Aston Villa vs Burnley – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

05/10/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Villa Park (Birmingham).

Premier League - Round 7
Referee: Kitchen A. (Eng)
Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, Supersport Action
Albania	SuperSport 4
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 3 DRM, fubo Sports Network 4 DRM
Chile	Disney+
China	QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 7, CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	Canal+ Live 4
Greece	Nova Sports 4
Hong-kong	Now Player, NOW Premier League 3
Hungary	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	SÝN Sport
India	Disney+ Hotstar
Indonesia	Vidio
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 258
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4, SuperSport 4
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Premier League 3, Canal+ Sport 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Mongolia	Premier Sports 3
Nepal	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	Sky Sport 6
Nigeria	SuperSport Action
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Canal+ Extra 3
Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Singapore	Hub Premier 3
Slovakia	Voyo
South-africa	SuperSport Action
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 2 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
United-kingdom	Sky Go, Sky Sports+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Peacock TV Premium, Peacock TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	K+ Action

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.37	0.43
Ball Possession
55%	45%
Total shots
15	5
Shots on target
7	2
Big Chances
3	1
Corner Kicks
6	4
Passes
88% (434/494)	80% (326/405)
Yellow Cards
3	1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.37	0.43
xG on target (xGOT)
2.94	0.32
Total shots
15	5
Shots on target
7	2
Shots off target
5	1
Blocked Shots
3	2
Shots inside the Box
12	3
Shots outside the Box
3	2
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Headed Goals
0	1
Big Chances
3	1
Corner Kicks
6	4
Touches in opposition box
24	11
Accurate through passes
1	1
Offsides
3	5
Free Kicks
15	9
Passes
88% (434/494)	80% (326/405)
Long passes
59% (23/39)	43% (24/56)
Passes in final third
73% (66/91)	55% (55/100)
Crosses
73% (8/11)	33% (2/6)
Expected assists (xA)
1.40	0.27
Throw-ins
9	17
Fouls
9	15
Tackles
73% (11/15)	46% (13/28)
Duels won
57	45
Clearances
21	5
Interceptions
6	13
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	5
xGOT faced
0.32	2.94
Goals prevented
-0.68	0.94

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Foster L. 🟨,
25', 1 - 0, Malen D. ⚽, Kamara B. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', Digne L. 🟨,
59', Tchaouna L. ↓, Bruun Larsen J. ↑,
59', Anthony J. ↓, Broja A. ↑,
63', 2 - 0, Malen D. ⚽, Rogers M. (A),
67', Watkins O. ↓, Buendia E. ↑,
67', McGinn J. ↓, Guessand E. ↑,
69', Foster L. ↓, Ugochukwu L. ↑,
78', 2 - 1, Ugochukwu L. ⚽, Hartman Q. (A),
82', Laurent J. ↓, Flemming Z. ↑,
84', Cash M. ↓, Lindelof V. ↑,
84', Malen D. ↓, Barkley R. ↑,
90', Bogarde L. ↓, Onana A. ↑,
90+1', Buendia E. 🟨,
90+3', Martinez E. 🟨,
90+10', Buendia E. ↓, Maatsen I. ↑,
90+10', Esteve M. ↓, Worrall J. ↑,

Chances of winning

Aston Villa
59%

Draw
24.3%

Burnley
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.4%

22.3%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.6%

21.6%

16.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Burnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Aston Villa - Burnley Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.56)	3.94 ↓ (4.29)	5.74 ↓ (5.86)	4.6% (4.6%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Aston Villa - Burnley?

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 16 - 72.7%). Burnley (votes: 3 - 13.6%). Tie (votes: 3 - 13.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -1 - Aston Villa (1.97) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Aston Villa (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Aston Villa (2.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Aston Villa will win (48 of 59 users predict this - 81.36%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.42% – 91.3%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 26 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 20 - 76.9%). Burnley (votes: 3 - 11.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 11.5%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 3.
Aston Villa is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Burnley has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
Burnley may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Aston Villa is the team to beat.
There will not play in Aston Villa: Barkley R. (Lacking Match Fitness) Mings T. (Injury) Onana A. (Hamstring Injury) Tielemans Y. (Calf Injury)
There will not play in Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Knee Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Roberts C. (Groin Injury)
There are questionable in Aston Villa: Martinez E. (Calf Injury) Sancho J. (Illness)
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.7:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Aston Villa won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).

How many head-to-head matches has Aston Villa won against Burnley?

Aston Villa has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Burnley won against Aston Villa?

Burnley has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Aston Villa - Burnley were as follows:

30.12.2023 Aston Villa - Burnley 3:2

27.08.2023 Burnley - Aston Villa 1:3

Latest results of Aston Villa

02.10.2025 Feyenoord - Aston Villa 0:2 ✺

28.09.2025 Aston Villa - Fulham 3:1 ✺

25.09.2025 Aston Villa - Bologna 1:0 ✺

21.09.2025 Sunderland - Aston Villa 1:1 ✺

16.09.2025 Brentford - Aston Villa 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Burnley

27.09.2025 Manchester City - Burnley 5:1 ✺

23.09.2025 Burnley - Cardiff City 1:2 ✺

20.09.2025 Burnley - Nottingham Forest 1:1 ✺

14.09.2025 Burnley - Liverpool 0:1 ✺

30.08.2025 Manchester United - Burnley 3:2 ✺

English Premier League Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Arsenal	32	21	7	4	62:24	38	70
2	Manchester City	31	19	7	5	63:28	35	64
3	Manchester Utd	31	15	10	6	56:43	13	55
4	Aston Villa	32	16	7	9	43:38	5	55
5	Liverpool	32	15	7	10	52:42	10	52
6	Chelsea	32	13	9	10	53:41	12	48
7	Brentford	32	13	8	11	48:44	4	47
8	Everton	32	13	8	11	39:37	2	47
9	Brighton	32	12	10	10	43:37	6	46
10	Sunderland	32	12	10	10	33:36	-3	46
11	Bournemouth	32	10	15	7	48:49	-1	45
12	Fulham	32	13	5	14	43:46	-3	44
13	Crystal Palace	31	11	9	11	35:36	-1	42
14	Newcastle	32	12	6	14	45:47	-2	42
15	Leeds	31	7	12	12	37:48	-11	33
16	Nottingham	32	8	9	15	32:44	-12	33
17	West Ham	32	8	8	16	40:57	-17	32
18	Tottenham	32	7	9	16	40:51	-11	30
19	Burnley	32	4	8	20	33:63	-30	20
20	Wolves	32	3	8	21	24:58	-34	17

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Relegation ~ Championship