Result
1:1
14/03/2026 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Clausura - Round 11
- Referee: Ramos C. A. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Canal 5, FOX One, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | TUDN App, TUDN, Univision |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.19 | 1.14 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 63% | 37% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 26 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (380/435) | 74% (194/263) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.19 | 1.14 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.41 | 0.98 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 26 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 16 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 30 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (380/435) | 74% (194/263) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 67% (30/45) | 24% (12/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 80% (101/126) | 62% (49/79) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 32% (9/28) | 29% (4/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.19 | 0.54 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 64% (9/14) | 63% (10/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 40 | 36 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 10 | 33 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.98 | 1.41 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.02 | 0.41 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 35', Gonzalez D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Zaldivar E. ↓, Rios De Alba V. H. ↑,
- 56', Aguirre G. 🟨,
- 59', Perez P. ↓, Helinho ↑,
- 59', Rossi F. ↓, Paulinho ↑,
- 65', Paulinho 🟨,
- 65', Arteaga V. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
- 65', Cordova S. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
- 70', Rocha A. 🟨,
- 70', Luan 🟨,
- 79', Rocha A. ↓, Gamboa L. ↑,
- 85', Aceves S. ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
- 88', Gonzalez A. ↓, Aguirre E. ↑,
- 90+2', 1 - 0, Angulo J. ⚽, Paulinho (A),
- 90+4', 1 - 1, Rios De Alba V. H. ⚽, Gamboa L. (A),
Chances of winning
Toluca
60.2% | Draw
23.1% | Atlas
16.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toluca's form might have worsened.Atlas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlas's recent form is better than expected.
Toluca - Atlas Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.56 ↑
(1.26) |
4.06 ↓
(5.89) |
5.66 ↓
(10.58) |
6.4%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Toluca - Atlas?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1.5 - Atlas (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlas (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 3.
- Toluca is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Atlas's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Toluca is the clear favorite.
- There will not play in Atlas: Ortega E.
(Suspended)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Ruiz M.
(Injury)
Simon S.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Atlas: Cruz C.
(Knee Injury)
- We predict that Toluca will win today's game, with odds of 1.37.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 38:24. (average 1.9:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 28:16. (average 2.8:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Atlas?
Toluca has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlas won against Toluca?
Atlas has won 0 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Atlas were as follows:
01.11.2025
Atlas
-
Toluca
0:0
12.04.2025
Atlas
-
Toluca
2:3
28.09.2024
Toluca
-
Atlas
4:1
07.04.2024
Toluca
-
Atlas
4:1
26.08.2023
Atlas
-
Toluca
0:0
Mexican Liga MX Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | UNAM Pumas | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 34:17 | 17 | 36 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 33:17 | 16 | 36 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 31:18 | 13 | 33 |
| 4 | Pachuca | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 25:19 | 6 | 31 |
| 5 | Toluca | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 28:16 | 12 | 30 |
| 6 | Atlas | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 16:18 | -2 | 26 |
| 7 | Tigres UANL | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 28:18 | 10 | 25 |
| 8 | Club America | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 20:17 | 3 | 25 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 19:17 | 2 | 23 |
| 10 | Club Leon | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 22:32 | -10 | 22 |
| 11 | Queretaro | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Juarez | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 26:32 | -6 | 19 |
| 13 | Monterrey | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 22:24 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 | Atl. San Luis | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 24:27 | -3 | 18 |
| 15 | Necaxa | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 19:25 | -6 | 18 |
| 16 | Mazatlan FC | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 22:37 | -15 | 15 |
| 17 | Puebla | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 13:26 | -13 | 13 |
| 18 | Santos Laguna | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 20:38 | -18 | 12 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
