Result
3:1
09/11/2025 at 14:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Ekstraklasa - Round 15
- Referee: Gryckiewicz P. (Pol)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 5 |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Poland | CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Poland, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV |
 Ukraine | Sport 1 |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.05 | 1.94 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 44% | 56% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (304/353) | 85% (384/454) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.05 | 1.94 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.95 | 2.53 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 14 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 32 | 29 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 19 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (304/353) | 85% (384/454) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 57% (26/46) | 52% (25/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (87/116) | 73% (77/105) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 50% (10/20) | 17% (2/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.02 | 2.11 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 10 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 19 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 71% (12/17) | 50% (8/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 45 | 49 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 26 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.53 | 2.95 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.53 | -0.05 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 15', 0 - 1, Rodriguez P. ⚽, Lisman K. (A),
- 26', Kerk S. 🟨,
- 29', Gumny R. 🟨,
- 30', Kocyla D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (3 - 0)
- 52', Ouma T. 🟨,
- 55', Ouma T. 🟨,
- 57', Lisman K. ↓, Jagiello F. ↑,
- 64', 1 - 1, Espiau Hernandez E. D. ⚽, Kerk S. (A),
- 71', Espiau Hernandez E. D. 🟨,
- 71', Kocyla D. ↓, Szysz P. ↑,
- 71', Rusyn N. ↓, Gaprindashvili T. ↑,
- 72', 2 - 1, Espiau Hernandez E. D. ⚽, Gaprindashvili T. (A),
- 75', Gumny R. ↓, Pereira J. ↑,
- 75', Rodriguez P. ↓, Ismaheel T. ↑,
- 75', Palma L. ↓, Bengtsson L. ↑,
- 78', 3 - 1, Espiau Hernandez E. D. ⚽, Jakubczyk K. (A),
- 79', Espiau Hernandez E. D. ↓, Sidibe A. ↑,
- 82', Agnero Y. ↓, Jakobczyk K. ↑,
- 87', Jakubczyk K. ↓, Sobczak S. ↑,
Chances of winning
Arka Gdynia
26.2% | Draw
26.8% | Lech Poznań
47% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arka Gdynia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (-1.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+1.3%)
Arka Gdynia - Lech Poznań Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.67 ↑
(3.6) |
3.56 ↑
(3.23) |
2 ↑
(1.88) |
5.4%
(11.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Arka Gdynia - Lech Poznań?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Arka will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Lech will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lech: 19.1% – 73.3%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Lech (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 7).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arka won 1.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Arka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Lech has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Lech is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Lech: Douglas A.
(Inactive)
Gholizadeh A.
(Thigh Injury)
Hakans D.
(Ankle Injury)
Murawski R.
(Surgery)
Walemark P.
(Surgery)
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Arka won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 0.6:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Arka won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.4:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Arka Gdynia won against Lech Poznań?
Arka Gdynia has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lech Poznań won against Arka Gdynia?
Lech Poznań has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Arka Gdynia - Lech Poznań were as follows:
07.12.2023
Arka Gdynia
-
Lech Poznań
0:1
Latest results of Arka Gdynia
Latest results of Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 46:37 | 9 | 44 |
| 2 | Zaglebie | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 40:30 | 10 | 41 |
| 3 | Jagiellonia | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 43:34 | 9 | 41 |
| 4 | Gornik Zabrze | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 36:32 | 4 | 39 |
| 5 | Wisla Plock | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 28:25 | 3 | 39 |
| 6 | Rakow | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 35:33 | 2 | 38 |
| 7 | Motor Lublin | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 35:38 | -3 | 37 |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 33:29 | 4 | 36 |
| 9 | Cracovia | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 31:28 | 3 | 36 |
| 10 | GKS Katowice | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 35:35 | 0 | 36 |
| 11 | Piast Gliwice | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 32:33 | -1 | 35 |
| 12 | Lechia Gdansk | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 51:48 | 3 | 34 |
| 13 | Pogon Szczecin | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 36:40 | -4 | 34 |
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 42:40 | 2 | 33 |
| 15 | Legia | 26 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 30:31 | -1 | 30 |
| 16 | Arka Gdynia | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 25:44 | -19 | 30 |
| 17 | Widzew Lodz | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 31:34 | -3 | 29 |
| 18 | Termalica B-B | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 30:48 | -18 | 22 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Division 1
