Cardiff City vs Luton Town – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

14/02/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Cardiff City Stadium (Cardiff).

League One - Round 32
Referee: Yates O. (Eng)

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
1.50	0.81
Ball possession
60%	40%
Total shots
18	3
Shots on target
7	1
Big chances
3	1
Corner kicks
7	3
Passes
82% (433/527)	76% (267/351)
Yellow cards
3	2
Expected goals (xG)
1.50	0.81
xG on target (xGOT)
2.10	0.88
Total shots
18	3
Shots on target
7	1
Shots off target
6	2
Blocked shots
5	0
Shots inside the box
10	1
Shots outside the box
8	2
Hit the woodwork
1	0
Big chances
3	1
Corner kicks
7	3
Touches in opposition box
29	12
Accurate through passes
1	0
Offsides
2	3
Free kicks
17	10
Passes
82% (433/527)	76% (267/351)
Long passes
30% (17/56)	38% (17/45)
Passes in final third
71% (107/150)	64% (72/113)
Crosses
32% (6/19)	17% (2/12)
Expected assists (xA)
1.71	0.67
Throw ins
21	24
Fouls
10	17
Tackles
50% (11/22)	58% (7/12)
Duels won
63	43
Clearances
16	31
Interceptions
14	15
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	1
Goalkeeper saves
0	4
xGOT faced
0.88	2.10
Goals prevented
-0.12	-0.90

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (3 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Turnbull D. ⚽, Colwill J. (A),
13', Turnbull D. 🟨,
18', Bagan J. 🟨,
20', 1 - 1, Clark J. (Penalty Awarded),
37', 2 - 1, Colwill J. ⚽, Tanner O. (A),
42', 3 - 1, Ng P. ⚽, Robertson A. (A),
45+1', Lonwijk N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Kodua G. ↓, Al Hamadi A. ↑,
55', Bagan J. ↓, Kpakio R. ↑,
64', Trott N. 🟨,
66', Johnson J. ↓, Morris S. ↑,
66', Cole D. ↓, Wells N. ↑,
69', Willock C. ↓, Ashford C. ↑,
69', Kellyman O. ↓, Robinson C. ↑,
69', Colwill J. ↓, Colwill R. ↑,
73', Richards J. ↓, van den Berg D. ↑,
76', Palmer K. 🟨,
89', Robertson A. ↓, Lawlor D. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Cardiff City
54.4%

Draw
24.3%

Luton Town
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.1%

27%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

26.2%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cardiff City's performance.

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+3%)

Cardiff City - Luton Town Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.92)	3.87 ↑ (3.42)	4.41 ↑ (3.69)	5.6% (8.6%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Cardiff City - Luton Town?

Users Predictions: Cardiff City will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Cardiff City will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.

Preview Facts

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 7).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 1.
Cardiff is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Luton has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
In this match, Cardiff is seen as the favorite.
There will not play in Cardiff: Colwill R. (Ankle Injury) King E. (Knee Injury) Lawlor D. (Inactive) Salech Y. (Inactive) Wintle R. (Red Card)
There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E. (Knee Injury) Baptiste S. (Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Luton: Bramall C. (Inactive)
In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.2:1).
Including home matches between the teams, Cardiff won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 1.3:1.5).

How many head-to-head matches has Cardiff City won against Luton Town?

Cardiff City has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Luton Town won against Cardiff City?

Luton Town has won 4 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Cardiff City - Luton Town were as follows:

23.08.2025 Luton Town - Cardiff City 0:1

11.03.2025 Cardiff City - Luton Town 1:2

06.11.2024 Luton Town - Cardiff City 1:0

31.01.2023 Luton Town - Cardiff City 1:0

30.08.2022 Cardiff City - Luton Town 1:2

Latest results of Cardiff City

07.02.2026 Rotherham United - Cardiff City 0:3 ✺

31.01.2026 Burton Albion - Cardiff City 2:2 ✺

27.01.2026 Cardiff City - Barnsley 4:0 ✺

24.01.2026 Cardiff City - Stockport County 1:1 ✺

17.01.2026 Bradford City - Cardiff City 1:2 ✺

Latest results of Luton Town

07.02.2026 Luton Town - Bradford City 2:1 ✺

31.01.2026 Luton Town - Blackpool 1:0 ✺

27.01.2026 Huddersfield Town - Luton Town 1:0 ✺

24.01.2026 Plymouth Argyle - Luton Town 1:0 ✺

17.01.2026 Luton Town - Lincoln City 2:2 ✺

English League One Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lincoln ✔	42	28	9	5	79:36	43	93
2	Cardiff	41	24	9	8	76:42	34	81
3	Bradford City	42	21	8	13	52:46	6	71
4	Bolton	42	18	16	8	59:44	15	70
5	Stockport County	40	19	10	11	59:50	9	67
6	Stevenage	41	19	10	12	43:38	5	67
7	Plymouth	42	19	6	17	66:58	8	63
8	Huddersfield	42	17	11	14	65:56	9	62
9	Reading	43	16	14	13	62:55	7	62
10	Luton	41	17	10	14	57:50	7	61
11	Wycombe	43	16	12	15	63:51	12	60
12	Barnsley	40	14	12	14	63:65	-2	54
13	Mansfield	40	13	14	13	50:43	7	53
14	Doncaster	42	15	8	19	43:64	-21	53
15	Wigan	42	13	13	16	46:56	-10	52
16	Peterborough	41	15	6	20	60:58	2	51
17	Burton	43	13	12	18	46:56	-10	51
18	Blackpool	43	14	9	20	51:65	-14	51
19	Leyton Orient	42	14	8	20	57:66	-9	50
20	AFC Wimbledon	42	14	8	20	49:63	-14	50
21	Exeter	43	12	11	20	47:55	-8	47
22	Rotherham	41	9	10	22	36:62	-26	37
23	Northampton	41	9	8	24	34:60	-26	35
24	Port Vale	39	8	10	21	30:54	-24	34

      Promotion ~ Championship
      Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )
      Relegation ~ League Two

Clinched Spots for Teams

Lincoln is Qualified for Championship