Almería vs Castellón – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

26/10/2025 at 13:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

UD Almería Stadium (Almería).

LaLiga2 - Round 11
Referee: Sanchez R. (Esp)
Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	Disney+
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion 2, Movistar Plus+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.80	0.65
Ball Possession
48%	52%
Total shots
15	9
Shots on target
4	4
Big Chances
1	1
Corner Kicks
6	3
Passes
81% (311/384)	81% (338/415)
Yellow Cards
1	2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.80	0.65
xG on target (xGOT)
0.23	0.37
Total shots
15	9
Shots on target
4	4
Shots off target
8	5
Blocked Shots
3	0
Shots inside the Box
7	5
Shots outside the Box
8	4
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
1	1
Corner Kicks
6	3
Touches in opposition box
22	20
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
4	2
Free Kicks
11	11
Passes
81% (311/384)	81% (338/415)
Long passes
43% (20/46)	42% (21/50)
Passes in final third
61% (62/101)	63% (48/76)
Crosses
26% (5/19)	36% (4/11)
Expected assists (xA)
0.67	0.43
Throw-ins
20	19
Fouls
11	11
Tackles
70% (16/23)	62% (13/21)
Duels won
58	52
Clearances
30	22
Interceptions
5	13
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
4	3
xGOT faced
0.37	0.23
Goals prevented
0.37	-0.77

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Lopy D. 🟨,
43', Calatrava A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mabil A. ↓, Mamah K. ↑,
58', Melamed N. ↓, Embarba A. ↑,
59', Soko P. ↓, Puigmal A. ↑,
60', 1 - 0, Chirino D. ⚽, Arribas S. (A),
65', Gerenabarrena B. ↓, Suero I. ↑,
71', Calatrava A. ↓, De Nipoti T. ↑,
71', Barri ↓, Doue M. ↑,
71', Leo Baptistao ↓, Thalys ↑,
81', Lopy D. ↓, Clua S. ↑,
81', Arribas S. ↓, Gui Guedes ↑,
81', Ruiz S. ↓, Markanich N. ↑,
90', Brignani F. 🟨,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/yy43fndr

Chances of winning

Almería
48.5%

Draw
25.5%

Castellón
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.2%

24.7%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

24.1%

22.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Castellón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castellón than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Almería - Castellón Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.81)	3.72 ↓ (3.82)	3.62 ↓ (4.1)	5.7% (5.8%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

What is the prediction for Almería - Castellón?

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Almería will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%). Castellón will win (votes: 3 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Almería: 58% – 94.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Almería will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.

Preview Facts

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 7 and 16).
At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.
Almería may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Almería could have a small edge in this match.
There will not play in Almería: Clua S. (Injury) Horta A. (Injury)
There will not play in Castellón: Aurelio D. (Knee Injury) Gil O. (Injury) Jimenez A. (Red Card) Ronaldo (Red Card)
There are questionable in Almería: Baba I. (Injury) Chumi (Injury)
There are questionable in Castellón: Sienra A. (Injury)
In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Almería won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 2:2.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Almería won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:6. (average 2.5:3).

How many head-to-head matches has Almería won against Castellón?

Almería has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Castellón won against Almería?

Castellón has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Almería - Castellón were as follows:

18.04.2025 Castellón - Almería 4:1

16.09.2024 Almería - Castellón 2:5

Latest results of Almería

19.10.2025 Córdoba - Almería 1:1 ✺

11.10.2025 Almería - Zaragoza 4:2 ✺

04.10.2025 Deportivo La Coruña - Almería 1:1 ✺

27.09.2025 Las Palmas - Almería 0:1 ✺

20.09.2025 Almería - Sporting de Gijón 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Castellón

19.10.2025 Castellón - Albacete Balompié 0:1 ✺

12.10.2025 Eibar - Castellón 0:0 ✺

05.10.2025 Castellón - Sporting de Gijón 3:1 ✺

29.09.2025 Leganés - Castellón 0:1 ✺

20.09.2025 Leonesa - Castellón 1:3 ✺

Spanish LaLiga2 Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Racing Santander	28	16	5	7	56:36	20	53
2	Castellon	28	14	7	7	46:29	17	49
3	Almeria	28	14	7	7	53:40	13	49
4	Dep. La Coruna	28	14	7	7	44:31	13	49
5	Malaga	28	14	5	9	41:31	10	47
6	Las Palmas	28	11	12	5	34:22	12	45
7	Ceuta	28	13	5	10	36:39	-3	44
8	Burgos CF	28	12	7	9	30:26	4	43
9	Gijon	28	12	6	10	38:36	2	42
10	Cordoba	28	11	8	9	38:37	1	41
11	Eibar	28	10	8	10	31:30	1	38
12	Andorra	28	9	8	11	35:40	-5	35
13	Albacete	28	9	8	11	33:39	-6	35
14	Cadiz CF	28	9	8	11	29:35	-6	35
15	Leganes	28	8	10	10	29:28	1	34
16	Real Sociedad B	28	9	7	12	38:39	-1	34
17	Granada CF	28	7	11	10	32:33	-1	32
18	Valladolid	28	8	8	12	29:38	-9	32
19	Huesca	28	8	6	14	26:37	-11	30
20	Cultural Leonesa	28	7	6	15	27:44	-17	27
21	Mirandes	28	6	6	16	28:45	-17	24
22	Zaragoza	28	5	9	14	23:41	-18	24

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