Result
2:2
26/10/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 15
- Referee: Valle J. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping |
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Azteca Deportes, Caliente TV |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.01 | 1.40 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 59% | 41% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (408/463) | 83% (277/333) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.01 | 1.40 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.83 | 1.47 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 12 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (408/463) | 83% (277/333) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 60% (24/40) | 40% (18/45) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 79% (109/138) | 74% (78/106) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 27% (7/26) | 17% (2/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.54 | 0.40 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 11 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (10/15) | 54% (7/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 39 | 42 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.47 | 0.83 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.53 | -1.17 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 10', 1 - 0, Gallardo J. ⚽, Angulo J. (A),
- 25', 2 - 0, Paulinho ⚽, Vega A. (A),
- 28', Gallardo J. 🟨,
- 45', 2 - 1, Valencia E. ⚽, Guzman V. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 48', Bautista A. 🟨,
- 55', 2 - 2, Valencia E. (Pen),
- 57', Paulinho 🟨,
- 58', Carvalho W. ↓, Sanchez C. ↑,
- 58', Barreto S. D. 🟨,
- 58', Vega A. 🟨,
- 66', Castro N. ↓, del Villar E. ↑,
- 72', Togni G. ↓, Luna I. ↑,
- 75', Vega A. ↓, Morales R. ↑,
- 76', Bautista A. 🟥,
- 82', Pereira F. ↓, Herrera H. ↑,
- 83', Valencia E. ↓, Cadiz J. ↑,
- 85', Sanchez C. 🟨,
- 90+7', Moreno C. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Toluca
60% | Draw
21.1% | Pachuca
18.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Toluca - Pachuca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.56
(1.56) |
4.42 ↑
(4.4) |
4.92 ↑
(4.8) |
6.9%
(7.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Toluca - Pachuca?
Users Predictions:
7 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Pachuca will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )).
- Toluca is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 4.
- Toluca has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- In recent matches, Pachuca has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- In this match, Toluca is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Toluca: Luan
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Pachuca: Eduardo Bauermann
(Red Card)
Idrissi O.
(Red Card)
Micolta A.
(Knee Injury)
Pedraza P.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Pachuca: Dominguez A.
(Injury)
Kenedy
(Injury)
Montiel E.
(Groin Injury)
- We predict that Toluca will win today's game, with odds of 1.56.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 37:35. (average 1.9:1.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:19. (average 2.1:1.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Pachuca?
Toluca has won 4 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Pachuca won against Toluca?
Pachuca has won 3 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Pachuca were as follows:
29.03.2025
Toluca
-
Pachuca
3:2
17.09.2024
Pachuca
-
Toluca
2:2
30.03.2024
Pachuca
-
Toluca
2:3
03.09.2023
Toluca
-
Pachuca
5:0
19.02.2023
Pachuca
-
Toluca
1:2
Latest results of Pachuca
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca ✔ | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 43:18 | 25 | 37 |
| 2 | Tigres UANL ✔ | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 35:16 | 19 | 36 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul ✔ | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 32:20 | 12 | 35 |
| 4 | Club America ✔ | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 33:18 | 15 | 34 |
| 5 | Monterrey ✔ | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 33:29 | 4 | 31 |
| 6 | Guadalajara Chivas ✔ | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 29:22 | 7 | 29 |
| 7 | Club Tijuana ✔ | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 29:23 | 6 | 24 |
| 8 | Juarez ✔ | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 27:28 | -1 | 23 |
| 9 | Pachuca ✔ | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 21:20 | 1 | 22 |
| 10 | UNAM Pumas | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 24:25 | -1 | 21 |
| 11 | Queretaro | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 19:29 | -10 | 20 |
| 12 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 21:28 | -7 | 17 |
| 13 | Necaxa | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 24:32 | -8 | 17 |
| 14 | Atlas | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 24:35 | -11 | 17 |
| 15 | Atl. San Luis | 17 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 25:29 | -4 | 16 |
| 16 | Mazatlan FC | 17 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 20:29 | -9 | 14 |
| 17 | Club Leon | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14:31 | -17 | 13 |
| 18 | Puebla | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 21:42 | -21 | 12 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Toluca is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Tigres UANL is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Cruz Azul is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Club America is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Monterrey is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Guadalajara Chivas is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Club Tijuana is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In )
Juarez is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In )
Pachuca is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In )
