Result
3:2
24/04/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 2 - Round 32
- Referee: Bouille T. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.04 | 2.03 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 36% | 64% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (185/267) | 85% (414/486) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.04 | 2.03 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.27 | 1.84 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
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| 14 | 25 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 20 | 23 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (185/267) | 85% (414/486) |
| Long passes |
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| 35% (19/55) | 67% (35/52) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 56% (51/91) | 68% (87/128) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 31% (5/16) | 16% (3/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.48 | 1.33 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 14 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 23 | 20 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 73% (16/22) | 78% (7/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 61 | 50 |
| Clearances |
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| 32 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
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| 8 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.84 | 1.27 |
| Goals prevented |
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| -0.16 | -1.73 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (3 - 1)
- 6', 0 - 1, Mafouta L. ⚽, Matumona J. (A),
- 34', 1 - 1, Durand D. ⚽,
- 35', 2 - 1, Ikanga J. ⚽, Pierret B. (A),
- 43', 3 - 1, Hachem R. ⚽, Cabral K. (A),
- 45+2', Matumona J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 60', Cabral K. 🟨,
- 63', Mbemba F. ↓, Samoura A. ↑,
- 63', Louiserre D. ↓, Sidibe K. ↑,
- 63', Kielt S. ↓, Demoncy Y. ↑,
- 68', Sylla D. ↓, Magnin T. ↑,
- 69', Cabral K. ↓, Benali H. ↑,
- 71', 3 - 2, Mafouta L. (Penalty Awarded),
- 77', Poussin G. ↓, Beunardeau Q. ↑,
- 77', Ahile T. ↓, Matondo T. ↑,
- 80', Sagna A. ↓, Diakite I. ↑,
- 87', Hachem R. ↓, Escartin J. ↑,
- 87', Durand D. ↓, Ba P. M. ↑,
- 90+5', Danger B. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Red Star
51.5% | Draw
25.1% | Guingamp
23.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Red Star has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Red Star's performance.Guingamp has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Guingamp might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Red Star than the current prediction. (-9.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Red Star that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guingamp than the current prediction. (+7.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Guingamp could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Red Star - Guingamp Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.83 ↓
(2.29) |
3.72 ↑
(3.3) |
4.01 ↑
(2.95) |
6.5%
(7.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Red Star - Guingamp?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- DC - Red Star (1.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Red Star will win
(19 of 20 users predict this - 95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.45% – 100%.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Red Star (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 11).
- Red Star is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Guingamp is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Red Star could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Red Star: Cisse K.
(Inactive)
Doucoure R.
(Knee Injury)
Haag G.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Guingamp: Gomis D.
(Inactive)
Hatchi J.
(Inactive)
Hemia A.
(Knee Injury)
Koffi E.
(Inactive)
N'Landu D.
(Knee Injury)
Njoya Y.
(Inactive)
Ott G.
(Knee Injury)
Planeix I.
(Inactive)
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Red Star won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:4. (average 3.7:1.3).
- Including home match between the teams, Red Star won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Red Star won against Guingamp?
Red Star has won 3 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Guingamp won against Red Star?
Guingamp has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Red Star - Guingamp were as follows:
23.08.2025
Guingamp
-
Red Star
0:4
01.03.2025
Red Star
-
Guingamp
3:1
30.08.2024
Guingamp
-
Red Star
3:4
Latest results of Red Star
Latest results of Guingamp
French Ligue 2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Troyes ✔ | 33 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 60:32 | 28 | 67 |
| 2 | Le Mans | 33 | 15 | 14 | 4 | 48:31 | 17 | 59 |
| 3 | St Etienne | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 54:38 | 16 | 57 |
| 4 | Red Star | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 44:36 | 8 | 57 |
| 5 | Rodez | 33 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 43:38 | 5 | 55 |
| 6 | Reims | 33 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 48:32 | 16 | 53 |
| 7 | Annecy | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 48:37 | 11 | 52 |
| 8 | Montpellier | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 40:30 | 10 | 50 |
| 9 | Pau FC | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 45:57 | -12 | 45 |
| 10 | Dunkerque | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 51:42 | 9 | 43 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 42:48 | -6 | 40 |
| 12 | Grenoble | 33 | 7 | 15 | 11 | 32:39 | -7 | 36 |
| 13 | Boulogne | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 33:47 | -14 | 36 |
| 14 | Clermont | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 37:44 | -7 | 34 |
| 15 | Nancy | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 32:50 | -18 | 34 |
| 16 | Laval | 33 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 28:47 | -19 | 29 |
| 17 | Bastia | 33 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 23:37 | -14 | 28 |
| 18 | Amiens ✔ | 33 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 37:60 | -23 | 24 |
Promotion ~ Ligue 1
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ National
Clinched Spots for Teams
Troyes is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Ligue 1
Amiens is Relegated to National
