Derby County vs Luton Town – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football English League Championship
Result
0:1
18/04/2025 at 07:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Championship - Round 43
  • Referee: Linington J. (Eng)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 8
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usaUsaParamount+
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.780.67
Ball Possession
59%41%
Total shots
148
Shots on target
41
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
94
Passes
63% (192/307)56% (128/227)
Yellow Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
1.780.67
xG on target (xGOT)
0.540.53
Total shots
148
Shots on target
41
Shots off target
35
Blocked Shots
72
Shots inside the Box
127
Shots outside the Box
21
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
94
Touches in opposition box
3820
Offsides
22
Free Kicks
139
Passes
63% (192/307)56% (128/227)
Long passes
41% (28/69)22% (13/58)
Passes in final third
61% (84/137)44% (35/80)
Crosses
17% (7/41)23% (3/13)
Expected assists (xA)
1.410.31
Fouls
913
Tackles
65% (11/17)63% (5/8)
Duels won
8362
Clearances Total
3081
Interceptions
43
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
04
xGOT faced
0.530.54
Goals prevented
-0.470.54

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 10', 0 - 1, Alli M. ⚽,
  • 15', Mendez-Laing N. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
  • 29', Langas S. 🟨,
  • 38', Morris C. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 68', Alli M. 🟨,
  • 72', Dabo L. ↓, Mengi T. ↑,
  • 73', Jones I. ↓, Burke R. ↑,
  • 76', Langas S. ↓, Goudmijn K. ↑,
  • 81', Clark J. ↓, Nakamba M. ↑,
  • 81', Morris C. ↓, Nordas L. ↑,
  • 90+3', Armstrong H. ↓, Barkhuizen T. ↑,
  • 90+4', Alli M. ↓, Chong T. ↑,
  • 90+5', Jackson K. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Derby County
38.3%		Draw
32.3%		Luton Town
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
44.1% 28.2% 27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2% 28.8% 28.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Derby County's form might have worsened.
  • Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+4.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-1%)
    •

    Derby County - Luton Town Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.48 ↑
    (2.14)    		 2.95 ↓
    (3.35)    		 3.25 ↓
    (3.41)    		 5.1%
    (5.9%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
    What is the prediction for Derby County - Luton Town?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • DC - Luton (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.25 - Derby (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Derby County will win (34 of 41 users predict this - 82.93%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 94.45%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Derby County will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Derby (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Luton (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 21 and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League One).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Derby won 1.
    • The game of competitors is shaky now.
    • Derby will have a mini benefit in this match.
    • There will not play in Derby: Blackett-Taylor C. (Hamstring Injury) Brown D. (Hamstring Injury) Nelson C. (Knee Injury) Nyambe R. (Injury) Osborn B. (Hamstring Injury) Ozoh D. (Thigh Injury) Roofe K. (Hamstring Injury) Salvesen L. (Knee Injury) Ward J. (Injury)
    • There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E. (Knee Injury) Brown J. (Ankle Injury) Lockyer T. (Ankle Injury)
    • There are questionable in Derby: Elder C. (Lacking Match Fitness)
    • There are questionable in Luton: Doughty A. (Injury)
    • Last 7 head-to-head matches Derby won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10:10 (average 1.4:1.4).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:2 (average 2:0.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Derby County - Luton Town were as follows:
    20.12.2024 Luton Town - Derby County 2:1
    Latest results of Derby County
    12.04.2025 Portsmouth - Derby County 2:2 ✺
    08.04.2025 Derby County - Burnley 0:0 ✺
    05.04.2025 Swansea City - Derby County 1:0 ✺
    02.04.2025 Derby County - Preston North End 2:0 ✺
    15.03.2025 Plymouth Argyle - Derby County 2:3 ✺
    Latest results of Luton Town
    12.04.2025 Luton Town - Blackburn Rovers 0:1 ✺
    08.04.2025 Stoke City - Luton Town 1:1 ✺
    05.04.2025 Luton Town - Leeds United 1:1 ✺
    29.03.2025 Hull City - Luton Town 0:1 ✺
    15.03.2025 Luton Town - Middlesbrough 0:0 ✺
    English League Championship Table
    Main
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Coventry462811797:455295
    2Ipswich462315880:473384
    3Millwall4624111164:491583
    4Southampton4622141082:562680
    5Middlesbrough4622141072:472580
    6Hull4621101570:66473
    7Wrexham4619141369:65471
    8Derby462091767:59869
    9Norwich461981963:56765
    10Birmingham4617131657:56164
    11Swansea4618101857:59-264
    12Bristol City4617111859:59062
    13Sheffield Utd461862266:66060
    14Preston4615151655:62-760
    15QPR4616102061:73-1258
    16Watford4614151753:65-1257
    17Stoke4615102151:56-555
    18Portsmouth4614131949:64-1555
    19Charlton4613141944:58-1453
    20Blackburn4613132042:56-1452
    21West Brom4613141948:58-1051
    22Oxford Utd4611142145:59-1447
    23Leicester4612161858:68-1046
    24Sheffield Wed462123229:89-600

          Promotion ~ Premier League
          Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
          Relegation ~ League One

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