Union Berlin vs Ajax – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

23/02/2023 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin).

EUROPE: EUROPA LEAGUE - PLAY OFFS - 1/16-FINALS
Referee: Del Cerro C. (Esp)

Chances of winning

Union Berlin
41.4%

Draw
29.9%

Ajax
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

28.9%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

28.1%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Union Berlin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Union Berlin - Ajax Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.42)	3.2 ↓ (3.32)	3.36 ↑ (3.05)	4.2% (4.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Union Berlin - Ajax?

Users Predictions: 80 users predict this event. Union Berlin will win (votes: 49 - 61.3%). Ajax will win (votes: 18 - 22.5%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 16.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Union Berlin: 50.6% – 72%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

Union Berlin was already of knockout phase, has a chance of round of 16 (39%), has a chance of qtrs (20%), has a small chance of semis (9%), has a very small chance of final (4%), has a very small chance of win league (2%), has currently - 12, has not chance of 1st, was already of 2nd, has not chance of 3rd.
Ajax was already of knockout phase, has a good chance of round of 16 (61%), has a chance of qtrs (42%), has a chance of semis (26%), has a small chance of final (15%), has a small chance of win league (8%), has currently - , has not chance of 1st, has not chance of 2nd, has not chance of 3rd.
This event has big quality 75, big importance 80, big match rating 77. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Union Berlin is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Ajax in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
Ajax could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
Union Berlin will have a poor advantage in this game.
There will not play in Union Berlin: Schafer A. (Foot Injury)
There are questionable in Union Berlin: Busk J. (Illness) Leite D. (Illness)
There are questionable in Ajax: Kaplan A. (Knee Injury) Sanchez J. (Knock)
Last 2 head-to-head matches Union Berlin won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

How many head-to-head matches has Union Berlin won against Ajax?

Union Berlin has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Ajax won against Union Berlin?

Ajax has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Union Berlin - Ajax were as follows:

16.02.2023 Ajax - Union Berlin 0:0

Latest results of Union Berlin

19.02.2023 Union Berlin - Schalke 04 0:0 ✺

16.02.2023 Ajax - Union Berlin 0:0 ✺

11.02.2023 RB Leipzig - Union Berlin 1:2 ✺

04.02.2023 Union Berlin - Mainz 2:1 ✺

31.01.2023 Union Berlin - Wolfsburg 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Ajax

19.02.2023 Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam 4:0 ✺

16.02.2023 Ajax - Union Berlin 0:0 ✺

12.02.2023 Ajax - Waalwijk 3:1 ✺

09.02.2023 Twente - Ajax 0:1 ✺

05.02.2023 Cambuur - Ajax 0:5 ✺

Draw

2025/26

1/8-finals

1	Hamrun	Bye
4	Bye	Maccabi Tel Aviv
8	Bye	Dyn. Kyiv
9	Shkendija	Bye
16	Bye	Ludogorets
17	Slovan Bratislava	Bye
24	Bye	Young Boys
25	Malmo FF	Bye
32	Bye	Sigma Olomouc
33	Panathinaikos	Bye
35	Besiktas	Bye
36	Shakhtar Donetsk	Ilves	0 : 0, 6 : 0
40	Bye	Samsunspor
41	Aberdeen	Bye
45	FCSB	Bye
48	Bye	Drita
49	Lech Poznan	Bye
56	Bye	Genk
57	Fredrikstad	Bye
59	Midtjylland	Bye
60	Bye	Hibernian
61	RFS	Bye
64	Bye	KuPS
65	Lincoln Red Imps	Bye
68	Bye	Noah
69	Lugano	Bye
70	Paks	CFR Cluj	0 : 3, 0 : 0
71	Levski Sofia	H. Beer Sheva	2 : 1, 0 : 0
72	Bye	Braga
73	Zrinjski	Bye
76	Bye	Breidablik
77	Servette	Bye
79	Sheriff Tiraspol	Prishtina	1 : 2, 4 : 0
80	Bye	Utrecht
81	Anderlecht	Bye
82	Trnava	Hacken	2 : 2, 0 : 1
84	Bye	Brann
85	Sabah Baku	Celje	3 : 3, 2 : 3
86	AEK Larnaca	Partizan	2 : 2, 1 : 0
87	Ostrava	Bye
88	Legia	Aktobe	1 : 0, 1 : 0
89	Rijeka	Bye
92	Bye	Shelbourne
93	PAOK	Bye
96	Bye	Wolfsberger AC

