Notts County vs Carlisle United – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football English League Two Notts County - Carlisle United
Result
1:0
28/01/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • ENGLAND: League Two - Round 29
  • Referee: Byrne A. (Eng)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomSky Sports+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.830.56
Ball Possession
49%51%
Goal Attempts
1110
Shots on Goal
54
Shots off Goal
24
Blocked Shots
42
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
22
Shots inside the Box
65
Shots outside the Box
55
Hit the Woodwork
01
Headed Goals
10
Goalkeeper Saves
44
Free Kicks
118
Offsides
11
Fouls
811
Yellow Cards
22
Throw-ins
1822
Touches in the Opposition Box
2014
Passes
83% (438/526)85% (460/543)
Passes in the final third
67% (81/121)76% (112/147)
Crosses
15% (2/13)10% (2/21)
Tackles
38% (8/21)53% (9/17)
Clearances Total
3117
Interceptions
126

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 14', McDonald R. 🟨,
  • 15', Fusire S. 🟨,
  • 19', 1 - 0, Jatta A. , Abbott G. (A),
  • 45+2', Hayden A. , Thomas T. ,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 63', Scott C. , Harris K. ,
  • 64', Fusire S. , Patching W. ,
  • 72', Grant C. , Edwards C. ,
  • 72', McDonald R. , Johnson Z. ,
  • 73', Jones J. , Gordon K. ,
  • 76', McArthur C. 🟨,
  • 81', Embleton E. , Robson E. ,
  • 86', McGoldrick D. 🟨,
  • 90+2', Jatta A. , Jarvis W. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Notts County
59.7%
Draw
22.2%
Carlisle United
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
56.3% 23.7% 20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.3% 22.5% 19%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Notts County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)
  • Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Notts County than the current prediction. (-0.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+0.8%)
  • Notts County - Carlisle United Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.57
    (1.66)
    4.24
    (3.95)
    5.19
    (4.66)
    6.4%
    (7.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for Notts County - Carlisle United?
  • Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Notts County will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Carlisle will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Notts County: 21.7%78.3%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Notts County won 3.
    • Notts County is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
    • Recent matches Carlisle is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
    • In this match Notts County is a favorite.
    • Last 14 head-to-head matches Notts County won 8 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 23:19 (average 1.6:1.4).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Notts County won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10:11 (average 1.4:1.6).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Notts County - Carlisle United were as follows:
    01.10.2024 Carlisle United - Notts County 0:2
    Latest results of Notts County
    Latest results of Carlisle United
    English League Two Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Crewe440010:2812
    2Grimsby43109:4510
    3Chesterfield43017:529
    4Salford43016:519
    5MK Dons42208:178
    6Gillingham42207:348
    7Bromley42206:338
    8Harrogate42206:428
    9Cambridge Utd42116:517
    10Fleetwood42117:707
    11Walsall42024:406
    12Swindon42026:7-16
    13Tranmere31206:245
    14Colchester41215:415
    15Notts Co41127:614
    16Newport41124:5-14
    17Oldham40312:3-13
    18Barnet41033:6-33
    19Barrow41032:5-33
    20Accrington30122:5-31
    21Bristol Rovers40132:6-41
    22Crawley40132:7-51
    23Shrewsbury40131:10-91
    24Cheltenham40041:10-90

          Promotion ~ League Two
          Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
          Relegation ~ National League