Result
0:0
01/11/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 16
- Referee: Gomez H. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Canal 5, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | TUDN App, TUDN, Univision |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.92 | 1.40 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 34% | 66% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (218/286) | 86% (478/555) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.92 | 1.40 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.20 | 1.37 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 13 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (218/286) | 86% (478/555) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 50% (28/56) | 61% (31/51) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 58% (53/92) | 73% (87/120) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 21% (3/14) | 45% (9/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.36 | 1.68 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 69% (9/13) | 67% (10/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 35 | 41 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 24 | 16 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.37 | 0.20 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.37 | 0.20 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 41', Ruiz M. 🟨,
- 43', Djurdjevic U. 🟨,
- 44', Simon S. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 61', Garcia M. E. ↓, Rios De Alba V. H. ↑,
- 65', del Villar E. ↓, Morales R. ↑,
- 73', Matheus Doria 🟨,
- 80', Djurdjevic U. ↓, Coccaro M. ↑,
- 86', Castro N. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
- 90+1', Ruiz M. ↓, Herrera H. ↑,
- 90+1', Gallardo J. ↓, Isais M. ↑,
Chances of winning
Atlas
18.8% | Draw
21.5% | Toluca
59.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlas than the current prediction. (-2.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+5.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Toluca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Atlas - Toluca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
5.08 ↓
(5.4) |
4.41 ↓
(4.7) |
1.58 ↑
(1.49) |
5.6%
(6.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Atlas - Toluca?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 5 - 83.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 2 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Atlas (3.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- 1X2, 2nd Half - Toluca (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- 1X2, 1st Half - Toluca (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Atlas (votes: 1 - 20%). Toluca (votes: 4 - 80%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- Toluca is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlas won 0.
- Atlas has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Toluca is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Toluca is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Atlas: Cruz C.
(Knee Injury)
Manotas M.
(Inactive)
Ortega E.
(Suspended)
Zaldivar E.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Toluca: Luan
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Atlas: Lozano J.
(Muscle Injury)
Sanchez A.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlas won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 25:39. (average 1.3:2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Atlas won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 0.9:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Atlas won against Toluca?
Atlas has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Atlas?
Toluca has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Atlas - Toluca were as follows:
12.04.2025
Atlas
-
Toluca
2:3
28.09.2024
Toluca
-
Atlas
4:1
07.04.2024
Toluca
-
Atlas
4:1
26.08.2023
Atlas
-
Toluca
0:0
01.02.2023
Atlas
-
Toluca
0:0
Mexican Liga MX Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Guadalajara Chivas | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 12:6 | 6 | 18 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13:8 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | UNAM Pumas | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14:6 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Toluca | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 9:2 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Pachuca | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9:5 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Atlas | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9:9 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | Club America | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Tigres UANL | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11:8 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Monterrey | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10:7 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Necaxa | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 6:6 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Atl. San Luis | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12:13 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Club Leon | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7:10 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Queretaro | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5:8 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Puebla | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4:10 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Juarez | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8:12 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Mazatlan FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7:14 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Santos Laguna | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7:21 | -14 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
