Result
1:1
14/02/2026 at 01:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- A-League - Round 17
- Referee: Evans S. (Aus)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Australia | Paramount+ |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Hong-kong | M Plus Live, myTV SUPER |
 India | FanCode, FanCode |
 New-zealand | Sky Sport 6 |
 United-kingdom | Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 4 |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.09 | 0.64 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 63% | 37% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (415/519) | 71% (223/313) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.09 | 0.64 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.71 | 1.01 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 12 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (415/519) | 71% (223/313) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 36% (19/53) | 46% (27/59) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (118/172) | 51% (40/79) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 19% (4/21) | 27% (3/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.73 | 0.23 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 92% (11/12) | 50% (6/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 38 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.01 | 0.71 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.01 | -0.29 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 13', 1 - 0, Nduka C. ⚽, Mata J. (A),
- 43', D'Agostino N. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 47', Valadon J. 🟨,
- 53', Ruhs M. 🟨,
- 57', Esposito S. 🟨,
- 58', Jelacic K. ↓, Clarismario ↑,
- 69', Velupillay N. ↓, Grimaldi M. ↑,
- 69', Nduka C. ↓, Vergos N. ↑,
- 71', Ruhs M. ↓, Shaw E. ↑,
- 71', Long Ch. ↓, Vrakas G. ↑,
- 76', 1 - 1, D'Agostino N. ⚽,
- 79', D'Agostino N. ↓, Vidic J. ↑,
- 81', Rawlins J. 🟨,
- 85', McGarry J. 🟨,
- 90+2', Dench M. ↓, Brazete J. ↑,
Chances of winning
Melbourne Victory
58.4% | Draw
23.2% | Brisbane Roar
18.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Melbourne Victory has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Melbourne Victory's performance.Brisbane Roar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (-12%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Melbourne Victory that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brisbane Roar than the current prediction. (+6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brisbane Roar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Melbourne Victory - Brisbane Roar Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.63 ↓
(1.73) |
4.08 ↑
(3.6) |
5.12 ↑
(4.3) |
5.5%
(8.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Melbourne Victory - Brisbane Roar?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Melbourne Victory will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Brisbane will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Melbourne Victory: 39.2% – 89.4%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.5 - Brisbane (2.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Melbourne Victory will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Melbourne Victory (votes: 4 - 80%). Brisbane (votes: 1 - 20%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 8).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 1.
- Melbourne Victory has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Brisbane is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Melbourne Victory may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Melbourne Victory is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Melbourne Victory: Hamill B.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Brisbane: Amanatidis N.
(Muscle Injury)
Hore H.
(Inactive)
Maieroni N.
(Yellow Cards)
Stajic M.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There are questionable in Brisbane: D'Agostino N.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 27:24. (average 1.4:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne Victory won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 1:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Melbourne Victory won against Brisbane Roar?
Melbourne Victory has won 1 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Brisbane Roar won against Melbourne Victory?
Brisbane Roar has won 3 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Melbourne Victory - Brisbane Roar were as follows:
28.11.2025
Brisbane Roar
-
Melbourne Victory
1:0
01.03.2025
Brisbane Roar
-
Melbourne Victory
1:1
09.11.2024
Melbourne Victory
-
Brisbane Roar
2:0
20.04.2024
Melbourne Victory
-
Brisbane Roar
0:0
03.03.2024
Brisbane Roar
-
Melbourne Victory
3:2
Latest results of Melbourne Victory
Latest results of Brisbane Roar
Australian A-League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 19 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 41:29 | 12 | 37 |
| 2 | Auckland FC | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 32:18 | 14 | 35 |
| 3 | Sydney FC | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 26:18 | 8 | 32 |
| 4 | Adelaide United | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 33:28 | 5 | 30 |
| 5 | Melbourne Victory | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 28:24 | 4 | 28 |
| 6 | Macarthur FC | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 24:28 | -4 | 25 |
| 7 | Central Coast Mariners | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 24:26 | -2 | 23 |
| 8 | Brisbane Roar | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 19:25 | -6 | 23 |
| 9 | Melbourne City | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 20:27 | -7 | 22 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 22:30 | -8 | 21 |
| 11 | WS Wanderers | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 21:26 | -5 | 20 |
| 12 | Wellington Phoenix | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 28:39 | -11 | 20 |
Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
