Result
1:0
14/05/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 5
- Referee: Herrera D. (Arg)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD |
 Australia | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3 |
 Canada | beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+, ESPN |
 Georgia | Silk Sport 3 |
 Indonesia | Mola TV |
 Israel | Sport 4 |
 Italy | Como TV |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 South-america | ESPN 2 South |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network |
 Venezuela | Disney+, ESPN |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.58 | 0.15 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 56% | 44% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (384/452) | 83% (302/366) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.58 | 0.15 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.82 | 0.10 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (384/452) | 83% (302/366) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 56% (27/48) | 40% (17/43) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (91/128) | 66% (64/97) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 12% (3/25) | 30% (3/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.45 | 0.23 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 27 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 5 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 75% (12/16) | 63% (10/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 35 | 37 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 14 | 36 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 14 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.10 | 0.82 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.10 | -0.18 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 31', Uribe M. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', 1 - 0, Viveros K. ⚽, Arce B. (A),
- 68', Rodriguez L. ↓, Willian Jose ↑,
- 68', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
- 77', Caio Alexandre ↓, Nicolas Acevedo ↑,
- 77', Cauly ↓, Kayky ↑,
- 80', Viveros K. ↓, Morelos A. ↑,
- 81', Cardona E. ↓, Asprilla D. ↑,
- 87', Jean Lucas ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
- 88', Arce B. ↓, Sarmiento A. ↑,
- 90+4', Sarmiento A. 🟨,
- 90+4', Hinestroza M. 🟨,
- 90+6', Hinestroza M. ↓, Rivero E. ↑,
Chances of winning
Atlético Nacional
52.6% | Draw
26.4% | Bahia
21% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Nacional's performance.Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bahia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-7.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Nacional that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+5.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bahia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Atlético Nacional - Bahia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.81 ↓
(2.13) |
3.54 ↑
(3.29) |
4.52 ↑
(3.5) |
5.5%
(6.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Atlético Nacional - Bahia?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1 - Atlético Nacional (2.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Atlético Nacional will win
(5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Nacional will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético Nacional (votes: 3 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Atlético Nacional is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Bahia has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Atlético Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Atlético Nacional is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Atlético Nacional: Zapata J.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Bahia: Arias S.
(Muscle Injury)
Gilberto
(Inactive)
Kanu
(Muscle Injury)
Ronaldo Strada
(Muscle Injury)
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Atlético Nacional won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).
- Including home match between the teams, Atlético Nacional won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Nacional won against Bahia?
Atlético Nacional has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bahia won against Atlético Nacional?
Bahia has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Nacional - Bahia were as follows:
24.04.2025
Bahia
-
Atlético Nacional
1:0
Latest results of Atlético Nacional
Copa Libertadores Table
Group StageGroup A | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Estudiantes L.P | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Ind. Medellin | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:5 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Cusco | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:5 | -4 | 0 |
Group B | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Deportes Tolima | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Nacional | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6:6 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | U. de Deportes | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Coquimbo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 4 |
Group C | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. Rivadavia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:2 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Bolivar | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:2 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | La Guaira | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:5 | -3 | 2 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:4 | -3 | 1 |
Group D | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Boca Juniors | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:2 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | U. Catolica | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Barcelona SC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:6 | -5 | 0 |
Group E | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Corinthians | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Platense | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Santa Fe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Penarol | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 1 |
Group F | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Sporting Cristal | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Cerro Porteno | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Junior | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:4 | -3 | 1 |
Group G | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | LDU Quito | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3:1 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Lanus | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Mirassol | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Always Ready | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:4 | -4 | 0 |
Group H | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Rosario Central | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Ind. del Valle | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Universidad Central | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Libertad Asuncion | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3:7 | -4 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)
