Result
1:2
29/03/2026 at 19:20 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Primera A - Apertura - Round 14
- Referee: Ortega C. (Col)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Colombia | Win+ Futbol, Win play |
 South-america | RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional |
 Usa | Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.94 | 1.89 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (249/311) | 77% (260/336) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.94 | 1.89 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.13 | 1.42 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 11 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 19 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (249/311) | 77% (260/336) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 42% (22/53) | 48% (31/64) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (77/108) | 61% (55/90) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 12% (3/26) | 50% (3/6) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.13 | 0.37 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 14 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (8/12) | 83% (10/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 33 | 35 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 11 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.42 | 0.13 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.58 | -0.87 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 18', Parra N. 🟨,
- 20', Casco M. 🟨,
- 22', 0 - 1, Morelos A. ⚽, Bello E. (A),
- 27', 1 - 1, Estupinan A. ⚽,
- 32', Gil N. 🟨,
- 44', Caicedo J. 🟨,
- 45+2', Cardona E. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 58', Estupinan A. 🟨,
- 59', Roman A. 🟨,
- 63', Morelos A. 🟨,
- 65', Perlaza J. ↓, Serje Orozco E. C. ↑,
- 65', Chavez D. ↓, Morelo W. ↑,
- 67', Sarmiento A. ↓, Moreno M. ↑,
- 73', Morelos A. ↓, Asprilla D. ↑,
- 76', Caicedo J. ↓, Pisano M. ↑,
- 78', 1 - 2, Rengifo J. ⚽, Cardona E. (A),
- 84', Garavito M. ↓, Preciado P. ↑,
- 87', Cardona E. ↓, Marin F. ↑,
- 87', Bello E. ↓, Arango C. ↑,
- 88', Rengifo J. 🟨,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/5yst9vsa
Chances of winning
Deportivo Pasto
31.2% | Draw
29.1% | Atlético Nacional
39.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Deportivo Pasto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)Atlético Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Pasto than the current prediction. (-3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (+3.9%)
Deportivo Pasto - Atlético Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.01 ↓
(3.35) |
3.23 ↓
(3.35) |
2.36 ↑
(2.15) |
6.6%
(6.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Deportivo Pasto - Atlético Nacional?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Deportivo Pasto will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Deportivo Pasto: 41.6% – 98.4%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Pasto won 0.
- Deportivo Pasto is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- In recent matches, Atlético Nacional has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Atlético Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Atlético Nacional is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Pasto won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 13:30. (average 0.7:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Pasto won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 0.7:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Deportivo Pasto won against Atlético Nacional?
Deportivo Pasto has won 0 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Nacional won against Deportivo Pasto?
Atlético Nacional has won 8 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Deportivo Pasto - Atlético Nacional were as follows:
18.10.2025
Deportivo Pasto
-
Atlético Nacional
2:2
29.04.2025
Atlético Nacional
-
Deportivo Pasto
3:0
05.12.2024
Atlético Nacional
-
Deportivo Pasto
2:1
24.11.2024
Deportivo Pasto
-
Atlético Nacional
0:1
05.10.2024
Deportivo Pasto
-
Atlético Nacional
1:2
Latest results of Deportivo Pasto
Latest results of Atlético Nacional
Colombian Primera A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Atl. Nacional ✔ | 16 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 33:13 | 20 | 37 |
| 2 | Dep. Pasto | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 22:17 | 5 | 31 |
| 3 | Junior | 16 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 24:20 | 4 | 28 |
| 4 | Deportes Tolima | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 24:14 | 10 | 27 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 26:19 | 7 | 26 |
| 6 | Inter Bogotu00e1 | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 20:21 | -1 | 25 |
| 7 | America De Cali | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 19:12 | 7 | 24 |
| 8 | Dep. Cali | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 18:14 | 4 | 23 |
| 9 | Bucaramanga | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 23:14 | 9 | 22 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 26:18 | 8 | 22 |
| 11 | Aguilas | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 16:20 | -4 | 22 |
| 12 | Llaneros | 16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 17:15 | 2 | 21 |
| 13 | Santa Fe | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 19:20 | -1 | 20 |
| 14 | Ind. Medellin | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 21:22 | -1 | 17 |
| 15 | Fortaleza | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17:23 | -6 | 16 |
| 16 | Cucuta | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 21:27 | -6 | 15 |
| 17 | Alianza | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 11:24 | -13 | 15 |
| 18 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 14:28 | -14 | 14 |
| 19 | Chico | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 11:26 | -15 | 11 |
| 20 | Pereira | 16 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 14:29 | -15 | 7 |
Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Atl. Nacional is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )
