Result
0:1
17/01/2026 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 18
- Referee: Pinheiro J. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Portugal | Sport TV6 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.57 | 1.15 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 37% | 63% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (257/346) | 88% (523/593) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.57 | 1.15 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.26 | 0.60 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 15 | 26 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (257/346) | 88% (523/593) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 50% (39/78) | 47% (25/53) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 57% (43/75) | 82% (183/222) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 27% (4/15) | 29% (9/31) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.41 | 1.75 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 14 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 54% (7/13) | 67% (10/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 52 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 39 | 19 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.60 | 0.26 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.40 | 0.26 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 5', Devenish C. 🟥,
- 10', van Ee E. 🟨,
- 11', Mendonca G. 🟨,
- 38', Sanchez J. 🟨,
- 42', 0 - 1, Barbero I. ⚽, Fukui T. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Kuipers B. ↓, Dante A. ↑,
- 53', Perea O. ↓, Duarte D. ↑,
- 58', Barbero I. 🟨,
- 67', Lee H. ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
- 72', Barbero I. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
- 72', Roni ↓, Algobia A. ↑,
- 72', Fukui T. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
- 72', Tomane ↓, Nene ↑,
- 79', Rocha M. 🟨,
- 80', Pedro Lima ↓, Grau J. ↑,
- 80', Mendonca G. ↓, Neiva G. ↑,
- 83', Grau J. 🟨,
- 84', Djouahra N. ↓, Puche ↑,
- 89', De Arruabarrena I. 🟨,
- 90+3', Semedo R. 🟨,
- 90+6', Flores M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
AVS
35.6% | Draw
30.8% | Arouca
33.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
AVS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in AVS's performance.Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arouca might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for AVS than the current prediction. (-5.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with AVS that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+7.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arouca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
AVS - Arouca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.65 ↓
(3.09) |
3.06 ↓
(3.27) |
2.81 ↑
(2.2) |
6.1%
(8.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for AVS - Arouca?
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. AVS will win (votes: 7 - 41.2%). Arouca will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 35.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AVS: 17.8% – 64.6%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Arouca (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH 0 - AVS (1.87) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 5 high ROI users predict this event. AVS (votes: 1 - 20%). Arouca (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).
- AVS is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Arouca has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in AVS: Duarte D.
(Inactive)
Galletto T.
(Coach's decision)
Molina G.
(Leg Injury)
- There will not play in Arouca: Flores M.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 4 head-to-head matches, AVS won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.8:1.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, AVS won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has AVS won against Arouca?
AVS has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against AVS?
Arouca has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between AVS - Arouca were as follows:
09.08.2025
Arouca
-
AVS
3:1
08.03.2025
AVS
-
Arouca
0:1
05.10.2024
Arouca
-
AVS
1:1
26.09.2023
AVS
-
Arouca
1:2
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 23 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 44:7 | 37 | 62 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 23 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 59:12 | 47 | 58 |
| 3 | Benfica | 23 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 49:13 | 36 | 55 |
| 4 | Braga | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 48:22 | 26 | 42 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 34:21 | 13 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 35 |
| 7 | Estoril | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 46:39 | 7 | 33 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 29:33 | -4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 27:34 | -7 | 31 |
| 10 | Alverca | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 23:38 | -15 | 26 |
| 11 | Arouca | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 31:49 | -18 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 23 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 25:43 | -18 | 22 |
| 14 | Nacional | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 27:34 | -7 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 20 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 23 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 18:29 | -11 | 18 |
| 17 | Tondela | 23 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 17:36 | -19 | 18 |
| 18 | AFS | 23 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
