Result
3:2
07/02/2026 at 15:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 21
- Referee: Fonseca M. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 Uruguay | Antel TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.72 | 1.67 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 51% | 49% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (296/384) | 77% (282/367) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.72 | 1.67 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.49 | 2.01 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 12 | 29 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 19 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (296/384) | 77% (282/367) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (23/56) | 43% (20/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 55% (48/88) | 59% (65/110) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 31% (4/13) | 22% (5/23) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.60 | 0.69 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 27 | 27 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 19 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 59% (17/29) | 67% (10/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 54 | 58 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 32 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.01 | 2.49 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.01 | -0.51 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 22', Samu 🟨,
- 26', 0 - 1, Saviolo N. ⚽,
- 30', 0 - 2, Camara O. ⚽, Samu (A),
- 45+1', 1 - 2, Trezza A. ⚽, Fontan J. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Samu ↓, Mitrovic M. ↑,
- 54', Kuipers B. 🟨,
- 56', 2 - 2, Barbero I. ⚽, Djouahra N. (A),
- 65', Camara O. ↓, Gustavo ↑,
- 73', Beni 🟨,
- 74', 3 - 2, Lee H. ⚽,
- 78', Beni ↓, Arcanjo T. ↑,
- 78', Oliveira N. ↓, Blanco F. ↑,
- 78', Barbero I. ↓, Nandin D. ↑,
- 83', Sousa D. 🟨,
- 84', Lee H. ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
- 84', Trezza A. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
- 86', Mendes J. II. ↓, Lebedenko O. ↑,
- 88', Abascal R. 🟨,
- 89', Fukui T. ↓, Santiago Perez J. ↑,
- 89', Djouahra N. ↓, Puche ↑,
Chances of winning
Arouca
33.5% | Draw
29.3% | Vitoria Guimarães
37.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vitoria Guimarães might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-4.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vitoria Guimarães could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Arouca - Vitoria Guimarães Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.83 ↓
(3.23) |
3.21 ↓
(3.41) |
2.54 ↑
(2.2) |
5.9%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Arouca - Vitoria Guimarães?
Users Predictions:
19 users predict this event. Arouca will win (votes: 1 - 5.3%). Guimarães will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 21.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guimarães: 53.9% – 93.5%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Guimarães (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Vitoria Guimarães will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Guimarães (votes: 5 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 9).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 0.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- Guimarães may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Arouca: Mayulu F.
(Inactive)
Pedro Santos
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Guimarães: Maga
(Yellow Cards)
Rivas Viondi O.
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Arouca: Nandin D.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 24:30. (average 1.2:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Arouca won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:17. (average 1:1.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Vitoria Guimarães?
Arouca has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Vitoria Guimarães won against Arouca?
Vitoria Guimarães has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Arouca - Vitoria Guimarães were as follows:
30.08.2025
Vitoria Guimarães
-
Arouca
1:1
18.01.2025
Vitoria Guimarães
-
Arouca
2:2
12.08.2024
Arouca
-
Vitoria Guimarães
0:1
18.05.2024
Arouca
-
Vitoria Guimarães
1:3
15.01.2024
Vitoria Guimarães
-
Arouca
2:1
Latest results of Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
