Result
2:0
27/09/2025 at 21:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Primera A - Clausura - Round 13
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Colombia | Win+ Futbol, Win play |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 South-america | RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional |
 Usa | Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.65 | 0.97 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (354/412) | 83% (242/293) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.65 | 0.97 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.20 | 0.93 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 10 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (354/412) | 83% (242/293) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 64% (35/55) | 55% (31/56) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (73/107) | 68% (55/81) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 26% (5/19) | 42% (8/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.52 | 1.03 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 15 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 70% (7/10) | 91% (10/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 31 | 38 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 11 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.93 | 1.20 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.93 | -0.80 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 19', Hinestroza M. 🟨,
- 39', Candido C. 🟨,
- 42', Hurtado J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 53', 1 - 0, Tesillo W. ⚽,
- 59', Novoa D. 🟨,
- 60', 2 - 0, Campuzano J. (Pen),
- 65', Hurtado J. ↓, Bruno Savio ↑,
- 68', Moreno M. ↓, Sarmiento A. ↑,
- 68', Bauza J. ↓, Rengifo J. ↑,
- 76', Castro Espinosa B. D. ↓, Canozales C. ↑,
- 76', Arevalo Chaparro J. N. ↓, Giordana S. ↑,
- 82', Morelos A. ↓, Batista F. ↑,
- 83', Sarmiento A. 🟨,
- 85', Hinestroza M. ↓, Toscano Bassa K. D. ↑,
- 85', Vega S. ↓, Victoria Palacios D. S. ↑,
- 86', Mosquera E. ↓, Viveros S. ↑,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/5dpvfrrk
Chances of winning
Atlético Nacional
60.9% | Draw
24.2% | Millonarios
15% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Nacional's performance.Millonarios has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-6.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Nacional that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Millonarios than the current prediction. (+3.3%)
Atlético Nacional - Millonarios Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.55 ↓
(1.77) |
3.93 ↑
(3.28) |
6.22 ↑
(4.98) |
5.9%
(7.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Atlético Nacional - Millonarios?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Millonarios will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 72.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 46.4% – 99%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 6 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 13).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Nacional won 0.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Atlético Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Millonarios has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Atlético Nacional is seen as the favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético Nacional won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 14:17. (average 0.7:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Atlético Nacional won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 0.7:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Nacional won against Millonarios?
Atlético Nacional has won 3 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Millonarios won against Atlético Nacional?
Millonarios has won 7 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Nacional - Millonarios were as follows:
16.06.2025
Atlético Nacional
-
Millonarios
0:1
05.06.2025
Millonarios
-
Atlético Nacional
0:0
13.04.2025
Millonarios
-
Atlético Nacional
0:0
02.12.2024
Atlético Nacional
-
Millonarios
1:1
29.11.2024
Millonarios
-
Atlético Nacional
2:1
Latest results of Atlético Nacional
Latest results of Millonarios
Colombian Primera A Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bucaramanga | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 29:13 | 16 | 34 |
| 2 | Ind. Medellin | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 34:22 | 12 | 31 |
| 3 | Junior | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 31:21 | 10 | 31 |
| 4 | Fortaleza | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 23:16 | 7 | 31 |
| 5 | Deportes Tolima | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 22:15 | 7 | 29 |
| 6 | Atl. Nacional | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 27:19 | 8 | 28 |
| 7 | Llaneros | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 16:16 | 0 | 25 |
| 8 | Aguilas | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 26:23 | 3 | 24 |
| 9 | America De Cali | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 18:16 | 2 | 23 |
| 10 | Alianza | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 21:21 | 0 | 23 |
| 11 | Santa Fe | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 17:16 | 1 | 22 |
| 12 | Once Caldas | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 19:23 | -4 | 22 |
| 13 | Millonarios | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 20:24 | -4 | 21 |
| 14 | Dep. Cali | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 21:25 | -4 | 20 |
| 15 | Pereira | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 18 |
| 16 | U. Magdalena | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 20:27 | -7 | 18 |
| 17 | Envigado | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 14:20 | -6 | 16 |
| 18 | Chico | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 13:23 | -10 | 16 |
| 19 | Dep. Pasto | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 19:27 | -8 | 13 |
| 20 | La Equidad | 17 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 9:26 | -17 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )
