Result
0:2
23/01/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 2 - Round 20
- Referee: Petit A. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.91 | 1.96 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 56% | 44% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (306/375) | 73% (224/307) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.91 | 1.96 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.17 | 2.32 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (306/375) | 73% (224/307) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 37% (18/49) | 41% (22/54) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (80/118) | 58% (39/67) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (3/20) | 50% (2/4) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.55 | 1.07 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 32 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (8/12) | 75% (18/24) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 58 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 41 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 18 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.32 | 0.17 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.32 | 0.17 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 2', 0 - 1, Mendy A. ⚽, Issoufou Y. (A),
- 25', Tchato E. 🟨,
- 33', Guidi D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 51', Placide J. 🟨,
- 52', Ducrocq T. 🟨,
- 52', Omeragic B. 🟨,
- 54', Savanier T. (Penalty Awarded),
- 55', Aiki A. ↓, Boutrah A. ↑,
- 63', 0 - 2, Issoufou Y. ⚽, Mbuku N. (A),
- 68', Savanier T. ↓, Chennahi T. ↑,
- 73', Sebas J. ↓, Beliandjou R. ↑,
- 73', Bohnert F. ↓, Meynadier T. ↑,
- 73', Janneh J. ↓, Eickmayer J. ↑,
- 76', Ducrocq T. ↓, Vincent C. ↑,
- 76', Roncaglia A. 🟥,
- 85', Issoufou Y. 🟨,
- 86', Issoufou Y. ↓, Sishuba A. ↑,
- 89', Mincarelli L. 🟨,
- 90+2', Mbuku N. ↓, Junior Pereira da Silva E. ↑,
Chances of winning
Bastia
34% | Draw
30.9% | Montpellier
35% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bastia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (-1.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+2.9%)
Bastia - Montpellier Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.76 ↓
(2.89) |
3.02 ↓
(3.15) |
2.67 ↑
(2.46) |
6.9%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Bastia - Montpellier?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Bastia will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Montpellier will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19% – 81%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH 0 - Bastia (1.87) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bastia (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National and 10).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 1.
- Bastia is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- In recent matches, Montpellier has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Recently, Montpellier has had a series of away games.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Bastia: Bathily Y.
(Injury)
Boutrah A.
(Injury)
Djedje D.
(Injury)
Olmeta L.
(Injury)
Parravicini N.
(Hernia)
Zilliox N.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Montpellier: Ngosso G.
(Knee Injury)
Sainte-Luce T.
(Injury)
Sishuba A.
(Inactive)
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:17. (average 1.1:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Bastia won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 1.5:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Bastia won against Montpellier?
Bastia has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Montpellier won against Bastia?
Montpellier has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Bastia - Montpellier were as follows:
20.09.2025
Montpellier
-
Bastia
2:0
Latest results of Montpellier
French Ligue 2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Troyes | 29 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 51:30 | 21 | 58 |
| 2 | St Etienne | 29 | 16 | 6 | 7 | 51:30 | 21 | 54 |
| 3 | Le Mans | 29 | 14 | 11 | 4 | 45:29 | 16 | 53 |
| 4 | Reims | 30 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 43:28 | 15 | 48 |
| 5 | Red Star | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 32:27 | 5 | 48 |
| 6 | Rodez | 29 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 36:34 | 2 | 45 |
| 7 | Montpellier | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 35:27 | 8 | 44 |
| 8 | Annecy | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 36:34 | 2 | 43 |
| 9 | Pau FC | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 41:48 | -7 | 42 |
| 10 | Dunkerque | 29 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 44:35 | 9 | 40 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 39:42 | -3 | 40 |
| 12 | Boulogne | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 30:38 | -8 | 35 |
| 13 | Grenoble | 30 | 6 | 14 | 10 | 29:36 | -7 | 32 |
| 14 | Clermont | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 34:41 | -7 | 30 |
| 15 | Nancy | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 27:43 | -16 | 30 |
| 16 | Laval | 30 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 26:43 | -17 | 25 |
| 17 | Amiens | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 34:52 | -18 | 24 |
| 18 | Bastia | 29 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 16:32 | -16 | 21 |
Promotion ~ Ligue 1
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ National
