Result
2:0
27/09/2025 at 21:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Primera A - Clausura - Round 13
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
---|
Colombia | Win+ Futbol, Win play |
Mexico | Fanatiz |
South-america | RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional |
Usa | Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2 |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.65 | 0.97 |
Ball Possession |
---|
58% | 42% |
Total shots |
---|
20 | 15 |
Shots on target |
---|
7 | 5 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 0 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
7 | 4 |
Passes |
---|
86% (354/412) | 83% (242/293) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
3 | 2 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.65 | 0.97 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
1.20 | 0.93 |
Total shots |
---|
20 | 15 |
Shots on target |
---|
7 | 5 |
Shots off target |
---|
7 | 7 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
6 | 3 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
9 | 7 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
11 | 8 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 0 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 0 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
7 | 4 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
25 | 10 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 3 |
Offsides |
---|
3 | 5 |
Free Kicks |
---|
15 | 13 |
Passes |
---|
86% (354/412) | 83% (242/293) |
Long passes |
---|
64% (35/55) | 55% (31/56) |
Passes in final third |
---|
68% (73/107) | 68% (55/81) |
Crosses |
---|
26% (5/19) | 42% (8/19) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.52 | 1.03 |
Throw-ins |
---|
15 | 13 |
Fouls |
---|
13 | 15 |
Tackles |
---|
70% (7/10) | 91% (10/11) |
Duels won |
---|
31 | 38 |
Clearances |
---|
11 | 22 |
Interceptions |
---|
6 | 2 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
6 | 5 |
xGOT faced |
---|
0.93 | 1.20 |
Goals prevented |
---|
0.93 | -0.80 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 19', Hinestroza M. 🟨,
- 39', Candido C. 🟨,
- 42', Hurtado J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 53', 1 - 0, Tesillo W. ⚽,
- 59', Novoa D. 🟨,
- 60', 2 - 0, Campuzano J. (Pen),
- 65', Hurtado J. ↓, Bruno Savio ↑,
- 68', Moreno M. ↓, Sarmiento A. ↑,
- 68', Bauza J. ↓, Rengifo J. ↑,
- 76', Castro Espinosa B. D. ↓, Canozales C. ↑,
- 76', Arevalo Chaparro J. N. ↓, Giordana S. ↑,
- 82', Morelos A. ↓, Batista F. ↑,
- 83', Sarmiento A. 🟨,
- 85', Hinestroza M. ↓, Toscano Bassa K. D. ↑,
- 85', Vega S. ↓, Victoria Palacios D. S. ↑,
- 86', Mosquera E. ↓, Viveros S. ↑,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/5dpvfrrk
Chances of winning
Atlético Nacional 60.9% | Draw 24.2% | Millonarios 15% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Nacional's performance.Millonarios has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-6.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Nacional that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Millonarios than the current prediction. (+3.3%)
Atlético Nacional - Millonarios Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
1.55 ↓ (1.77) |
3.93 ↑ (3.28) |
6.22 ↑ (4.98) |
5.9% (7.3%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Atlético Nacional - Millonarios?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Millonarios will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 72.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 46.4% – 99%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 6 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 13).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Nacional won 0.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Atlético Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Millonarios has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Atlético Nacional is seen as the favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético Nacional won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 14:17. (average 0.7:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Atlético Nacional won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 0.7:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Nacional won against Millonarios?
Atlético Nacional has won 3 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Millonarios won against Atlético Nacional?
Millonarios has won 7 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Nacional - Millonarios were as follows:
16.06.2025
Atlético Nacional
-
Millonarios
0:1
05.06.2025
Millonarios
-
Atlético Nacional
0:0
13.04.2025
Millonarios
-
Atlético Nacional
0:0
02.12.2024
Atlético Nacional
-
Millonarios
1:1
29.11.2024
Millonarios
-
Atlético Nacional
2:1
Latest results of Atlético Nacional
Latest results of Millonarios
Colombian Primera A Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Bucaramanga | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 25:12 | 13 | 27 |
2 | Junior | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 26:17 | 9 | 25 |
3 | Fortaleza | 14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 19:13 | 6 | 25 |
4 | Ind. Medellin | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24:17 | 7 | 24 |
5 | Atl. Nacional | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 23:16 | 7 | 24 |
6 | Deportes Tolima | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 17:12 | 5 | 23 |
7 | Santa Fe | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 15:11 | 4 | 20 |
8 | Dep. Cali | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 19:19 | 0 | 20 |
9 | Alianza | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 19:19 | 0 | 20 |
10 | Llaneros | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 11:13 | -2 | 19 |
11 | Once Caldas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16:16 | 0 | 16 |
12 | Pereira | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 12:14 | -2 | 15 |
13 | U. Magdalena | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 17:24 | -7 | 15 |
14 | America De Cali | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 10:11 | -1 | 14 |
15 | Aguilas | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 16:19 | -3 | 14 |
16 | Millonarios | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 14:19 | -5 | 14 |
17 | Envigado | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 11:14 | -3 | 13 |
18 | Chico | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 11:22 | -11 | 12 |
19 | Dep. Pasto | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:21 | -6 | 11 |
20 | La Equidad | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7:18 | -11 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )