Result
1:2
15/02/2026 at 15:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Play Offs - Quarter-finals
- Where to Watch on TV:
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 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.39 | 1.34 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 43% | 57% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (322/383) | 90% (453/506) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.39 | 1.34 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
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| 0.21 | 2.38 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
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| 5 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 10 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
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| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (322/383) | 90% (453/506) |
| Long passes |
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| 59% (33/56) | 57% (20/35) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (42/66) | 75% (92/123) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 27% (4/15) | 36% (5/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.50 | 0.66 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 11 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (12/18) | 67% (10/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 51 |
| Clearances |
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| 6 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.38 | 0.21 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.38 | -0.79 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 9', Bastos 🟨,
- 19', 0 - 1, Lucas Paqueta ⚽, Bruno Henrique (A),
- 45+2', Danilo ↓, Arthur Novaes ↑,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 54', 1 - 1, Barboza A. ⚽, Alex Telles (A),
- 60', Samuel Lino ↓, Everton ↑,
- 60', Bruno Henrique ↓, de Arrascaeta G. ↑,
- 65', Matheus Martins ↓, Arthur Cabral ↑,
- 65', Montoro A. ↓, Artur ↑,
- 70', Villalba Jaume L. M. 🟨,
- 70', Anselmi M. 🟨,
- 72', Carrascal J. ↓, Evertton Araujo ↑,
- 72', Plata G. ↓, Luiz Araujo ↑,
- 83', Bastos ↓, Ythallo ↑,
- 83', Villalba Jaume L. M. ↓, Nathan Fernandes ↑,
- 84', 1 - 2, Pulgar E. ⚽,
- 89', Lucas Paqueta ↓, Leo Pereira ↑,
Chances of winning
Botafogo RJ
20.4% | Draw
27.5% | Flamengo
52.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Botafogo RJ has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)Flamengo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (-1.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (+3.7%)
Botafogo RJ - Flamengo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.57 ↓
(4.79) |
3.38 ↓
(3.44) |
1.78 ↑
(1.69) |
7.6%
(9.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 1.
- Botafogo is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Flamengo has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Botafogo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Flamengo is seen as the favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 17:31. (average 0.9:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Botafogo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 8:20. (average 0.7:1.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Botafogo RJ won against Flamengo?
Botafogo RJ has won 2 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Flamengo won against Botafogo RJ?
Flamengo has won 7 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Botafogo RJ - Flamengo were as follows:
15.10.2025
Botafogo RJ
-
Flamengo
0:3
18.05.2025
Flamengo
-
Botafogo RJ
0:0
12.02.2025
Flamengo
-
Botafogo RJ
1:0
02.02.2025
Botafogo RJ
-
Flamengo
1:3
18.08.2024
Botafogo RJ
-
Flamengo
4:1
Latest results of Botafogo RJ
Latest results of Flamengo
Draw
Taca Guanabara - Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Fluminense | Bangu | 3 : 1 |
| 2 | Vasco | Volta Redonda | 2 : 1 |
| 3 | Botafogo RJ | Flamengo RJ | 1 : 2 |
| 4 | Madureira | Boavista | 2 : 1 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Fluminense | Vasco | 1 : 0 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | Madureira | 3 : 0 |
Final
