Result
5:1
25/04/2026 at 07:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Championship - Round 45
- Referee: Herczeg A. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Iceland | Viaplay |
 Norway | TV2 Play, Viaplay |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
 Usa | Paramount+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.22 | 0.76 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 56% | 44% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (477/542) | 85% (369/435) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.22 | 0.76 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 4.06 | 0.56 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (477/542) | 85% (369/435) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (21/40) | 42% (16/38) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 76% (98/129) | 69% (49/71) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 44% (8/18) | 25% (3/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.16 | 0.52 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 55% (6/11) | 81% (13/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 30 | 38 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 14 | 16 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.56 | 4.06 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.44 | -0.94 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 6', 1 - 0, Whittaker M. ⚽,
- 45+1', 2 - 0, Strelec D. ⚽, Whittaker M. (A),
- 2nd Half (3 - 1)
- 46', Bangura A. ↓, Targett M. ↑,
- 48', 2 - 1, Abankwah J. ⚽, Keben K. (A),
- 58', 3 - 1, Whittaker M. ⚽,
- 62', Ngakia J. ↓, Maamma O. ↑,
- 62', Bove E. ↓, Doumbia M. ↑,
- 63', Kjerrumgaard L. ↓, Irankunda N. ↑,
- 63', Mendy N. ↓, Grieves J. ↑,
- 63', Whittaker M. ↓, Conway T. ↑,
- 63', Malanda A. ↓, Fry D. ↑,
- 64', Hansen S. ↓, Castledine L. ↑,
- 74', Abankwah J. 🟨,
- 75', 4 - 1, Conway T. (Penalty Awarded),
- 82', Bola M. ↓, Ince T. ↑,
- 83', Sarmiento J. ↓, Silvera S. ↑,
- 85', Louza I. 🟨,
- 85', Morris A. 🟨,
- 90+2', 5 - 1, Conway T. ⚽, Strelec D. (A),
Chances of winning
Middlesbrough
67.9% | Draw
19.2% | Watford
12.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Middlesbrough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Middlesbrough's performance.Watford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (-22.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Middlesbrough that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Watford than the current prediction. (+10.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Watford could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Middlesbrough - Watford Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.4 ↓
(1.53) |
4.91 ↑
(4.4) |
7.31 ↑
(5.6) |
5.4%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Middlesbrough - Watford?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -1 - Middlesbrough (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Middlesbrough will win
(11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Middlesbrough (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 15).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Middlesbrough won 2.
- Middlesbrough has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Watford has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Watford may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Middlesbrough is the undeniable favorite.
- There will not play in Middlesbrough: Hackney H.
(Calf Injury)
Jones A.
(Ankle Injury)
Lenihan D.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
- There will not play in Watford: Grieves J.
(Inactive)
Kyprianou H.
(Ankle Injury)
Vata R.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There are questionable in Middlesbrough: McGree R.
(Injury)
- In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Middlesbrough won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 17:23. (average 0.9:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Middlesbrough won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.3:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Middlesbrough won against Watford?
Middlesbrough has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Watford won against Middlesbrough?
Watford has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Middlesbrough - Watford were as follows:
01.11.2025
Watford
-
Middlesbrough
3:0
15.02.2025
Middlesbrough
-
Watford
0:1
05.10.2024
Watford
-
Middlesbrough
2:1
04.05.2024
Middlesbrough
-
Watford
3:1
30.09.2023
Watford
-
Middlesbrough
2:3
Latest results of Middlesbrough
Latest results of Watford
English League Championship Table
Main | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Coventry | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 97:45 | 52 | 95 |
| 2 | Ipswich | 46 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 80:47 | 33 | 84 |
| 3 | Millwall | 46 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 64:49 | 15 | 83 |
| 4 | Southampton | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 82:56 | 26 | 80 |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 72:47 | 25 | 80 |
| 6 | Hull | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 70:66 | 4 | 73 |
| 7 | Wrexham | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69:65 | 4 | 71 |
| 8 | Derby | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 67:59 | 8 | 69 |
| 9 | Norwich | 46 | 19 | 8 | 19 | 63:56 | 7 | 65 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 57:56 | 1 | 64 |
| 11 | Swansea | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 57:59 | -2 | 64 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 59:59 | 0 | 62 |
| 13 | Sheffield Utd | 46 | 18 | 6 | 22 | 66:66 | 0 | 60 |
| 14 | Preston | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 55:62 | -7 | 60 |
| 15 | QPR | 46 | 16 | 10 | 20 | 61:73 | -12 | 58 |
| 16 | Watford | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 53:65 | -12 | 57 |
| 17 | Stoke | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 51:56 | -5 | 55 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 49:64 | -15 | 55 |
| 19 | Charlton | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 44:58 | -14 | 53 |
| 20 | Blackburn | 46 | 13 | 13 | 20 | 42:56 | -14 | 52 |
| 21 | West Brom | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 48:58 | -10 | 51 |
| 22 | Oxford Utd | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 45:59 | -14 | 47 |
| 23 | Leicester | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 58:68 | -10 | 46 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wed | 46 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 29:89 | -60 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Premier League
Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ League One
