Result
4:3
07/11/2025 at 15:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 11
- Referee: Pereira C. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 7 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 South-america | Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.71 | 0.78 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (319/397) | 81% (382/474) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.71 | 0.78 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.08 | 0.41 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 13 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 34 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (319/397) | 81% (382/474) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 44% (27/61) | 38% (28/73) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (88/127) | 57% (46/80) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (7/30) | 10% (1/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.26 | 0.22 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 22 | 26 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 57% (8/14) | 54% (7/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 39 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 27 | 35 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.41 | 2.08 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -2.59 | -0.92 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 2)
- 5', 0 - 1, Fukui T. ⚽,
- 10', 1 - 1, Fukui T. (Own goal),
- 17', Lominadze N. 🟨,
- 31', 1 - 2, Djouahra N. ⚽, Puche (A),
- 43', 2 - 2, Boma K. ⚽, Holsgrove J. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Carvalho P. ↓, Peixinho ↑,
- 46', Lominadze N. ↓, Ferro ↑,
- 46', Barbero I. ↓, Trezza A. ↑,
- 51', 3 - 2, Holsgrove J. ⚽, Begraoui Y. (A),
- 65', Costa G. ↓, Parente T. ↑,
- 71', Tiago Esgaio ↓, Nandin D. ↑,
- 71', Simao D. ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
- 71', Lacximicant A. ↓, Brito T. ↑,
- 71', Puche ↓, Alex Pinto ↑,
- 74', 3 - 3, Djouahra N. ⚽, Sola A. (A),
- 77', Peixinho ↓, Guitane R. ↑,
- 84', Lee H. ↓, Fayed O. ↑,
- 86', 4 - 3, Carvalho J. ⚽, Guitane R. (A),
- 90', Fayed O. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Estoril Praia
47.8% | Draw
26.6% | Arouca
25.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Estoril Praia - Arouca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.01 ↓
(2.11) |
3.56 ↓
(3.73) |
3.71 ↑
(3.46) |
4.9%
(3.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Estoril Praia - Arouca?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Estoril (votes: 2 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Estoril Praia will win
(22 of 23 users predict this - 95.65%).
Confidence interval (95%): 87.31% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 and 15).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 2.
- In recent matches, Estoril has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Arouca is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Estoril is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Estoril: Xeka
(Injury)
- There will not play in Arouca: Flores M.
(Knee Injury)
Rocha M.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Estoril: Sanchez R.
(Injury)
Tsoungui A.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Arouca: Nandin D.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 28:25. (average 1.4:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Estoril won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:10. (average 1.7:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Estoril Praia won against Arouca?
Estoril Praia has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Estoril Praia?
Arouca has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Estoril Praia - Arouca were as follows:
26.10.2024
Estoril Praia
-
Arouca
4:1
20.01.2024
Estoril Praia
-
Arouca
1:2
13.08.2023
Arouca
-
Estoril Praia
4:3
15.05.2023
Estoril Praia
-
Arouca
2:0
07.01.2023
Arouca
-
Estoril Praia
2:0
Latest results of Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 24:3 | 21 | 31 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 27:6 | 21 | 28 |
| 3 | Benfica | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 23:6 | 17 | 25 |
| 4 | Gil Vicente | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16:5 | 11 | 23 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 11:5 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Moreirense | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 16:15 | 1 | 18 |
| 7 | Braga | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19:11 | 8 | 16 |
| 8 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10:17 | -7 | 14 |
| 9 | Estoril | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 19:17 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Nacional | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11:15 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Rio Ave | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 14:19 | -5 | 12 |
| 12 | Estrela | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 13:14 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9:13 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Alverca | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12:19 | -7 | 11 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13:24 | -11 | 9 |
| 16 | Arouca | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13:30 | -17 | 9 |
| 17 | Tondela | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6:20 | -14 | 6 |
| 18 | AFS | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8:25 | -17 | 3 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
