Bastia vs Grenoble – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

03/01/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Stade Armand Cesari (Bastia).

Ligue 2 - Round 18
Referee: Lissorgue R. (Fra)
Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.07	2.47
Ball Possession
42%	58%
Total shots
11	17
Shots on target
4	6
Big Chances
2	2
Corner Kicks
1	4
Passes
73% (223/307)	78% (324/413)
Yellow Cards
4	3
Expected Goals (xG)
1.07	2.47
xG on target (xGOT)
0.82	0.80
Total shots
11	17
Shots on target
4	6
Shots off target
3	7
Blocked Shots
4	4
Shots inside the Box
8	12
Shots outside the Box
3	5
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Big Chances
2	2
Corner Kicks
1	4
Touches in opposition box
15	24
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
0	6
Free Kicks
15	22
Passes
73% (223/307)	78% (324/413)
Long passes
31% (20/64)	57% (33/58)
Passes in final third
52% (32/62)	62% (73/117)
Crosses
20% (1/5)	45% (9/20)
Expected assists (xA)
0.60	0.86
Throw-ins
22	34
Fouls
22	15
Tackles
88% (7/8)	64% (7/11)
Duels won
45	55
Clearances
44	9
Interceptions
11	4
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
6	3
xGOT faced
0.80	0.82
Goals prevented
0.80	-0.18

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', Vidal C. 🟨,
13', Sebas J. 🟨,
25', Vincent C. 🟨,
29', Zahui N. 🟨,
44', 1 - 0, Sebas J. ⚽, Bohnert F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Petrignani M. ↓, Basset D. ↑,
64', Guevara J. 🟨,
69', Sarikaya E. ↓, Mouyokolo L. ↑,
69', Valls T. ↓, Bangre M. ↑,
76', Sebas J. ↓, Aiki A. ↑,
76', Boutrah A. ↓, Karamoko I. ↑,
77', Xantippe M. ↓, Mion M. ↑,
77', Zahui N. ↓, Kerouedan A. ↑,
81', Vidal C. ↓, Bechikh M. ↑,
90+1', Paquiez G. 🟨,
90+4', Janneh J. ↓, Lebas P. ↑,
90+5', Bohnert F. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Bastia
43.8%

Draw
30.2%

Grenoble
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

30.3%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

29.8%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bastia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Grenoble has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grenoble than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Bastia - Grenoble Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.16)	3.08 (3.08)	3.59 ↑ (3.54)	7.3% (7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Bastia - Grenoble?

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Bastia will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Grenoble will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grenoble: 35% – 88%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Grenoble (2.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Grenoble will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Grenoble (votes: 4 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National and 11).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 1.
Bastia is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Grenoble has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Bastia will hold a modest advantage in this match.
There will not play in Bastia: Akueson G. (Knee Injury) Ariss Z. (Yellow Cards) Bathily Y. (Injury) Djedje D. (Injury) Ducrocq T. (Yellow Cards) Guidi D. (Inactive) Janneh J. (Inactive) Parravicini N. (Hernia)
There will not play in Grenoble: Diop M. (Injury) Mouazan B. (Inactive)
There are questionable in Bastia: Guevara J. (Injury)
In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 1.1:0.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Bastia won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Bastia won against Grenoble?

Bastia has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Grenoble won against Bastia?

Grenoble has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Bastia - Grenoble were as follows:

26.09.2025 Grenoble - Bastia 0:0

25.04.2025 Bastia - Grenoble 2:3

03.01.2025 Grenoble - Bastia 3:2

02.03.2024 Bastia - Grenoble 1:0

02.09.2023 Grenoble - Bastia 0:0

Latest results of Bastia

20.12.2025 Pontivy - Bastia 0:1 ✺

13.12.2025 Saint-Étienne - Bastia 2:2 ✺

05.12.2025 Bastia - Red Star Abandoned ✺

29.11.2025 Saint-Malo - Bastia 0:1 ✺

25.11.2025 Bastia - Laval 0:2 ✺

Latest results of Grenoble

20.12.2025 Grenoble - Nancy 1:2 ✺

13.12.2025 Grenoble - Montpellier 1:1 ✺

05.12.2025 Grenoble - Nancy 1:0 ✺

28.11.2025 Annecy - Grenoble 1:2 ✺

21.11.2025 Boulogne - Grenoble 3:1 ✺

French Ligue 2 Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Troyes	25	14	6	5	40:25	15	48
2	St Etienne	25	14	4	7	44:29	15	46
3	Reims	25	11	9	5	37:23	14	42
4	Le Mans	25	10	11	4	30:24	6	41
5	Red Star	25	11	8	6	30:25	5	41
6	Annecy	25	11	6	8	34:25	9	39
7	Dunkerque	25	10	8	7	41:27	14	38
8	Rodez	25	9	10	6	31:31	0	37
9	Montpellier	25	10	5	10	28:25	3	35
10	Guingamp	25	9	8	8	35:36	-1	35
11	Pau FC	25	9	7	9	37:42	-5	34
12	Grenoble	25	6	11	8	24:29	-5	29
13	Clermont	25	7	7	11	29:33	-4	28
14	Nancy	25	7	6	12	22:33	-11	27
15	Boulogne	25	7	6	12	25:36	-11	27
16	Amiens	25	6	5	14	28:41	-13	23
17	Laval	25	3	10	12	19:35	-16	19
18	Bastia	25	3	9	13	12:27	-15	18

      Promotion ~ Ligue 1
      Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
      Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Ligue 2 (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ National