Result
0:0
01/02/2026 at 15:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 20
- Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Bulgaria | Ring, Voyo |
 Croatia | SportKlub 2 |
 Cyprus | Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5 |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Israel | Sport 2 |
 Italy | DAZN Italia |
 Kazakhstan | Sport+ |
 Kuwait | KTV Sport |
 Netherlands | Ziggo Sport 3 |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 4 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Russia | TV Start, TV Start Triumph |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 2 |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 1 |
 Slovenia | SportKlub 3 |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Turkey | S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 3 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.42 | 1.89 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 24% | 76% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 23 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 9 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 63% (112/177) | 85% (500/591) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.42 | 1.89 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.01 | 2.33 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 23 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 9 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 14 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 13 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 11 | 54 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 19 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 63% (112/177) | 85% (500/591) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 37% (20/54) | 45% (20/44) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 50% (31/62) | 78% (207/266) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (4/16) | 17% (7/41) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.32 | 1.88 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 35 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 19 | 5 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 72% (18/25) | 71% (10/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 56 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 60 | 14 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.33 | 0.01 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 2.33 | 0.01 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 36', Sithole S. 🟨,
- 42', Maviram E. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 60', Marques C. 🟨,
- 63', Schjelderup A. ↓, Rafa Silva ↑,
- 63', Banjaqui D. ↓, Lopes Cabral S. ↑,
- 64', Maviram E. ↓, Manso T. ↑,
- 66', Hodge J. ↓, Pedro Maranhao ↑,
- 72', Canizares L. 🟨,
- 80', Conceicao R. 🟨,
- 82', Sudakov G. ↓, Bruma ↑,
- 82', Prestianni G. ↓, Cabral A. ↑,
- 90+3', Siebatcheu J. ↓, Afonso J. ↑,
Chances of winning
Tondela
9.8% | Draw
17.8% | Benfica
72.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tondela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+3.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-14.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Benfica, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Tondela - Benfica Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
9.69 ↑
(8.98) |
5.34 ↓
(5.43) |
1.31
(1.31) |
5.5%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Tondela - Benfica?
Users Predictions:
31 users predict this event. Tondela will win (votes: 2 - 6.5%). Benfica will win (votes: 26 - 83.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 9.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benfica: 71% – 96.8%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 7.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH +1.5 - Benfica (1.89) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH +1 - Benfica (1.45) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Benfica will win (17 of 17 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 21 high ROI users predict this event. Benfica (votes: 21 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 0.
- Recent form of Tondela has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Benfica's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Benfica may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Benfica is the clear favorite.
- There will not play in Benfica: Bah A.
(Knee Injury)
Felix N.
(Knee Injury)
Lukebakio D.
(Broken ankle)
Rios R.
(Injury)
Veloso J.
(Shoulder Injury)
- There are questionable in Benfica: Araujo H.
(Muscle Injury)
- In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 14 matches, and goals 8:41. (average 0.5:2.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Tondela won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 3:20. (average 0.4:2.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Tondela won against Benfica?
Tondela has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Benfica won against Tondela?
Benfica has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Tondela - Benfica were as follows:
29.10.2025
Benfica
-
Tondela
3:0
23.08.2025
Benfica
-
Tondela
3:0
Latest results of Tondela
Latest results of Benfica
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
