Result
3:4
25/04/2026 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Bundesliga - Round 31
- Referee: Petersen M. (Ger)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | Azam Sports 2 |
 Argentina | Disney+, ESPN 2 |
 Australia | beIN Connect |
 Austria | Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1 |
 Belgium | Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2 |
 Bolivia | ESPN 2, ESPN |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 5 |
 Brazil | SporTV |
 Bulgaria | Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra |
 Cameroon | CRTV Sports, Dash TV |
 Canada | DAZN Canada, OneSoccer |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 China | Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8 |
 Colombia | Disney+, ESPN |
 Croatia | SportKlub 1 |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 3, Oneplay |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Ecuador | ESPN |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW |
 Greece | Nova Sports 2, Nova Sports 3 |
 Hong-kong | beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player |
 Hungary | Arena 4 |
 Iceland | Viaplay |
 India | Sony LIV, Vision+ |
 Indonesia | K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel |
 Israel | Sport 4 |
 Italy | Sky Sport Max |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Laos | beIN Connect |
 Malaysia | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka |
 Malta | GO TV, TSN Malta 5 |
 Mexico | Izzi TV, Sky Sport |
 Mongolia | Premier Sports 5 |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 North-central-america | Sky Sports Norte |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Norway | TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1 |
 Pakistan | Tapmad |
 Paraguay | ESPN 2, ESPN |
 Peru | Disney+, ESPN 2 |
 Philippines | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3 |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 1 |
 Portugal | DAZN 3, DAZN / App |
 Romania | Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Saudi-arabia | MBC Shahid |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 1 |
 Singapore | beIN Sports 3 |
 Slovakia | Nova Sport 3, Voyo |
 Slovenia | Sport TV1 |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Spain | DAZN Espana |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 Switzerland | Sky Sport Bundesliga 1 |
 Thailand | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, PPTV Sports |
 Turkey | S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2 |
 Ukraine | Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN USA, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+, ESPN, Inter |
 Vietnam | TV 360 |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.40 | 1.97 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 30% | 70% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (193/254) | 90% (556/619) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.40 | 1.97 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.76 | 2.66 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 34 | 42 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (193/254) | 90% (556/619) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 43% (23/53) | 45% (14/31) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (58/83) | 78% (160/204) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 22% (4/18) | 23% (5/22) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.04 | 1.64 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 43% (10/23) | 53% (8/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 52 | 53 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 27 | 36 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.66 | 3.76 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.34 | 0.76 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (3 - 0)
- 15', 1 - 0, Kohr D. ⚽, Sano K. (A),
- 20', Kohr D. 🟨,
- 29', 2 - 0, Nebel P. ⚽,
- 33', Laimer K. 🟨,
- 45+2', 3 - 0, Becker S. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 4)
- 46', Pavlovic A. ↓, Kane H. ↑,
- 46', Diaz L. ↓, Olise M. ↑,
- 53', 3 - 1, Jackson N. ⚽, Laimer K. (A),
- 57', Davies A. ↓, Stanisic J. ↑,
- 57', Guerreiro R. ↓, Musiala J. ↑,
- 71', Becker S. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
- 73', 3 - 2, Olise M. ⚽, Laimer K. (A),
- 77', Ndiaye B. ↓, Tah J. ↑,
- 79', Amiri N. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
- 80', Widmer S. ↓, Caci A. ↑,
- 80', 3 - 3, Musiala J. ⚽,
- 83', 3 - 4, Kane H. ⚽,
- 85', Kohr D. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
- 85', Nebel P. ↓, Boving W. ↑,
- 90+7', Olise M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Mainz
23% | Draw
21.6% | Bayern Munich
55.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mainz's performance.Bayern Munich has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bayern Munich might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-5.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mainz that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (+9.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bayern Munich could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Mainz - Bayern Munich Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.18 ↓
(5.43) |
4.47 ↓
(5.21) |
1.75 ↑
(1.48) |
3.3%
(5.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.50
What is the prediction for Mainz - Bayern Munich?
Users Predictions:
31 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 6 - 19.4%). Bayern will win (votes: 21 - 67.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 12.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 51.2% – 84.2%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Bayern (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 1 - 50%). Bayern (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
- Bayern is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 1.
- Recent performances by Mainz have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Bayern is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Mainz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Bayern is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Mainz: Dal M.
(Knee Injury)
Hollerbach B.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Lee Jae-Sung
(Toe Injury)
Leitsch M.
(Thigh Injury)
Silas
(Broken shinbone)
- There will not play in Bayern: Bischof T.
(Calf Injury)
Cardozo M.
(Thigh Injury)
Gnabry S.
(Muscle Injury)
Karl L.
(Muscle Injury)
Kiala C.
(Ankle Injury)
Mike W.
(Hip Injury)
Ulreich S.
(Muscle Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 24:66. (average 1.2:3.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 13:22. (average 1.3:2.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Mainz won against Bayern Munich?
Mainz has won 2 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bayern Munich won against Mainz?
Bayern Munich has won 6 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Bayern Munich were as follows:
14.12.2025
Bayern Munich
-
Mainz
2:2
26.04.2025
Bayern Munich
-
Mainz
3:0
14.12.2024
Mainz
-
Bayern Munich
2:1
30.10.2024
Mainz
-
Bayern Munich
0:4
09.03.2024
Bayern Munich
-
Mainz
8:1
Latest results of Bayern Munich
German Bundesliga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bayern Munich ✔ | 32 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 116:35 | 81 | 83 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 65:31 | 34 | 67 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 32 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 63:42 | 21 | 62 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 66:43 | 23 | 58 |
| 5 | Stuttgart | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 66:46 | 20 | 58 |
| 6 | Hoffenheim | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 64:48 | 16 | 58 |
| 7 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 57:60 | -3 | 43 |
| 8 | Freiburg | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 44:52 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | Augsburg | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 42:56 | -14 | 40 |
| 10 | Mainz | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 41:50 | -9 | 37 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 36:51 | -15 | 34 |
| 12 | Union Berlin | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 37:57 | -20 | 33 |
| 13 | FC Koln | 32 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 47:55 | -8 | 32 |
| 14 | B. Monchengladbach | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 36:50 | -14 | 32 |
| 15 | Werder Bremen | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 37:57 | -20 | 32 |
| 16 | St. Pauli | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 27:55 | -28 | 26 |
| 17 | Wolfsburg | 31 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 41:66 | -25 | 25 |
| 18 | Heidenheim | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 38:69 | -31 | 23 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga
Clinched Spots for Teams
Bayern Munich is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
