborn is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Paderborn may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
    • There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Bernhardsson A. (Foot Injury) Erras P. (Concussion) Johansson C. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Paderborn: Hoffmeier M. (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:25. (average 2.1:1.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Holstein Kiel won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.7:1.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Holstein Kiel - Paderborn were as follows:
    02.08.2025 Paderborn - Holstein Kiel 2:1
    17.02.2024 Paderborn - Holstein Kiel 0:4
    02.09.2023 Holstein Kiel - Paderborn 2:1
    25.02.2023 Holstein Kiel - Paderborn 1:1
    Latest results of Holstein Kiel
    10.01.2026 Ferencvárosi - Holstein Kiel 0:2
    07.01.2026 Holstein Kiel - Servette 1:1
    20.12.2025 Holstein Kiel - Dynamo Dresden 2:1 ✺
    13.12.2025 Magdeburg - Holstein Kiel 3:3 ✺
    07.12.2025 Eintracht Braunschweig - Holstein Kiel 1:1 ✺
    Latest results of Paderborn
    19.12.2025 Paderborn - Darmstadt 2:2 ✺
    13.12.2025 Karlsruher - Paderborn 0:4 ✺
    06.12.2025 Paderborn - Elversberg 1:2 ✺
    28.11.2025 Schalke 04 - Paderborn 2:1 ✺
    22.11.2025 Paderborn - Hannover 0:2 ✺
    German 2 Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Schalke31197548:282064
    2Paderborn31177754:381658
    3Hannover31169653:371657
    4Elversberg31168755:352056
    5Darmstadt311312655:401551
    6Hertha Berlin31139944:36848
    7Kaiserslautern311441349:46346
    8Nurnberg311181240:41-141
    9Karlsruher SC311171348:59-1140
    10Bochum311091245:44139
    11Holstein Kiel311081340:43-338
    12SG Dynamo Dresden31981450:50035
    13Arminia Bielefeld31981446:47-135
    14Braunschweig31971534:50-1634
    15Dusseldorf311041730:48-1834
    16Magdeburg311031848:56-833
    17Greuther Furth31961644:65-2133
    18Preussen Munster316101534:54-2028

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