Result
0:3
03/01/2026 at 01:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- A-League - Round 11
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Australia | 10 Drama, Channel 10, Paramount+ |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Hong-kong | M Plus Live, myTV SUPER |
 India | FanCode, FanCode |
 New-zealand | Sky Sport 1 |
 United-kingdom | Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports 3 |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.44 | 1.37 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 66% | 34% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (372/455) | 66% (158/239) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.44 | 1.37 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.05 | 1.52 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 34 | 9 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (372/455) | 66% (158/239) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 43% (26/60) | 23% (14/60) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (91/144) | 51% (51/100) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 19% (5/27) | 29% (2/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.84 | 0.28 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 7 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 44% (8/18) | 83% (10/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 52 | 54 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 54 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.52 | 1.05 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.48 | 1.05 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 6', 0 - 1, Eze I. ⚽,
- 15', Herrington L. 🟨,
- 35', O'Shea J. 🟨,
- 38', Armiento C. 🟥,
- 38', Bouzanis D. 🟨,
- 38', Eze I. 🟨,
- 39', Bility H. ↓, Hore H. ↑,
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 46', MacNicol Q. ↓, Long Ch. ↑,
- 46', Conchie F. ↓, Kelly-Heald L. ↑,
- 58', Ruhs M. ↓, Vrakas G. ↑,
- 59', 0 - 2, Nagasawa K. ⚽,
- 71', Najjarine R. ↓, Retre P. ↑,
- 79', Valkanis D. ↓, Lauton J. ↑,
- 85', Eze I. ↓, Brooke-Smith L. ↑,
- 90+1', 0 - 3, Retre P. ⚽, Brooke-Smith L. (A),
- 90+4', Nagasawa K. ↓, Lee R. ↑,
Chances of winning
Brisbane Roar
59.2% | Draw
22.5% | Wellington Phoenix
18.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Brisbane Roar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Brisbane Roar's performance.Wellington Phoenix has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brisbane Roar than the current prediction. (-5.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Brisbane Roar that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wellington Phoenix than the current prediction. (+2.6%)
Brisbane Roar - Wellington Phoenix Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.6 ↓
(1.75) |
4.15 ↑
(3.52) |
4.99 ↑
(4.32) |
6.5%
(8.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Brisbane Roar - Wellington Phoenix?
Users Predictions:
25 users predict this event. Brisbane will win (votes: 19 - 76%). Wellington will win (votes: 4 - 16%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brisbane: 59.3% – 92.7%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.75 - Brisbane (1.67) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- AH -1 - Wellington (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Brisbane Roar will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Brisbane (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Wellington (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 10).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brisbane won 1.
- Brisbane is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- In recent matches, Wellington has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Brisbane may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Brisbane has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Brisbane is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Brisbane: Amanatidis N.
(Muscle Injury)
Burke-Gilroy A.
(Foot Injury)
Ferkranus M.
(Muscle Injury)
Stajic M.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There will not play in Wellington: Edwards D.
(Inactive)
Ishige H.
(Injury)
Mileusnic N.
(Injury)
Oluwayemi J.
(Injury)
Payne T.
(Inactive)
Supyk L.
(Injury)
Walker N.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Brisbane won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 17:30. (average 0.9:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Brisbane won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 0.8:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Brisbane Roar won against Wellington Phoenix?
Brisbane Roar has won 1 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Wellington Phoenix won against Brisbane Roar?
Wellington Phoenix has won 5 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Brisbane Roar - Wellington Phoenix were as follows:
25.10.2025
Wellington Phoenix
-
Brisbane Roar
2:1
14.05.2025
Wellington Phoenix
-
Brisbane Roar
1:0
26.04.2025
Brisbane Roar
-
Wellington Phoenix
1:0
05.02.2025
Wellington Phoenix
-
Brisbane Roar
1:1
30.03.2024
Wellington Phoenix
-
Brisbane Roar
1:0
Latest results of Brisbane Roar
Latest results of Wellington Phoenix
Australian A-League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 19 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 41:29 | 12 | 37 |
| 2 | Auckland FC | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 32:18 | 14 | 35 |
| 3 | Sydney FC | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 26:18 | 8 | 32 |
| 4 | Adelaide United | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 33:28 | 5 | 30 |
| 5 | Melbourne Victory | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 28:24 | 4 | 28 |
| 6 | Macarthur FC | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 24:28 | -4 | 25 |
| 7 | Central Coast Mariners | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 24:26 | -2 | 23 |
| 8 | Brisbane Roar | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 19:25 | -6 | 23 |
| 9 | Melbourne City | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 20:27 | -7 | 22 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 22:30 | -8 | 21 |
| 11 | WS Wanderers | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 21:26 | -5 | 20 |
| 12 | Wellington Phoenix | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 28:39 | -11 | 20 |
Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