Quarter-finals

1	Hamrun	Bye
2	Bye	Maccabi Tel Aviv
4	Bye	Dyn. Kyiv
5	Shkendija	Bye
8	Bye	Ludogorets
9	Slovan Bratislava	Bye
12	Bye	Young Boys
13	Malmo FF	Bye
16	Bye	Sigma Olomouc
17	Panathinaikos	Bye
18	Besiktas	Shakhtar Donetsk	0 : 2, 2 : 4
20	Bye	Samsunspor
21	Aberdeen	Bye
23	FCSB	Bye
24	Bye	Drita
25	Lech Poznan	Bye
28	Bye	Genk
29	Fredrikstad	Bye
30	Midtjylland	Hibernian	2 : 1, 1 : 1
31	RFS	Bye
32	Bye	KuPS
33	Lincoln Red Imps	Bye
34	Bye	Noah
35	Lugano	CFR Cluj	0 : 1, 0 : 0
36	Levski Sofia	Braga	0 : 1, 0 : 0
37	Zrinjski	Bye
38	Bye	Breidablik
39	Servette	Bye
40	Sheriff Tiraspol	Utrecht	1 : 4, 1 : 3
41	Anderlecht	Hacken	1 : 3, 1 : 0
42	Bye	Brann
43	Celje	AEK Larnaca	1 : 2, 1 : 1
44	Ostrava	Legia	1 : 2, 2 : 2
45	Rijeka	Bye
46	Bye	Shelbourne
47	PAOK	Bye
48	Bye	Wolfsberger AC

Semi-finals

1	Hamrun	Maccabi Tel Aviv	1 : 3, 1 : 2
2	Bye	Dyn. Kyiv
3	Shkendija	Bye
4	Bye	Ludogorets
5	Slovan Bratislava	Bye
6	Bye	Young Boys
7	Malmo FF	Bye
8	Bye	Sigma Olomouc
9	Panathinaikos	Shakhtar Donetsk	1 : 0, 0 : 0
10	Bye	Samsunspor
11	Aberdeen	Bye
12	FCSB	Drita	3 : 1, 3 : 2
13	Lech Poznan	Bye
14	Bye	Genk
15	Fredrikstad	Midtjylland	0 : 2, 1 : 3
16	RFS	KuPS	0 : 1, 1 : 2
17	Lincoln Red Imps	Noah	1 : 0, 1 : 1
18	CFR Cluj	Braga	0 : 2, 1 : 2
19	Zrinjski	Breidablik	2 : 1, 1 : 1
20	Servette	Utrecht	1 : 2, 1 : 3
21	Hacken	Brann	1 : 0, 0 : 2
22	AEK Larnaca	Legia	1 : 2, 4 : 1
23	Rijeka	Shelbourne	3 : 1, 1 : 2
24	PAOK	Wolfsberger AC	1 : 0, 0 : 0

Final

1	Maccabi Tel Aviv	Dyn. Kyiv	3 : 1
2	Shkendija	Ludogorets	2 : 1
3	Slovan Bratislava	Young Boys	0 : 1
4	Malmo FF	Sigma Olomouc	3 : 0
5	Panathinaikos	Samsunspor	2 : 1
6	Aberdeen	FCSB	2 : 2
7	Lech Poznan	Genk	1 : 5
8	Midtjylland	KuPS	4 : 0
9	Lincoln Red Imps	Braga	0 : 4
10	Zrinjski	Utrecht	0 : 2
11	Brann	AEK Larnaca	2 : 1
12	Rijeka	PAOK	1 : 0