Mainz vs Fiorentina – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football UEFA Europa Conference League
Result
2:1
06/11/2025 at 12:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Conference League - League phase - Round 3
  • Referee: Visser L. (Bel)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaNew World Sport 7, New World Sport App
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
asiaAsiabeIN Sports MENA Xtra 4
australiaAustraliaStan Sport
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 5
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Premium 3
bulgariaBulgariaRing, Voyo
canadaCanadaAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
cyprusCyprusCytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
czech-republicCzech-republicSport 3
denmarkDenmarkDisney+
finlandFinlandViaplay
franceFranceCanal+ Live 11
georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 3
germanyGermanyRTL+
greeceGreeceANT 1+, COSMOTE Sport 7
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 1, Now Player
icelandIcelandSÝN Sport 2, Viaplay
indonesiaIndonesiabeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
italyItalyNOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Uno
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 1
mexicoMexicoDisney+
mongoliaMongoliaPremier Sports 5
new-zealandNew-zealandDAZN New Zealand
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
norwayNorwayViaplay
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
polandPolandPolsat Sport Extra 1
portugalPortugalDAZN 4, DAZN / App
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 1
singaporeSingaporebeIN SPORTS MAX
south-americaSouth-americaViX Latin America
spainSpainM+ Liga de Campeones 11
swedenSwedenDisney+
switzerlandSwitzerlandBlue Sport 15, Blue Sport 15
thailandThailandbeIN Connect
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 6, TNT Sports Extra
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaParamount+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamON Plus

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.661.56
Ball Possession
44%56%
Total shots
1312
Shots on target
44
Big Chances
34
Corner Kicks
32
Passes
72% (273/381)78% (381/491)
Yellow Cards
32
Expected Goals (xG)
1.661.56
xG on target (xGOT)
1.221.26
Total shots
1312
Shots on target
44
Shots off target
65
Blocked Shots
33
Shots inside the Box
1112
Shots outside the Box
20
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
34
Corner Kicks
32
Touches in opposition box
2717
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
1219
Passes
72% (273/381)78% (381/491)
Long passes
37% (22/60)44% (21/48)
Passes in final third
56% (79/140)61% (47/77)
Crosses
21% (3/14)43% (3/7)
Expected assists (xA)
0.801.14
Throw-ins
2021
Fouls
1912
Tackles
47% (7/15)67% (8/12)
Duels won
6165
Clearances
1033
Interceptions
1710
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
32
xGOT faced
1.261.22
Goals prevented
0.26-0.78

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 16', 0 - 1, Sohm S. ⚽, Piccoli R. (A),
  • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
  • 46', Mwene P. ↓, Widmer S. ↑,
  • 48', Maloney L. 🟨,
  • 50', Ndour C. 🟨,
  • 59', Ndour C. ↓, Mandragora R. ↑,
  • 59', Piccoli R. ↓, Kean M. ↑,
  • 60', Maloney L. ↓, Sano K. ↑,
  • 60', Sieb A. ↓, Lee Jae-Sung ↑,
  • 62', Nebel P. 🟨,
  • 63', Mari P. 🟨,
  • 65', Nebel P. ↓, Hollerbach B. ↑,
  • 67', Amiri N. 🟨,
  • 68', 1 - 1, Hollerbach B. ⚽, Lee Jae-Sung (A),
  • 69', Mari P. ↓, Comuzzo P. ↑,
  • 81', Amiri N. ↓, Boving W. ↑,
  • 85', Sohm S. ↓, Fagioli N. ↑,
  • 90+5', 2 - 1, Lee Jae-Sung ⚽, Sano K. (A),

Chances of winning


Mainz
43%		Draw
29.2%		Fiorentina
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
38.8% 29.9% 31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39% 29.7% 31.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)
  • Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+3.3%)
    •

    Mainz - Fiorentina Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.23 ↓
    (2.41)    		 3.27 ↑
    (3.13)    		 3.41 ↑
    (2.99)    		 4.8%
    (6.9%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    What is the prediction for Mainz - Fiorentina?
  • Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 17 - 73.9%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 3 - 13%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 56% – 91.8%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Mainz (votes: 2 - 50%). Fiorentina (votes: 2 - 50%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • DC - Fiorentina (1.64) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.25 - Fiorentina (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Mainz (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Fiorentina (votes: 5 - 71.4%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Both teams are currently in poor form.
    • Recently, Mainz has had a series of home games.
    • Mainz could have a small edge in this match.
    • There will not play in Mainz: Bos K. (Inactive) Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Leitsch M. (Illness) Tauer N. (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Fiorentina: Gosens R. (Muscle Injury) Kouame C. (Knee Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury) Sabiri A. (Inactive)
    • Recently, there has been no match between the teams.
    Latest results of Mainz
    01.11.2025 Mainz - Werder Bremen 1:1 ✺
    29.10.2025 Mainz - Stuttgart 0:2 ✺
    26.10.2025 Stuttgart - Mainz 2:1 ✺
    23.10.2025 Mainz - Zrinjski Mostar 1:0 ✺
    18.10.2025 Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen 3:4 ✺
    Latest results of Fiorentina
    02.11.2025 Fiorentina - Lecce 0:1 ✺
    29.10.2025 Inter Milan - Fiorentina 3:0 ✺
    26.10.2025 Fiorentina - Bologna 2:2 ✺
    23.10.2025 Rapid Wien - Fiorentina 0:3 ✺
    19.10.2025 Milan - Fiorentina 2:1 ✺
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1KuPS (21)Lech Poznan (11)0 : 1, 0 : 2
    2Shakhtar Donetsk (6)Bye
    3Noah (19)AZ Alkmaar (14)0 : 4, 1 : 0
    4Sparta Prague (4)Bye
    5Zrinjski (23)Crystal Palace (10)0 : 2, 1 : 1
    6AEK Larnaca (8)Bye
    7Jagiellonia (17)Fiorentina (15)4 : 2, 0 : 3
    8Rakow (2)Bye
    9Shkendija (22)Samsunspor (12)0 : 4, 0 : 1
    10Rayo Vallecano (5)Bye
    11Drita (20)Celje (13)2 : 3, 2 : 3
    12AEK Athens (3)Bye
    13Sigma Olomouc (24)Lausanne (9)2 : 1, 1 : 1
    14Mainz (7)Bye
    15Omonia (18)Rijeka (16)1 : 3, 0 : 1
    16Strasbourg (1)Bye

    1/8-finals
    1Lech Poznan (11)Shakhtar Donetsk (6)
    2AZ Alkmaar (14)Sparta Prague (4)
    3Crystal Palace (10)AEK Larnaca (8)
    4Fiorentina (15)Rakow (2)
    5Samsunspor (12)Rayo Vallecano (5)
    6Celje (13)AEK Athens (3)
    7Sigma Olomouc (24)Mainz (7)
    8Rijeka (16)Strasbourg (1)

    Quarter-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2
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