Tondela vs Alverca – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

13/02/2026 at 15:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Estádio João Cardoso (Tondela).

Liga Portugal - Round 22
Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
1.55	0.73
Ball possession
60%	40%
Total shots
18	10
Shots on target
4	4
Big chances
2	1
Corner kicks
11	5
Passes
86% (402/466)	81% (266/330)
Yellow cards
4	4
Red cards
0	1
Expected goals (xG)
1.55	0.73
xG on target (xGOT)
1.82	1.16
Total shots
18	10
Shots on target
4	4
Shots off target
9	1
Blocked shots
5	5
Shots inside the box
15	10
Shots outside the box
3	0
Hit the woodwork
0	0
Headed goals
1	1
Big chances
2	1
Corner kicks
11	5
Touches in opposition box
51	24
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	0
Free kicks
10	14
Passes
86% (402/466)	81% (266/330)
Long passes
67% (31/46)	29% (15/52)
Passes in final third
77% (111/145)	63% (65/103)
Crosses
35% (17/48)	25% (4/16)
Expected assists (xA)
1.80	0.68
Throw ins
21	18
Fouls
14	10
Tackles
68% (15/22)	74% (14/19)
Duels won
58	48
Clearances
18	47
Interceptions
13	10
Errors leading to shot
1	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
3	3
xGOT faced
1.16	1.82
Goals prevented
0.16	0.82

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Marezi ⚽, Touaizi N. (A),
43', Kimpioka B. 🟨,
44', Touaizi N. 🟨,
45+7', Meupiyou B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Sithole S. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
60', Aiko M. 🟨,
62', Hodge J. ↓, Felix H. ↑,
62', Bebeto ↓, Silva J. ↑,
67', Meupiyou B. 🟨,
70', Gomes A. 🟨,
71', Chiquinho ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
71', Figueiredo ↓, Gui D. ↑,
71', Marezi ↓, Clairicia M. ↑,
76', Marques C. ↓, van der Heide A. ↑,
80', 1 - 1, Silva J. ⚽, Medina B. (A),
82', Chissumba ↓, Baseya S. ↑,
85', Rhaldney ↓, Nuozzi C. ↑,
87', Cicero 🟨,
87', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Manso T. ↑,
90+8', Conceicao R. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Tondela
37%

Draw
31.3%

Alverca
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

29.8%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

29.9%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (+3%)

Tondela - Alverca Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↓ (2.74)	3.02 ↓ (3.26)	2.98 ↑ (2.79)	5.6% (3%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Tondela - Alverca?

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Tondela will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Alverca will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Alverca (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Alverca (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Alverca (votes: 2 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 10).
Tondela is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).
In recent matches, Alverca has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
There will not play in Alverca: Abdulai S. (Injury) Diarra S. (Muscle Injury) Leo Chu (Injury) Lincoln (Yellow Cards) Mendes T. (Muscle Injury)
There are questionable in Tondela: Maviram E. (Injury)
In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).
Including home match between the teams, Tondela won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

How many head-to-head matches has Tondela won against Alverca?

Tondela has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Alverca won against Tondela?

Alverca has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Tondela - Alverca were as follows:

12.09.2025 Alverca - Tondela 1:0

11.05.2025 Tondela - Alverca 1:2

12.01.2025 Alverca - Tondela 1:1

Latest results of Tondela

07.02.2026 Estoril Praia - Tondela 2:2 ✺

01.02.2026 Tondela - Benfica 0:0 ✺

25.01.2026 Famalicão - Tondela 3:0 ✺

18.01.2026 Tondela - Braga 0:1 ✺

11.01.2026 Moreirense - Tondela 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Alverca

08.02.2026 Benfica - Alverca 2:1 ✺

31.01.2026 Alverca - Estrela da Amadora 1:1 ✺

25.01.2026 Braga - Alverca 5:0 ✺

17.01.2026 Alverca - Moreirense 2:1 ✺

04.01.2026 Alverca - Famalicão 1:0 ✺

Liga Portugal Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	FC Porto	27	23	3	1	54:11	43	72
2	Sporting CP	26	20	5	1	68:15	53	65
3	Benfica	27	19	8	0	58:17	41	65
4	Braga	26	13	7	6	53:27	26	46
5	Famalicao	27	13	6	8	33:22	11	45
6	Gil Vicente	27	11	9	7	39:28	11	42
7	Estoril	27	10	7	10	48:44	4	37
8	Moreirense	27	10	5	12	31:39	-8	35
9	Vitoria Guimaraes	27	9	5	13	29:42	-13	32
10	Rio Ave	27	7	9	11	28:46	-18	30
11	Alverca	27	7	8	12	27:45	-18	29
12	Arouca	27	8	5	14	34:55	-21	29
13	Santa Clara	27	7	7	13	24:31	-7	28
14	Estrela	27	6	10	11	33:45	-12	28
15	Casa Pia	26	5	9	12	26:48	-22	24
16	Nacional	27	5	7	15	29:39	-10	22
17	Tondela	26	4	8	14	19:39	-20	20
18	AFS	27	1	8	18	18:58	-40	11

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Liga Portugal (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2