Atlético Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Spanish LaLiga
Result
3:2
25/04/2026 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • LaLiga - Round 32
  • Referee: Manzano J. (Esp)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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polandPolandEleven Sports 1
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sloveniaSloveniaArena Sport 1
south-africaSouth-africaSuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
south-americaSouth-americaDGO Latin America
spainSpainDAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga 2, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
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uzbekistanUzbekistanSetanta Sports 2
venezuelaVenezuelaDSports 1
vietnamVietnamON Football, ON Plus, SCTV 15, SCTV Online, VTVcab

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
1.910.56
Ball possession
54%46%
Total shots
612
Shots on target
44
Big chances
63
Corner kicks
34
Passes
85% (472/555)82% (379/460)
Expected goals (xG)
1.910.56
xG on target (xGOT)
1.591.15
Total shots
612
Shots on target
44
Shots off target
26
Blocked shots
02
Shots inside the box
68
Shots outside the box
04
Hit the woodwork
00
Headed goals
02
Big chances
63
Corner kicks
34
Touches in opposition box
1922
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
21
Free kicks
128
Passes
85% (472/555)82% (379/460)
Long passes
52% (32/62)35% (17/49)
Passes in final third
61% (62/102)65% (85/131)
Crosses
31% (4/13)23% (6/26)
Expected assists (xA)
0.840.73
Throw ins
2627
Fouls
812
Tackles
61% (14/23)78% (14/18)
Duels won
6043
Clearances
3819
Interceptions
158
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
21
xGOT faced
1.151.59
Goals prevented
-0.85-1.41

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 23', 0 - 1, Paredes A. ⚽, Ruiz de Galarreta I. (A),
  • 2nd Half (3 - 1)
  • 49', 1 - 1, Griezmann A. ⚽,
  • 54', 2 - 1, Sorloth A. ⚽, Baena A. (A),
  • 58', Barrios P. ↓, Cardoso J. ↑,
  • 63', Llorente M. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
  • 63', Griezmann A. ↓, Gonzalez N. ↑,
  • 63', Berchiche Y. ↓, Boiro A. ↑,
  • 63', Gomez U. ↓, Sancet O. ↑,
  • 70', Williams N. ↓, Navarro R. ↑,
  • 70', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
  • 70', Williams I. ↓, Berenguer A. ↑,
  • 72', Koke ↓, Vargas O. ↑,
  • 72', Simeone G. ↓, Le Normand R. ↑,
  • 90+3', 3 - 1, Sorloth A. ⚽, Molina N. (A),
  • 90+7', 3 - 2, Guruzeta G. ⚽, Rego A. (A),

Chances of winning


Atlético Madrid
48.9%		Draw
25.6%		Athletic Bilbao
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
40% 28% 32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6% 28.3% 32.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Atlético Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Madrid's performance.
  • Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletic Bilbao might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-9.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Madrid that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+6.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletic Bilbao could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.96 ↓
    (2.38)    		 3.73 ↑
    (3.39)    		 3.73 ↑
    (2.97)    		 4.6%
    (5.1%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH 0 - Athletic (2.38) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • DNB - Athletic (2.39) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • AH -0.5 - Atlético (2.04) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
    • AH +0.5 - Athletic (3.30) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • AH +1 - Athletic (5.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Athletic (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Atlético Madrid will win (52 of 65 users predict this - 80%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 70.28% – 89.72%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Madrid will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético (votes: 5 - 33.3%). Athletic (votes: 10 - 66.7%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 9).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético won 3.
    • Recent form of Atlético has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Athletic has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Athletic may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Atlético will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Atlético: Almada T. (Red Card) Gimenez J. M. (Injury) Hancko D. (Injury) Lookman A. (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Athletic: Jauregizar M. (Red Card) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Sannadi M. (Coach's decision)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético won 10 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:21. (average 1.1:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Atlético won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:7. (average 1.5:0.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao were as follows:
    06.12.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid 1:0
    01.03.2025 Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao 1:0
    31.08.2024 Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid 0:1
    27.04.2024 Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao 3:1
    29.02.2024 Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid 3:0
    Latest results of Atlético Madrid
    22.04.2026 Elche - Atlético Madrid 3:2 ✺
    18.04.2026 Atlético Madrid - Real Sociedad 2:3 ✺
    14.04.2026 Atlético Madrid - Barcelona 1:2 ✺
    11.04.2026 Sevilla - Atlético Madrid 2:1 ✺
    08.04.2026 Barcelona - Atlético Madrid 0:2 ✺
    Latest results of Athletic Bilbao
    21.04.2026 Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna 1:0 ✺
    12.04.2026 Athletic Bilbao - Villarreal 1:2 ✺
    05.04.2026 Getafe - Athletic Bilbao 2:0 ✺
    22.03.2026 Athletic Bilbao - Betis 2:1 ✺
    14.03.2026 Girona - Athletic Bilbao 3:0 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Barcelona ✔ 34291489:315888
    2Real Madrid ✔ 34245570:313977
    3Villarreal ✔ 34215864:392568
    4Atl. Madrid34196958:372163
    5Betis341314752:411153
    6Celta Vigo3412111148:44447
    7Getafe341351628:36-844
    8Ath Bilbao341351640:50-1044
    9Real Sociedad3311101252:52043
    10Osasuna341191440:42-242
    11Rayo Vallecano3410121235:41-642
    12Valencia341091537:50-1339
    13Espanyol341091537:51-1439
    14Elche349111445:53-838
    15Mallorca341081642:51-938
    16Girona349111436:51-1538
    17Alaves34991640:53-1336
    18Sevilla33971740:55-1534
    19Levante34891738:55-1733
    20Oviedo346101826:54-2828

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Relegation ~ LaLiga2

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Barcelona is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )
    Real Madrid is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )
    Villarreal is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )
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