Cardiff City vs Luton Town – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

14/02/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Cardiff City Stadium (Cardiff).

League One - Round 32
Referee: Yates O. (Eng)

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
1.50	0.81
Ball possession
60%	40%
Total shots
18	3
Shots on target
7	1
Big chances
3	1
Corner kicks
7	3
Passes
82% (433/527)	76% (267/351)
Yellow cards
3	2
Expected goals (xG)
1.50	0.81
xG on target (xGOT)
2.10	0.88
Total shots
18	3
Shots on target
7	1
Shots off target
6	2
Blocked shots
5	0
Shots inside the box
10	1
Shots outside the box
8	2
Hit the woodwork
1	0
Big chances
3	1
Corner kicks
7	3
Touches in opposition box
29	12
Accurate through passes
1	0
Offsides
2	3
Free kicks
17	10
Passes
82% (433/527)	76% (267/351)
Long passes
30% (17/56)	38% (17/45)
Passes in final third
71% (107/150)	64% (72/113)
Crosses
32% (6/19)	17% (2/12)
Expected assists (xA)
1.71	0.67
Throw ins
21	24
Fouls
10	17
Tackles
50% (11/22)	58% (7/12)
Duels won
63	43
Clearances
16	31
Interceptions
14	15
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	1
Goalkeeper saves
0	4
xGOT faced
0.88	2.10
Goals prevented
-0.12	-0.90

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (3 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Turnbull D. ⚽, Colwill J. (A),
13', Turnbull D. 🟨,
18', Bagan J. 🟨,
20', 1 - 1, Clark J. (Penalty Awarded),
37', 2 - 1, Colwill J. ⚽, Tanner O. (A),
42', 3 - 1, Ng P. ⚽, Robertson A. (A),
45+1', Lonwijk N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Kodua G. ↓, Al Hamadi A. ↑,
55', Bagan J. ↓, Kpakio R. ↑,
64', Trott N. 🟨,
66', Johnson J. ↓, Morris S. ↑,
66', Cole D. ↓, Wells N. ↑,
69', Willock C. ↓, Ashford C. ↑,
69', Kellyman O. ↓, Robinson C. ↑,
69', Colwill J. ↓, Colwill R. ↑,
73', Richards J. ↓, van den Berg D. ↑,
76', Palmer K. 🟨,
89', Robertson A. ↓, Lawlor D. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Cardiff City
54.4%

Draw
24.3%

Luton Town
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.1%

27%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

26.2%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cardiff City's performance.

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+3%)

Cardiff City - Luton Town Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.92)	3.87 ↑ (3.42)	4.41 ↑ (3.69)	5.6% (8.6%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Cardiff City - Luton Town?

Users Predictions: Cardiff City will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Cardiff City will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.

Preview Facts

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 7).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 1.
Cardiff is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Luton has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
In this match, Cardiff is seen as the favorite.
There will not play in Cardiff: Colwill R. (Ankle Injury) King E. (Knee Injury) Lawlor D. (Inactive) Salech Y. (Inactive) Wintle R. (Red Card)
There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E. (Knee Injury) Baptiste S. (Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Luton: Bramall C. (Inactive)
In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.2:1).
Including home matches between the teams, Cardiff won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 1.3:1.5).

How many head-to-head matches has Cardiff City won against Luton Town?

Cardiff City has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Luton Town won against Cardiff City?

Luton Town has won 4 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Cardiff City - Luton Town were as follows:

23.08.2025 Luton Town - Cardiff City 0:1

11.03.2025 Cardiff City - Luton Town 1:2

06.11.2024 Luton Town - Cardiff City 1:0

31.01.2023 Luton Town - Cardiff City 1:0

30.08.2022 Cardiff City - Luton Town 1:2

Latest results of Cardiff City

07.02.2026 Rotherham United - Cardiff City 0:3 ✺

31.01.2026 Burton Albion - Cardiff City 2:2 ✺

27.01.2026 Cardiff City - Barnsley 4:0 ✺

24.01.2026 Cardiff City - Stockport County 1:1 ✺

17.01.2026 Bradford City - Cardiff City 1:2 ✺

Latest results of Luton Town

07.02.2026 Luton Town - Bradford City 2:1 ✺

31.01.2026 Luton Town - Blackpool 1:0 ✺

27.01.2026 Huddersfield Town - Luton Town 1:0 ✺

24.01.2026 Plymouth Argyle - Luton Town 1:0 ✺

17.01.2026 Luton Town - Lincoln City 2:2 ✺

English League One Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lincoln	39	25	9	5	74:34	40	84
2	Cardiff	39	23	8	8	73:41	32	77
3	Bolton	39	17	15	7	55:39	16	66
4	Bradford City	39	19	8	12	49:44	5	65
5	Stockport County	37	17	9	11	51:48	3	60
6	Stevenage	38	17	9	12	41:38	3	60
7	Plymouth	39	18	5	16	60:54	6	59
8	Reading	39	15	13	11	57:51	6	58
9	Huddersfield	39	16	9	14	59:51	8	57
10	Wycombe	39	15	11	13	55:43	12	56
11	Luton	39	15	10	14	52:49	3	55
12	Peterborough	38	15	5	18	57:52	5	50
13	Barnsley	37	13	11	13	59:60	-1	50
14	AFC Wimbledon	38	14	8	16	49:55	-6	50
15	Mansfield	37	12	13	12	47:41	6	49
16	Leyton Orient	38	14	6	18	55:62	-7	48
17	Doncaster	38	13	8	17	41:59	-18	47
18	Burton	39	12	10	17	44:54	-10	46
19	Wigan	38	11	12	15	41:51	-10	45
20	Exeter	39	11	9	19	42:52	-10	42
21	Blackpool	39	11	9	19	46:63	-17	42
22	Rotherham	38	9	9	20	35:58	-23	36
23	Northampton	39	9	8	22	33:56	-23	35
24	Port Vale	36	7	10	19	29:49	-20	31

      Promotion ~ Championship
      Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )
      Relegation ~ League Two