Olympique Marseille vs Ajax – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

30/09/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Stade Vélodrome (Marseille).

Champions League - League phase - Round 2
Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)
Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 7, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 7
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 6, Pickx+ Sports 6, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Brazil	HBO Max
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 1
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	SÝN Sport 5
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Israel	5 STARS Israel
Italy	Sky Sport 257
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	TV2 Play
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+, Fox Sports 3
Philippines	beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 1
Russia	Okko Sport
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Voyo
South-america	ESPN 6 South, ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 8
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 6, TNT Sports Extra
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.15	0.72
Ball Possession
48%	52%
Total shots
9	13
Shots on target
6	2
Big Chances
3	1
Corner Kicks
0	7
Passes
87% (417/480)	88% (455/518)
Yellow Cards
2	3
Expected Goals (xG)
1.15	0.72
xG on target (xGOT)
1.92	0.75
Total shots
9	13
Shots on target
6	2
Shots off target
2	5
Blocked Shots
1	6
Shots inside the Box
5	7
Shots outside the Box
4	6
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
3	1
Corner Kicks
0	7
Touches in opposition box
9	19
Accurate through passes
2	0
Offsides
0	2
Free Kicks
12	18
Passes
87% (417/480)	88% (455/518)
Long passes
41% (15/37)	60% (29/48)
Passes in final third
69% (35/51)	70% (80/114)
Crosses
0% (0/4)	29% (4/14)
Expected assists (xA)
0.75	0.77
Throw-ins
12	16
Fouls
18	12
Tackles
64% (7/11)	50% (4/8)
Duels won
32	38
Clearances
22	11
Interceptions
8	12
Errors leading to shot
1	2
Errors leading to goal
0	2
Goalkeeper Saves
2	2
xGOT faced
0.75	1.92
Goals prevented
0.75	-2.08

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (3 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Paixao I. ⚽, Aubameyang P. (A),
12', 2 - 0, Paixao I. ⚽, Vermeeren A. (A),
23', Regeer Y. ↓, Mokio J. ↑,
26', 3 - 0, Greenwood M. ⚽, Aubameyang P. (A),
34', Rosa L. 🟨,
36', Medina F. ↓, Egan-Riley C. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Nadir B. ↓, Weah T. ↑,
46', Berghuis S. ↓, Edvardsen O. ↑,
52', 4 - 0, Aubameyang P. ⚽, Paixao I. (A),
55', Wijndal O. ↓, Gaaei A. ↑,
55', Baas Y. ↓, Sutalo J. ↑,
62', Paixao I. ↓, Gomes A. ↑,
62', O'Riley M. ↓, Hojbjerg P. ↑,
66', Itakura K. 🟨,
76', Gaaei A. 🟨,
79', Hojbjerg P. 🟨,
82', Vermeeren A. ↓, Murillo M. ↑,
84', Godts M. ↓, Moro R. ↑,
85', Aguerd N. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Olympique Marseille
79.2%

Draw
15.7%

Ajax
5.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.5%

21.6%

17.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.8%

21.4%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Olympique Marseille's performance.

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ajax might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (-19.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Olympique Marseille that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+13%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ajax could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Olympique Marseille - Ajax Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.58)	8.08 ↑ (4.44)	26.69 ↑ (5.34)	-13.6% (4.4%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

What is the prediction for Olympique Marseille - Ajax?

Users Predictions: 83 users predict this event. Marseille will win (votes: 72 - 86.7%). Ajax will win (votes: 6 - 7.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 79.4% – 94%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%).

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Olympique Marseille will win (17 of 20 users predict this - 85%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.

Preview Facts

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
Marseille may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Marseille is the clear favorite.
There will not play in Marseille: Blanco R. (Inactive) Kondogbia G. (Calf Injury) Lirola P. (Inactive) Traore H. J. (Thigh Injury)
There will not play in Ajax: Dolberg K. (Abdominal strain) McConnell J. (Health problems) Weghorst W. (Knock) van den Boomen B. (Back Injury)
There are questionable in Marseille: Bakola D. (Inactive) Balerdi L. (Injury)
In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 3:2.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Marseille won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 3:2.5).

How many head-to-head matches has Olympique Marseille won against Ajax?

Olympique Marseille has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Ajax won against Olympique Marseille?

Ajax has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Olympique Marseille - Ajax were as follows:

30.11.2023 Olympique Marseille - Ajax 4:3

21.09.2023 Ajax - Olympique Marseille 3:3

Latest results of Olympique Marseille

26.09.2025 Strasbourg - Olympique Marseille 1:2 ✺

22.09.2025 Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain 1:0 ✺

16.09.2025 Real Madrid - Olympique Marseille 2:1 ✺

12.09.2025 Olympique Marseille - Lorient 4:0 ✺

31.08.2025 Lyon - Olympique Marseille 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Ajax

27.09.2025 Ajax - NAC Breda 2:1 ✺

21.09.2025 PSV Eindhoven - Ajax 2:2 ✺

17.09.2025 Ajax - Inter Milan 0:2 ✺

13.09.2025 Ajax - Zwolle 3:1 ✺

30.08.2025 Volendam - Ajax 1:1 ✺

UEFA Champions League Table

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	8:2	6	6
2	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	7:1	6	6
3	PSG	2	2	0	0	6:1	5	6
4	Inter	2	2	0	0	5:0	5	6
5	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	4:0	4	6
6	Qarabag	2	2	0	0	5:2	3	6
7	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	8:5	3	4
8	Manchester City	2	1	1	0	4:2	2	4
9	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	3:2	1	4
10	Atl. Madrid	2	1	0	1	7:4	3	3
11	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	5:2	3	3
12	Marseille	2	1	0	1	5:2	3	3
13	Club Brugge KV	2	1	0	1	5:3	2	3
14	Sporting CP	2	1	0	1	5:3	2	3
15	Eintracht Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	6:6	0	3
16	Barcelona	2	1	0	1	3:3	0	3
17	Liverpool	2	1	0	1	3:3	0	3
18	Chelsea	2	1	0	1	2:3	-1	3
19	Napoli	2	1	0	1	2:3	-1	3
20	Royale Union SG	2	1	0	1	3:5	-2	3
21	Galatasaray	2	1	0	1	2:5	-3	3
22	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	2:5	-3	3
23	Juventus	2	0	2	0	6:6	0	2
24	Bodo/Glimt	2	0	2	0	4:4	0	2
25	Bayer Leverkusen	2	0	2	0	3:3	0	2
26	Villarreal	2	0	1	1	2:3	-1	1
27	PSV	2	0	1	1	2:4	-2	1
28	FC Copenhagen	2	0	1	1	2:4	-2	1
29	Olympiacos Piraeus	2	0	1	1	0:2	-2	1
30	Monaco	2	0	1	1	3:6	-3	1
31	Slavia Prague	2	0	1	1	2:5	-3	1
32	Pafos	2	0	1	1	1:5	-4	1
33	Benfica	2	0	0	2	2:4	-2	0
34	Ath Bilbao	2	0	0	2	1:6	-5	0
35	Ajax	2	0	0	2	0:6	-6	0
36	Kairat Almaty	2	0	0	2	1:9	-8	0

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