Result
1:1
13/02/2026 at 15:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 22
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.55 | 0.73 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 60% | 40% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (402/466) | 81% (266/330) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.55 | 0.73 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.82 | 1.16 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 51 | 24 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (402/466) | 81% (266/330) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 67% (31/46) | 29% (15/52) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 77% (111/145) | 63% (65/103) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 35% (17/48) | 25% (4/16) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.80 | 0.68 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 21 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 68% (15/22) | 74% (14/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 58 | 48 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 47 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.16 | 1.82 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.16 | 0.82 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 4', 0 - 1, Marezi ⚽, Touaizi N. (A),
- 43', Kimpioka B. 🟨,
- 44', Touaizi N. 🟨,
- 45+7', Meupiyou B. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Sithole S. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
- 60', Aiko M. 🟨,
- 62', Hodge J. ↓, Felix H. ↑,
- 62', Bebeto ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 67', Meupiyou B. 🟨,
- 70', Gomes A. 🟨,
- 71', Chiquinho ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
- 71', Figueiredo ↓, Gui D. ↑,
- 71', Marezi ↓, Clairicia M. ↑,
- 76', Marques C. ↓, van der Heide A. ↑,
- 80', 1 - 1, Silva J. ⚽, Medina B. (A),
- 82', Chissumba ↓, Baseya S. ↑,
- 85', Rhaldney ↓, Nuozzi C. ↑,
- 87', Cicero 🟨,
- 87', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Manso T. ↑,
- 90+8', Conceicao R. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Tondela
37% | Draw
31.3% | Alverca
31.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-1.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (+3%)
Tondela - Alverca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.57 ↓
(2.74) |
3.02 ↓
(3.26) |
2.98 ↑
(2.79) |
5.6%
(3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Tondela - Alverca?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Tondela will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Alverca will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Alverca (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Alverca (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Alverca (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 10).
- Tondela is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- In recent matches, Alverca has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Alverca: Abdulai S.
(Injury)
Diarra S.
(Muscle Injury)
Leo Chu
(Injury)
Lincoln
(Yellow Cards)
Mendes T.
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Tondela: Maviram E.
(Injury)
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).
- Including home match between the teams, Tondela won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Tondela won against Alverca?
Tondela has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Alverca won against Tondela?
Alverca has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Tondela - Alverca were as follows:
12.09.2025
Alverca
-
Tondela
1:0
11.05.2025
Tondela
-
Alverca
1:2
12.01.2025
Alverca
-
Tondela
1:1
Latest results of Tondela
Latest results of Alverca
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
